Today I tortured myself by watching the last 4 fights of Paige VanZant and the last 3 fights of Rachael Ostovich, two fighters I had blissfully never seen before.
My conclusion? They're both awful and have no business being in the UFC, let alone as the co-main of this card. Does that mean there isn't no opportunity to make money? Of course there is!
In the stand-up, which I anticipate there being long stretches of, which most (sane) people will use to grab a beer, Ostovich actually has the technical edge, as she can throw a competent jab (!!!) and her leg kicks are thrown more accurately than VanZant's attempts. Unfortunately, she has the reach of a midget, throws a strike at a time, and doesn't come forward, meaning VanZant's longer limbs, higher rate of activity, and genuinely good circling away from the power will be enough to win on the judge's cards.
Let's also not forget that Ostovich has a horrendous chin and is badly bothered by even the mildest contact, whereas VanZant, if nothing else, is tough and has plenty of heart, taking a beating against Rose Namajunas.
Now lets look at the grappling. Despite her much ballyhooed judo and wrestling background, Ostovich sucks at both, and her takedowns are laughable. On the flipside, VanZant has horrendous takedown defense. And yet, I doubt VanZant gets taken down so easily. Why?
Well, when she stopped going for the idiotic head-and-arm throws in the clinch against Jessica Rose-Clark, she suddenly wasn't THAT trivial to take down, with Rose-Clark ending up once on her own back. Jessy Jess sucks, but she is bigger, stronger, and a better grappler than Ostovich, so that's an encouraging sign.
But let's say the fight does go to the ground. VanZant is easy to GnP, but considering Ostovich has none, it's a non-issue. Ostovich is even easier to GnP, but considering VanZant has none, it's a non-issue, too!
However, VanZant does have some sweeps, reversals, and is pretty good at kicking off the cage. Ostovich looked astonishingly awful off her back against de la Rosa, like someone on their first day of BJJ.
Essentially, Ostovich's grappling consists of a sloppy armbar and little else. Luckily, for those who have seen the Rose Namajunas fight, we know Paige VanZant has hyper-flexible arms, managing to roll out of two tight Namajunas armbars that would have fucked up many other fighter's arms in that spot. Needless to say, Namajunas' armbar is far more technical, with more extension, and more physical strength applied than the lousy crap we've seen from Ostovich.
It's also worth mentioning that Ostovich, in addition to having a weak chin, tends to fade in fights and give up. VanZant fights hard until the bitter end. In a match between two shit combatants, that can often be the difference.
There is some risk here, as VanZant can fight like an idiot, get put repeatedly on her back and lose rounds, or give up her neck when Ostovich takes her back (which she is decent at, even if she is easy to shrug off from there). However, I think we're assuming a level of competence from Ostovich she has never shown, including not folding to adversity, and an especially bad VanZant. (Who is improving from bout to bout, if far more slowly than she should be)
I bet 2u on Paige VanZant, a lighter bet than I would like, but again, there is some danger.
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