UFN 141 Blaydes vs Ngannou II

[SBJJ]

There is a chance of a fix with any fight, dude. That being said, what would even be the POINT of a fix for Liddell versus Tito in this fight? And why the hell would Tito ever agree to it?

When you're considering things like "what if the fight is fixed?" as Chuck's main path to victory, I'm pretty happy with taking his opponent at -200.



Seriously? Joanna might be slightly undervalued, but if you think she is somehow a better pick against Valentina than Tito against brain damaged, screwed-up Liddell, then I guess we have radically different approaches to betting.

I actually think Chuck is taking the fight mainly for the nice payday

 

[SBJJ]

Guys, agree or disagree:
Chuck seems to me with the same awakward punching technique on the mitts that we've seen from him in the past. Just a lot steps slower. He is almost like is moving under water. Other than the slower speed, his technique is the same? I don't know. Chuck retired just when I started to watch MMA.

His training vids are so bad some people think he's purposely looking bad

All I know is he was shot BEFORE he retired and almost seemed to lose his power at the end. Factor his shot chin and his hard lifestyle(combined with age) and I think it's highly unlikely he looks even decent in the cage

 

[theTKDguy]

Guys, agree or disagree:
Chuck seems to me with the same awakward punching technique on the mitts that we've seen from him in the past. Just a lot steps slower. He is almost like is moving under water. Other than the slower speed, his technique is the same? I don't know. Chuck retired just when I started to watch MMA.

Haven't seen any footage but yea chuck had terrible karateka punching technique. Made it work tho, he had power and mma wasn't as developed as it is today. I can only imagine what he looks like now. Would bet tito if I had too, he's been at least somewhat competitive in bellator last year. Is it a boxing or mma fight? Either way de la hoya just wants to make a quick buck of what's left from them, they are both shot and I wouldn't/ won't bet on this fight.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

I actually think Chuck is taking the fight mainly for the nice payday

Me too.

Guys, agree or disagree:
Chuck seems to me with the same awakward punching technique on the mitts that we've seen from him in the past. Just a lot steps slower. He is almost like is moving under water. Other than the slower speed, his technique is the same? I don't know. Chuck retired just when I started to watch MMA.

His technique is shot too, on top of his speed and accuracy both being gone. Here is Chuck hitting the mitts back in the day;



Good stuff, for the most part. The left hook could be better, but otherwise this is fairly technical striking.

Here he is hitting pads and mitts now;





Notice that on top of being exceptionally slow, he isn't putting his shoulders or hips into the blows much, either. A lot of these are arm punches.

This degradation of technique isn't unusual for very old fighters who have sustained major head trauma. Go watch Danny Williams' most recent boxing match, for instance.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Me too.

Notice that on top of being exceptionally slow, he isn't putting his shoulders or hips into the blows much, either. A lot of these are arm punches.

This degradation of technique isn't unusual for very old fighters who have sustained major head trauma. Go watch Danny Williams' most recent boxing match, for instance.

Bored, down a rabbit hole, Tito says he thinks Chuck was playing it up, sandbagging. Mehhhh, whatever. But fuckin' eh I'll be watching that shit...

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Notice that on top of being exceptionally slow, he isn't putting his shoulders or hips into the blows much, either. A lot of these are arm punches.

Now that you said it, I can see it.
And he is getting tired hitting the mits with just an arm punch.

I think it is wrong to get advantage of some old, shot fighters to make money. Even if it is not a mismatch, like in this instance, you are putting them in a fight. Kimbo-Dada was not a mismatch, but they were both so unfit to fight, that they could die from exhaustion alone, not from beating each other.

(my post are full of grammatical mistakes, it's not even funny. my english is bad and I don't check for spelling or other mistakes too)

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Are they any 80% and more sure winners in that China card or?
Holland, Mueller, Xiaonan... thoughts?

Anybody just betting all the hometown fighters? I don't think it's the worst idea ever.

 

[ill800]

There is a chance of a fix with any fight, dude. That being said, what would even be the POINT of a fix for Liddell versus Tito in this fight? And why the hell would Tito ever agree to it?

When you're considering things like "what if the fight is fixed?" as Chuck's main path to victory, I'm pretty happy with taking his opponent at -200.



Seriously? Joanna might be slightly undervalued, but if you think she is somehow a better pick against Valentina than Tito against brain damaged, screwed-up Liddell, then I guess we have radically different approaches to betting.

It’s about value more than anything

I’m not questioning your play on Tito, I’m questioning the size of the play. Personally I think it’s irresponsible betting that much of your bankroll on a golden boy retirement home fight, with two mma dinosaurs, even if one is completely shot.

Why do you think lines have hovered around -215-250 on Tito for a month? Meanwhile Lauren mueller is -420. Seems a bit odd. Like it’s a trap line

I’d assume most sharp action is staying away from this fight and for good reason.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Personally I think it’s irresponsible betting that much of your bankroll on a golden boy retirement home fight, with two mma dinosaurs, even if one is completely shot.

This makes no mathematical sense. It's easier to get a read on 1 fight and bet more substantially on it than bet on 5 less certain fights you put smaller amounts on. You do reduce your risk in the latter instance, but also one's potential profits.

I'm really amazed that you have such hesitation in a fight where one combatant is still a semi-competent fighter that moves and reacts okay and the other is a disaster waiting to happen who desperately needs a paycheck, has lost a large amount of muscle mass, and gets winded after a few awful punches on the mitts.

YET you simultaneously feel confident placing 2.5 units or so on Joanna against a bigger, better striker?

Why do you think lines have hovered around -215-250 on Tito for a month? Meanwhile Lauren mueller is -420. Seems a bit odd. Like it’s a trap line

By this logic, no one should ever bet when they think a line is off in MMA. Could be a "trap", after all! You're also ignoring two key points;

-Now a week out, Tito has ballooned up to -300 and higher, as people get down to business and realize the fight will go on as scheduled.

-Whether because of his fanbase or other factors, Liddell has always been grossly overrated by the betting public. Look at this shit;

https://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Chuck-Liddell-114

Jardine he opened at -285, closed at -400. Against Rashad he started at -215, closed at -250. Shogun opened at -160, closed at -180. Even against Franklin he started at -115, closed at -130.

All "traps" too, huh?

I’d assume most sharp action is staying away from this fight and for good reason.

How do you know this?

 

[Cockadoodle]

Seriously? Joanna might be slightly undervalued, but if you think she is somehow a better pick against Valentina than Tito against brain damaged, screwed-up Liddell, then I guess we have radically different approaches to betting.

Slightly digressing - watched a 3min video of Valentina sparing thug rose easier today, she looked sharp and mean. Rose looked like she was only surviving. Unless the weight cuts have been killing JJ I can only see Valentina winning.

 

[Cockadoodle]

Also just rewatched Ngannou Blades1, I should have done that before slagging Ngannou yesterday. I think he has a real chance. Ngannou striking looked good and if it has improved at since it is likely he will clip Blades again. His lead uppercut straight left landed at will. He stuffed the majority of takedowns and when he was on the ground he pretty much got straight back up.

Blades has been wrestling his whole life so it is unlikely his wrestling will be greatly different from that fight. Cardio is a huge factor, they were both tired after round 2 (Ngannou more so) if it went to the third blades probably would have gained the ascendancy on the ground due to a tiring predator but still would have lost imo.

In a 5 rounder Blades has the edge going to decision but I now think Curtis is there to be hit and Ngannou is going to finish him inside the first couple.

 

[Card]

Short Notice:
- Louis Smolka vs. Su Mudaerji (announced 1 week ago)
- Vince Morales in for Frankie Saenz, vs. Yadong Song (1.5 week notice)
- Liu Pingyuan vs. Martin Day (announced 1.5 week ago)
- David Zawada in for Elizeu Zaleski, vs. Jingliang Li (2 weeks notice) [announced 1 month ago for Jingliang]
- Kevin Holland vs. John Phillips (announced 3 weeks ago)
- Lauren Mueller in for Shana Dobson, vs Yanan Wu (1 month notice)
- Song Kenan vs. Alex Morono (announced 1 month ago)

Ring Rust:
- Pavlovich 364 days

Returning from TKO loss:
- Overeem x2 (via Ngannou and Blaydes)
- Coulter x3 (via Rocha, Tuivasa and Sherman)
- Kondo (via Botelho)

UFC debut:
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Vince Morales (Dana White's Contender lost via Sub)
- Martin Day (Dana White's Contender lost via UD)
- Su Mudaerji

 

[Kyle Stephens]

Slightly digressing - watched a 3min video of Valentina sparing thug rose easier today, she looked sharp and mean. Rose looked like she was only surviving. Unless the weight cuts have been killing JJ I can only see Valentina winning.

Honestly I don't know if I should say it, but I hate Shevchenko. Maybe not her, but her style. It's boring as fuck, I would rather watch Ngannou-Lewis on repeat than spend 2 minutes watching her backing up the whole fight and throwing the same combo or going for the clinch every time someone closes the distance on her too much.

These odds are a little strange to me because I can see Jedrzejczyk being at least competitive in every area of the fight. I know she lost a bunch of fights to Val in straight MT, and I saw them too. Both of them don't fight anything like that in the octagon, though. I think Jedrzejczyk's style is better suited for MMA. Valentina is the stronger girl and can have her way with Jedrzejczyk in the clinch. But I think Joanna has good footwork to stay outside and avoid the clinch altogether. If they don't end up in the clinch a bunch of times and Valentina throwing Joanna like a ragdoll, I can see an upset coming, I don't know... Just stay outside and pepper her with jabs and legkicks. It's going to be very hard fight for JJ, but I wish her the best and it will be amazing if she become champ in another division.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Liking the Leech here. Dont know where this "hes a stand and bang fighter" notion comes from. Dude looked measured as fuck against Abe with good shot selection and cardio to boot, yeah kinda shit the bed against the Celtic Kid but I'll give him a pass. If you ain't cheating you ain't trying.

Zawada looked live as fuck against hot chocolate but I honestly dont rate Robert's that highly and his chin is very suspect. Dude got rocked by toes to the cheek lol.

I have trouble seeing David stopping Leech, yeah Leech can get rocked but his cardio is real good and he recovers quick. Given Leeches output and aggression plus home cooking maybe I favor him to win here. -145 is a good price imo.

I still don't really get the Matthews fight. Still doesn't really make sense. Matthews showed massive improvement and looked huge. Leech was taking flush right hands and got dropped hard in every round from what I remember.

 

[FireBurnsThings]

I like Blaydes over Francis. We've seen that a wrestling focused game plan can work against Francis and Blaydes is a guy that's all about wrestling focused game plans. In the lead up to the Stipe fight I was fading Francis. He knocked out 2 HW's with glass chins and hadn't shown much else than raw power in my opinion. He built up this mystique about him and was propelled to the top. I felt he was vulnerable to that style of fight and I cashed in on Stipe. I think this is the same scenario, except with a better wrestler. I think Blaydes by TKO is a good look as well. Looking at the Stipe fight, if Blaydes was in the same positions I feel he could have finished the fight - I thibk he has superior cardio.

I like Overeem over Pavlovich. Overeem is vastly more experienced, I can't go against a veteran of his caliber when matched-up against a guy like Pavlovich in his debut. At first i was feeling this is a DNB. But after watching tape of Pavlovich I'm comfortable betting on Overeem.

 

[ill800]

This makes no mathematical sense. It's easier to get a read on 1 fight and bet more substantially on it than bet on 5 less certain fights you put smaller amounts on. You do reduce your risk in the latter instance, but also one's potential profits.

I'm really amazed that you have such hesitation in a fight where one combatant is still a semi-competent fighter that moves and reacts okay and the other is a disaster waiting to happen who desperately needs a paycheck, has lost a large amount of muscle mass, and gets winded after a few awful punches on the mitts.

YET you simultaneously feel confident placing 2.5 units or so on Joanna against a bigger, better striker?



By this logic, no one should ever bet when they think a line is off in MMA. Could be a "trap", after all! You're also ignoring two key points;

-Now a week out, Tito has ballooned up to -300 and higher, as people get down to business and realize the fight will go on as scheduled.

-Whether because of his fanbase or other factors, Liddell has always been grossly overrated by the betting public. Look at this shit;

https://www.bestfightodds.com/fighters/Chuck-Liddell-114

Jardine he opened at -285, closed at -400. Against Rashad he started at -215, closed at -250. Shogun opened at -160, closed at -180. Even against Franklin he started at -115, closed at -130.

All "traps" too, huh?



How do you know this?

you can go by the kelly criterion or the polar bear criterion.

You seem to get pretty annoyed by anyone who challenges your plays and there amounts

How much of your bankroll did you risk on bohtelo again? And how did that work out for you?

Tito ballooned up to 300 from 250? Ballooned? 50 points is nothing

Are you really comparing lines from 10 years ago to today?

And yea I’d rather risk way less to win the same amount on a legit matchup in the ufc vs a golden boy mma match in Inglewood California between two guys in their late 40s

Schevchenko has never had power. She is counter striker. Johanna is a high output pressure fighter who has only lost 2 times in wmma, to the same girl. And the first loss was mostly due to a bad weight cut. The second fight she was starting to take over after she got her confidence

Yea I’ll take the +280, thx. +ev moves

Betting huge on low level wmma matches and golden boy retirement home fights is not +ev, no matter which way you slice it

 

[theTKDguy]

Also just rewatched Ngannou Blades1, I should have done that before slagging Ngannou yesterday. I think he has a real chance. Ngannou striking looked good and if it has improved at since it is likely he will clip Blades again. His lead uppercut straight left landed at will. He stuffed the majority of takedowns and when he was on the ground he pretty much got straight back up.

Blades has been wrestling his whole life so it is unlikely his wrestling will be greatly different from that fight. Cardio is a huge factor, they were both tired after round 2 (Ngannou more so) if it went to the third blades probably would have gained the ascendancy on the ground due to a tiring predator but still would have lost imo.

In a 5 rounder Blades has the edge going to decision but I now think Curtis is there to be hit and Ngannou is going to finish him inside the first couple.

Just watched their first fight too lol. I'm liking ngannou a lot. Most of us are fading ngannou because of his terrible performance against derrick, but I'm 99% sure he won't fight like that against wrestler blaydes. He was afraid of getting ko'ed against lewis imo (could also believe the theory some of you talked about that he was paid to throw the fight, he did literally nothing in that fight). It's a wholeee different fight. Blaydes had a hard time getting the td, and couldn't do much when he got him down. ngannou is definitely one of the strongest hws ever, he's way too hard to control on the ground, he just powers through. His striking has definitely improved too. I think he sleeps curtis sooner or later, too bad his ml will most likely be the same as his ko line lol.

If he comes out gun shy again i'll be pissed, this is his fight to lose.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Hey guys. Not loving this card for betting.

Only bet for now is Curtis Blaydes via TKO/KO/DQ at +110. I know this has been discussed to death so Im not going to engage in another endless exchange.

Liking Pavlovich ITD at +146. Waiting for his KO line.

 

[theTKDguy]

Heey well ngannou says there's 60% chance he submits curtis, 30% ko and 10% dec.

 

[Tyrrax]

It’s about value more than anything

I’m not questioning your play on Tito, I’m questioning the size of the play. Personally I think it’s irresponsible betting that much of your bankroll on a golden boy retirement home fight, with two mma dinosaurs, even if one is completely shot.

Why do you think lines have hovered around -215-250 on Tito for a month? Meanwhile Lauren mueller is -420. Seems a bit odd. Like it’s a trap line

I’d assume most sharp action is staying away from this fight and for good reason.

Most of the sharps I know are already on Tito, some quite heavily, no idea why the lines are still idiotic, he should be -2000 as far as I'm concerned.