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Guida was actually getting the better of the standing against Koch.
Joe and Jim was like who could slow down more
Okay...don't get me wrong here. There's no question Guida will have more in his tank than Joe. I totally agree. And Guida's striking isn't awful, it's just that same bouncing around, throw a few punches to set up a TD, repeat. He was doing well in the standup vs Koch, but did he land anything that even came close to hurting Koch? I think he has one KO/TKO win in 11 years in the UFC (20+ fights I think)? And it was in 2008.
From a betting standpoint, it's hard for me to justify a ML bet on Guida. +140 for his dec line right now, -120 ML. I think his odds of finishing Joe are <10%, I really do.
Also, if it's one round each after 2 and it looks like Guida's superior gas tank will likely be the difference, there's a chance his live line might not be much worse than -120 (depending on what the fight looks like).