UFN 149 on ESPN+ 7 Overeem vs Oleinik

Austisthunder said:
Sadistics u a real G

Id like to see a couple of Choi’s fights tbh brotha
Im high on Evolev and most likely gonna bet on him absent seeing something alarming from Choi to discourage me
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Here are his last 5, wouldn't bother going much further back with such a young fighter.

vs Jae Woong Kim 2


vs Young Bok Kil


vs Jae Woong Kim 1


vs Min Gu Lee


vs Rocky Lee
 
Stunna77 said:
Lots of live dogs this week, Arman Tsaryukan is one of the best prospects I have seen in awhile and his resume for a 22 year old is ridiculous. He has already soundly beaten 3 UFC vets and a handful of solid regional fighters. Islam Mak is obviously a top talent and it is probably too much too soon, but that line is way wide, Arman is live af. Took 1u +350

To me Roxy is a solid bet solely based on her mma experience gap, veteran craft, and being an absolute dog who will fight for your money. We have yet to see Antonia go up against someone who will constantly push forward and look for tds. She has a good clinch, which is where Roxy gets most of her tds, but that also means she won't be afraid to go there and Roxy may only need one td a round. At close to +300 its an easy bet imo. 1u on her as well

Shamil/Tybura seems like a toss up, I like Shamil's more technical striking and ability to stay upright to get it done in Russia, took .5u +158, will look at his decision when other books get props.

Rafael Fiziev is a fucking savage. His striking is very high level and he is training at a perfect gym for his game at Tiger. This kid has tons of potential and I feel like Magomed gives him the fight he wants. Magomed loads up on his shots too much which will leave openings for Fiziev to land heavy. Took 1.5u +154

Want to look into Golm and Clark as well. This card looked shit on paper, but sometimes these turn out to be the most profitable if wide dogs pull through.

The only favs I am interested in are too wide at the moment (Reem and Evoleov), need them both to come in a bit to consider playing them. Reem should absolutly handle Olenik, but he also should of absolutely handled Bigfoot Silva, Travis Browne, and Ben Rothwell. Even in the fights he wins he usually gets hurt at some point. He rebounded nicely vs Sergei, but lettuce not forget the two savage KO's he took before that. His chin is only going to get worse and Olenik has some knuckle dragging arms, that 80 inch reach seems primed to clip Reem while he retreats back to the fence (which he was still doing vs Pav). Olenik never goes away easily and against Reem is only takes one....with all that I am probably in around -200.
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The only thing that concerns me about Evloev is that the fight is at 145 which is Choi's natural weight class. If Evloev can not get the fight to the ground Choi has an advantage on the feet. If this match were at 135 I would have tremendous confidence in Evloev to get the win but it's not.
 
burge13 said:
How do you stop Sherdogs pop up about ad blockers showingup? Worth noting my ad blocker doesnt even block all the BS they have added anyway. 19 ads between this text box and the bottom of the page. Why would I want more ads?!
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The only thing worse is the auto log-out on my sportsbooks. I normally have to click on each one of a dozen plus tabs in between every fight on a thirteen fight UFC card to stay logged in to all of them to take advantage of making late bets or live wagers.
 
Omni1 said:
The only thing that concerns me about Evloev is that the fight is at 145 which is Choi's natural weight class. If Evloev can not get the fight to the ground Choi has an advantage on the feet. If this match were at 135 I would have tremendous confidence in Evloev to get the win but it's not.
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Evloev stated after his last fight that he was moving up to FW, so this wasn't influenced by the UFC call-up, fwiw. That said, Choi does look like a big FW.
 
I'm thinking the opposite of what has been said so far on Yakovlev-Leko Silva.

Yakovlev ran scared from Zak Cummings last fight, looked like he didn't want to fight at all. Cummings submitted him, quite easily too, I didn't watch his fight with Maia, but I have no idea how Maia couldn't tap him. But the comment from @Jordan3399 about Silva having no chance at subbing Cummings was way off imo. Not like his BJJ is great, but it could happen.

Silva looks pretty wild, does get taken down way too easily, but he doesn't accept bottom, always scrambles back to feet or threatens with subs. His one loss to Kowalkiewicz was a robbery. He clearly won rounds 1 and 2 of that fight.

With Yakovlev's 3 year lay off this seems 50-50 to me so 1u on Silva at +135.
 
Stunna77 said:
Evloev stated after his last fight that he was moving up to FW, so this wasn't influenced by the UFC call-up, fwiw. That said, Choi does look like a big FW.
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Indeed. Choi is a big 145er. I just finished watching tape on Choi. The kid is young & getting better fight to fight. He's got excellent stand up. But I don't know how good his TD defense is. Evloev is also young & getting better fight to fight. Now that I'm familiar with both up & coming prospects I'm excited for their fight. I doubt most fans will understand what a truly good match up this is. 135 M-1 champion vs 145 Top Fc champion. From a betting perspective this may be a dog or pass unless Evloev's odds get better. If Evloev can not get Choi down he's going to be in for a world of hurt.
 
zeckdo said:
I'm thinking the opposite of what has been said so far on Yakovlev-Leko Silva.

Yakovlev ran scared from Zak Cummings last fight, looked like he didn't want to fight at all. Cummings submitted him, quite easily too, I didn't watch his fight with Maia, but I have no idea how Maia couldn't tap him. But the comment from @Jordan3399 about Silva having no chance at subbing Cummings was way off imo. Not like his BJJ is great, but it could happen.

Silva looks pretty wild, does get taken down way too easily, but he doesn't accept bottom, always scrambles back to feet or threatens with subs. His one loss to Kowalkiewicz was a robbery. He clearly won rounds 1 and 2 of that fight.

With Yakovlev's 3 year lay off this seems 50-50 to me so 1u on Silva at +135.
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Cummings is a natural middleweight with a legit Black Belt in BJJ who just muscled his way to a straight armbar. Silva has largely competed at 145, has know notable BJJ experience, belt or anything to speak of but most of what he does is spam telegraphed armbar attempts from guard which might work vs cans but are very low percentage moves at a high level especially against a Sambo champ. Also trains out of a mediocre can crusher factory training camp which gave Albini, their top fighter, a BJJ brown belt then watched as he dived into an Ezekiel choke.

Think you need to watch the Daniel Swain fight for a start, he took the fight on very short notice with no training camp, gassed in about 2 minutes and was still taking Silva down at will and rocked him badly with a jab in the first. Yak is pretty underwhelming but he does have a solid counter left and given how easy Silva was rocked before and he's tendency to throw naked low kicks he probably gets early on the feet unless Silva has improved considerably. As for the grappling Yakovlev is a Russian Sambo and Wrestling champ with a considerable size advantage, levels above all the guys that comfortably outgrappled Silva before.

Not sure how you can really call his loss a robbery either, he got controlled in rounds 1 and 3, definitely took 2 but unless you want to give him a round off of failed sub attempts then he pretty clearly lost the first. At best its a coin flip fight with a guy nowhere near UFC level. Certainly wouldn't want to be gambling on Silva winning a decision like that when the fights in Yak's hometown.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Cummings is a natural middleweight with a legit Black Belt in BJJ who just muscled his way to a straight armbar. Silva has largely competed at 145, has know notable BJJ experience, belt or anything to speak of but most of what he does is spam telegraphed armbar attempts from guard which might work vs cans but are very low percentage moves at a high level especially against a Sambo champ. Also trains out of a mediocre can crusher factory training camp which gave Albini, their top fighter, a BJJ brown belt then watched as he dived into an Ezekiel choke.

Think you need to watch the Daniel Swain fight for a start, he took the fight on very short notice with no training camp, gassed in about 2 minutes and was still taking Silva down at will and rocked him badly with a jab in the first. Yak is pretty underwhelming but he does have a solid counter left and given how easy Silva was rocked before and he's tendency to throw naked low kicks he probably gets early on the feet unless Silva has improved considerably. As for the grappling Yakovlev is a Russian Sambo and Wrestling champ with a considerable size advantage, levels above all the guys that comfortably outgrappled Silva before.

Not sure how you can really call his loss a robbery either, he got controlled in rounds 1 and 3, definitely took 2 but unless you want to give him a round off of failed sub attempts then he pretty clearly lost the first. At best its a coin flip fight with a guy nowhere near UFC level. Certainly wouldn't want to be gambling on Silva winning a decision like that when the fights in Yak's hometown.
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he was inches away from finishing that armbar, that wins the round imo. so he's 21-0. he's UFC level. I didn't think Paiva was UFC level a few months ago and he looked great in his debut. I watched the Swain fight, yeah he was easily taken down and dropped by Swain, but he survived and finished him the next round. that's how I see this fight going. Yak getting the early TD and winning rd 1, but Silva taking over rd 2.
 
Leko reminds me a little of Johnny Walker but he is even younger and wasn’t knocked out. He has a lot of wild fights, gets taken down etc. but he also wins a lot. Some solid striking even if it’s wild at times. Definitely talented. I wish he came from a different camp though. That’s the same camp as Taila Santos who lost to a low level UFC fighter because of the grappling disadvantage.

Maybe he comes out and surprises us all. His opponent isn’t the greatest and was out for a long time. Leko should come out better while Yakovlev will rather be worse than better.
 
zeckdo said:
he was inches away from finishing that armbar, that wins the round imo. so he's 21-0. he's UFC level. I didn't think Paiva was UFC level a few months ago and he looked great in his debut. I watched the Swain fight, yeah he was easily taken down and dropped by Swain, but he survived and finished him the next round. that's how I see this fight going. Yak getting the early TD and winning rd 1, but Silva taking over rd 2.
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So you're assuming that Yakovlev is going gas incredibly hard based on what? He only beat Swain cause Swain had zero cardio or training camp, your making a huge assumption. Not sure how you can justify anything about him as being UFC level either, he just isn't. He's not beaten anyone remotely decent and looked bad or competitive against guys that are clearly below UFC level. His record couldn't mean less and given its clearly impacted the line it makes it a perfect opportunity to fade him. His first 16 opponents had a combined record of 17-28 and 6 were making their debut, despite that he still managed to have multiple very competitive fights. If he wants to play guard here then great, Yakovlev pretty comfortably sat in Demian Maia's guard after sweeping him in their fight.

I can see an argument for passing on Yakovlev given the layoff and inactivity as well as the line movement now. But playing Silva at anything less than a wide underdog just seems completely unjustifiable given the large gap in experience and skill. You're essentially gambling on Yakovlev to turn up as a complete shadow of himself.

Paiva did look good thats fair enough, but equally you're once again gambling on the assumption Silva will have improved a lot which given how bad his camp is, is unlikely to say the least.
 
zeckdo said:
I'm thinking the opposite of what has been said so far on Yakovlev-Leko Silva.

Yakovlev ran scared from Zak Cummings last fight, looked like he didn't want to fight at all. Cummings submitted him, quite easily too, I didn't watch his fight with Maia, but I have no idea how Maia couldn't tap him. But the comment from @Jordan3399 about Silva having no chance at subbing Cummings was way off imo. Not like his BJJ is great, but it could happen.

Silva looks pretty wild, does get taken down way too easily, but he doesn't accept bottom, always scrambles back to feet or threatens with subs. His one loss to Kowalkiewicz was a robbery. He clearly won rounds 1 and 2 of that fight.

With Yakovlev's 3 year lay off this seems 50-50 to me so 1u on Silva at +135.
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Yeah I agree, I don't get this love for Yakovlev. Hasn't fought in 2 and a half years, bout to turn 35 and dropping down a weight class

I'll just be candid, Yakovlev is kind of a wimp and he lacks aggression and output. Silva will outwork him if this stays standing. No doubt Yakovlev is a better wrestler but Silva has showed some good scrambles and subs from bottom position. The youth and activity of Silva could be too much for Yakovlev

Silva, Astra fight team product, looks like a decent Brazilian prospect, very athletic, typical Brazilian skillet with the MT & BJJ. Astra Fight team brought in a D1 wrestling coach about a year ago, so I expect the wrestling at that gym to get better.

Silva also been kinda inactive in the last two years, only fought once in 2017 and 2018 and they were short fights, haven't had the chance to see much of his game recently. Guarantee you he's improved since those Brave FC fights, he was also like 20-21 years old back then and had only been pro for a couple years.

I bet Yako misses weight too, I know he made 155 vs Maynard like 4 years ago but it's clearly not his optimal weight class, he looks like a twig. And now that he's older at 34, dropping that weight doesn't get easier.

Considering a play on Silva, biggest concern is the short notice.
 
Dianabol said:
Yeah I agree, I don't get this love for Yakovlev. Hasn't fought in 2 and a half years, bout to turn 35 and dropping down a weight class

I'll just be candid, Yakovlev is kind of a wimp and he lacks aggression and output. Silva will outwork him if this stays standing. No doubt Yakovlev is a better wrestler but Silva has showed some good scrambles and subs from bottom position. The youth and activity of Silva could be too much for Yakovlev

Silva, Astra fight team product, looks like a decent Brazilian prospect, very athletic, typical Brazilian skillet with the MT & BJJ. Astra Fight team brought in a D1 wrestling coach about a year ago, so I expect the wrestling at that gym to get better.

Silva also been kinda inactive in the last two years, only fought once in 2017 and 2018 and they were short fights, haven't had the chance to see much of his game recently. Guarantee you he's improved since those Brave FC fights, he was also like 20-21 years old back then and had only been pro for a couple years.

I bet Yako misses weight too, I know he made 155 vs Maynard like 4 years ago but it's clearly not his optimal weight class, he looks like a twig. And now that he's older at 34, dropping that weight doesn't get easier.

Considering a play on Silva, biggest concern is the short notice.
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You said all of this about Astra Fight Team on the Fortaleza card and every one of their fighters lost. I literally hit a parlay fading the whole team.
 
I agree with both of what Jordan and Dianbol stated above in parts and think this fight is a clear pass at current odds for those reasons. Can't trust Yakolev after a long, self-imposed, lay-off cutting back to 155, where he has only fought a few times in his career, now in his mid thirties. Silva is young, athletic, sets a high pace and seems to have good cardio, but he can easily be wrestled per the available tape and may have a dodgy chin. That said I also expect improvements given his age and athleticism. Yako should have a significant size advantage, but may be depleted per the above. Too many question marks around both guys to have a great read IMO.

Edit - to Jordan's point, Silva's competetion has definitely been non-ufc calibre and he has shown a clear wrestling deficiency. I am just not sure if Yakolev is the guy to take advantage.
 
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Jordan3399 said:
You said all of this about Astra Fight Team on the Fortaleza card and every one of their fighters lost. I literally hit a parlay fading the whole team.
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Frota and Souza both lost by spilt

I only played Frota and she was clear value, judges robbed her. Still her wrestling looked the best it has in that fight despite getting taken down 4 times.

Astra fight team having a D1 wrestling coach is obviously going to improve the overall wrestling of the camp
 
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LEMONZEST said:
What she lacks in natural athletic gifting she makes up for in heart and will. There is a reason she is in the UFC and it isn't her looks. She finds ways to make fights close by just pushing forward and not giving up. I don't particularly like her as a fighter but I respect heart in fighters when I see it. She has more determination than a lot of the UFC roster.
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She is clearly only on the ufc roster bc of her looks.
 
Dianabol said:
Frota and Souza both lost by spilt

I only played Frota and she was clear value, judges robbed her. Still her wrestling looked the best it has in that fight despite getting taken down 4 times.

Astra fight team having a D1 wrestling coach is obviously going to improve the overall wrestling of the camp
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Struggling to see how Frota got robbed. She was massively overweight and still pretty clearly lost the first 2 rounds, media and fan scoring supports that, she just took over as her size gassed Souza late. Even the Santos fight was a pretty BS split. Borella got the first 2 rounds clearly and that was her as around a +180 underdog. The only Astra guy that looked good was Albini who had done his camp at ATT and yet still his Astra BJJ brown belt wasn't enough to sub a kickboxer who looked like he'd never even heard of BJJ.

As for having a better wrestling coach it will help, a bit, but it didn't stop Frota getting multiple takedowns on a much larger opponent and I highly doubt it'll stop a 145er who previously displayed almost no TDD from getting handled by a former welterweight Russian wrestling champ.
 
Also for anyone wondering about Yaks absence, I've found nothing about injury's but he's still been training and doing seminars and naturally as a top level welterweight been working on his rap career.
 
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