UFN 144 on ESPN+ 2 Assuncao vs Moraes II

[BaruchSpinoza]

I agree that Rakic is going places in the division. Disagree about Walker, I think he has a lot of potential as well, but there are still too many unknowns to know for sure.

Ledet did not look good against Rakic, but Ledet doing this to Walker running in with that chin up is definitely conceivable:



Niceto to see such an authoritative stoppage by the ref: "Maybe stop hitting him sir... Oh, sorry, didn't realise you weren't done, proceed sir..."

 

[usernamee]

When a bettor says they are watching tape on someone like Demian Maia, does that mean they are a newer fan who hasn't seen every single one of his previous 28 fights in the UFC? Or have you seen at least some of them and you are re-watching them again to refresh your memory even though you saw them before? Just curious because I very rarely re-watch old fights and it would feel like a real chore to do so if I had to.

I would never rewatch a guy like Demian Maia because what he does is so inprinted in my mind but I have started rewatching older fights more and more since i've noticed that my memory can be WAY OFF no matter how sure I was how a fight "looked"

 

[Cockadoodle]

Ledet did not look good against Rakic, but Ledet doing this to Walker running in with that chin up is definitely conceivable:



Niceto to see such an authoritative stoppage by the ref: "Maybe stop hitting him sir... Oh, sorry, didn't realise you weren't done, proceed sir..."

there is quite a bit of evidence out there to suggest JW has a suspect chin. Whether Ledet has the power to intimidate him is arguable but i think there is a lot of hype in the current odds.

 

[mmaday4day]

I've been following his kickboxing fights for a while now. I think he get's it done against Albini.

 

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

there is quite a bit of evidence out there to suggest JW has a suspect chin

Walker was KO'd twice in regionals. Getting KO'd in regionals in the best case means your chin is mediocre, and in the worst (most likely) case your chin is weak. I could give Walker the benefit of the doubt, though, because he is a massive LHW and those KO losses were early in his career -- there's a chance that he may not have gotten his weight cut down to a science yet and those KO losses were a result of that.

 

[Dianabol]

IDK why you guys are worried about JW chin, Ledet has no power. Ledet will get rekt.

 

[raketmannen]

Walker was KO'd twice in regionals. Getting KO'd in regionals in the best case means your chin is mediocre, and in the worst (most likely) case your chin is weak.

It can also be because you are tense or nervous, looking away while you punch and don't see a counter coming etc. Not seeing a shot is usually what knocks you out more often just the force from the strike, so getting more comfortable and aware in the cage can solve some "chin issues".

 

[Dianabol]

Moicano beats Aldo, future vs the past. I bet Aldo vs 500 fighter Jeremy Stephens and I'm glad that didn't go to a 2nd round, I didn't like how competitive that fight was and I think Stephens would have taken over down the stretch.

Aldo is past his prime, he isn't as fast as he once was, his chin has weakened, he's absorbed a lot of punishment in recent years. Moicano doesn't have any KO wins but he's got some sting in his hands, Holloway isn't a power puncher either and look what he did.

IMO Moicano is the top contender in this division, a complete fighter with no weaknesses. I rate that win over Kattar highly. Moicano is hungry for that belt, Aldo is hungry for retirement. At these odds, gotta like Moicano, think he hurts Aldo and possibly finishes him.

 

[Stunna77]

Aldo is past his prime, he isn't as fast as he once was, his chin has weakened, he's absorbed a lot of punishment in recent years. Moicano doesn't have any KO wins but he's got some sting in his hands, Holloway isn't a power puncher either and look what he did.

I can understand siding with Moicano at current odds given most of what you said, but the Holloway statement is a bad take IMO. Holloway legit does that to everyone, Moicano has done it to literally no one.

 

[Dianabol]

I can understand siding with Moicano at current odds given most of what you said, but the Holloway statement is a bad take IMO. Holloway legit does that to everyone, Moicano has done it to literally no one.

What I said is true, Holloway isn't a power puncher, both Moicano and Holloway are volume strikers

No one emulates Holloway in the FW division as much as Moicano, even their physical stats are almost identical. Just because Moicano isn't geting KO/TKO's doesn't mean he doesn't have sting in his shots, dropped Swanson with a jab and completely took over the fight, don't be surprised if the same sort of thing happens vs Aldo.

Aldo wilts under pressure, he was tired when he got hurt by those shots by Holloway, Moicano doesn't bring quite the same pace as Holloway but it's similar. Very possible Moicano does something similar to what Holloway did.

 

[Stunna77]

What I said is true, Holloway isn't a power puncher, both Moicano and Holloway are volume strikers

No one emulates Holloway in the FW division as much as Moicano, even their physical stats are almost identical. Just because Moicano isn't geting KO/TKO's doesn't mean he doesn't have sting in his shots, dropped Swanson with a jab and completely took over the fight, don't be surprised if the same sort of thing happens vs Aldo.

Aldo wilts under pressure, he was tired when he got hurt by those shots by Holloway, Moicano doesn't bring quite the same pace as Holloway but it's similar. Very possible Moicano does something similar to what Holloway did.

Interesting. I am not expecting Moicano to pressure much at all, more expecting him to fight like he did vs Stephens trying to use movement and point fight. He tried to pressure Ortega and got his nose smashed and Aldo is 10x the striker Ortega is. I have seen a lot of people compare Moicano and Max and I don't see it at all outside of their frames/relying on volume instead of power.

 

[Austisthunder]

I would never rewatch a guy like Demian Maia because what he does is so inprinted in my mind but I have started rewatching older fights more and more since i've noticed that my memory can be WAY OFF no matter how sure I was how a fight "looked"

This is an interesting to me

What are your guys tape viewing habits?

Mine is to try to watch the last 3 fights of both fighters / sub in one or two prior similar style matchups

 

[Jordan3399]

What I said is true, Holloway isn't a power puncher, both Moicano and Holloway are volume strikers

No one emulates Holloway in the FW division as much as Moicano, even their physical stats are almost identical. Just because Moicano isn't geting KO/TKO's doesn't mean he doesn't have sting in his shots, dropped Swanson with a jab and completely took over the fight, don't be surprised if the same sort of thing happens vs Aldo.

Aldo wilts under pressure, he was tired when he got hurt by those shots by Holloway, Moicano doesn't bring quite the same pace as Holloway but it's similar. Very possible Moicano does something similar to what Holloway did.

Moicano hates going to toe to toe with big punchers he broke trying against Ortega and was getting pieced up by Cub and Stephens and just tried to run away when in the pocket with them. Max will go toe to toe with anyone and look fine almost always, the only person we actually saw him get out done doing that was Aldo who stunned him. So if you're relying on Moicano sitting in the pocket and pressuring like Holloway could, you're probably shit out of luck.

Also saying Aldo wilts under pressure is completely misleading, you need specific pressure not letting him reset like Max did, guys like Frankie pressured all fight and Aldo was absolute fine even in the 5th and against Stephens Aldo avoided almost all of Stephens big shots before going on the offensive and crushing him.

 

[Stunna77]

This is an interesting to me

What are your guys tape viewing habits?

Mine is to try to watch the last 3 fights of both fighters / sub in one or two prior similar style matchups

Watching tape is essential IMO as every matchup is different and there are certain things I am looking for in comparision to the style matchup. I have a similar approach to you. Even with Maia, yeah everyone knows he is looking to wrestle, but what do his entries look like, does he prefer to shoot a single then chain, etc. No reason to be lazy if you are betting significant money.

 

[Jordan3399]

I like Thiago Alves R3 at +2000 or even KO at +700, Griffin fades and has been hurt multiple time in the UFC and Alves still hits hard and can probably catch him.

 

[wack3d]

there is quite a bit of evidence out there to suggest JW has a suspect chin. Whether Ledet has the power to intimidate him is arguable but i think there is a lot of hype in the current odds.

 

[Dianabol]

Interesting. I am not expecting Moicano to pressure much at all, more expecting him to fight like he did vs Stephens trying to use movement and point fight. He tried to pressure Ortega and got his nose smashed and Aldo is 10x the striker Ortega is. I have seen a lot of people compare Moicano and Max and I don't see it at all outside of their frames/relying on volume instead of power.

Moicano hates going to toe to toe with big punchers he broke trying against Ortega and was getting pieced up by Cub and Stephens and just tried to run away when in the pocket with them. Max will go toe to toe with anyone and look fine almost always, the only person we actually saw him get out done doing that was Aldo who stunned him. So if you're relying on Moicano sitting in the pocket and pressuring like Holloway could, you're probably shit out of luck.

Also saying Aldo wilts under pressure is completely misleading, you need specific pressure not letting him reset like Max did, guys like Frankie pressured all fight and Aldo was absolute fine even in the 5th and against Stephens Aldo avoided almost all of Stephens big shots before going on the offensive and crushing him.

Look at the pace Moicano put on Kattar, Moicano out landed him 3-1 and was still looking fresh in the 3rd. Aldo don't want none of that.

 

[Soccer Steve]

Look at the pace Moicano put on Kattar, Moicano out landed him 3-1 and was still looking fresh in the 3rd. Aldo don't want none of that.

Moicano outlanded Ortega nearly 2:1 as well.

 

[null]

This is an interesting to me

What are your guys tape viewing habits?

Mine is to try to watch the last 3 fights of both fighters / sub in one or two prior similar style matchups

I will occasionally watch a fight or two for a fighter who is debuting in the UFC if it seems like an intriguing matchup or maybe one particular bout that I really can't remember well that I have already seen if I think it is pertinent. But I'd find another hobby if I couldn't remember most fights well enough for my handicapping purposes. I'm willing to listen to two dozen hours of MMA & betting podcasts every week because that is original content, but re-watching multiple UFC fights that I have already seen for both fighters for every bout on a thirteen fight card on a regular basis just for handicapping purposes sounds like torture.

 

[LiquidNuke]

Ok so I like this Sarah Frota at +210

Reminds me of when I picked Johnny Walker over Rountree. Walker fought on DWTNCS Brazil, he was unknown, overlooked and underestimated, now look at him, -280 vs Ledet.

No ones knows who Frota is, I saw her months ago when she competed on DWTNCS Brazil and she impressed me more than any of the other girls on that show did. She dominated her opponent with striking and pressure. Showed some good muay thai, solid punching power and was unfazed by anything her opponent landed.

So I was thinking Frota was just a striker but it also turns out she's a BJJ blackbelt. Frota is 31 years old, only started competing in pro MMA in 2016 but has quickly put together a 9-0 record, I think her experience in muay thai and BJJ is the reason for her fast rise. Frota trains out of Astra Fight Team, one of the better MMA gyms in Brazil.

Souza and Frota aren't so different, both Brazilian fighters with that Brazilian skillset, good muay thai and BJJ but the wrestling is lacking. Souza has a decent edge in experience here and I think that is her biggest advantage.

I just think Frota looks like a much cleaner striker, Souza is wild, throws a lot of loopy/wide punches, she's powerful and agressive but so is Frota. I think if this stays standing, Frota is going to look good. Both girls are BJJ blackbelts.

Timestapped Frota's DWTNCS fight

Why not just take fight doesn't go distance? It's a chick fight, that prop is almost always juicy.