UFN 149 on ESPN+ 7 Overeem vs Oleinik

I agree 100% w @Jordan3399 on this one. Silva fought the cream of the crop of the worst cans the Brasil regional circuit has to offer. He looks good in his fights because he is young and explosive, and also bc he’s fighting worst fighters than low level bums (just a little bit of better competition, and he shown that he needs to work a lot on his game), he’s definitely a guy w potential, but being very green is being very very nice. Once he goes to a real camp and somebody start developing that raw talent he will prob be something to watch for. But Yaklovev will be too much for him, too soon, he’s much more experienced, I think he can easily outgrind him and IMO get the best of him standing too, Yaklovev doesn’t look like much but his fights have been against much much much better competition (Paul daley, Demian Maia, Nicholas Musoke, Zak Cummings.) now, talking about the fight betting wise. Yakvolev @-150 is a fade, he’s coming from a two year layoff and coming down weight classes. I get your guys point and agree with that too. But just because we fading Yaklovev @-150 doesn’t mean Silva is a good spot @+125, you don’t get a guy moving up, fighting his first real fighter, coming from a lay-off as well at those odds and consider a good spot IMO he’s a fade too. he would need to be a much bigger dog for me to consider playing him, bc making that play is essentially gambling that Yakvolev will show up worst than ever and Silva will have the same level against much better competition that he had with those bums which are hard assumptions to make (specially since the better than mediocre competition that Silva faced he had trouble with). Again, like me I think Jordan did not make a play in Yaklovev @-150, I got him @+100 and at those odds, this price for a much much much more experienced, versatile, proven that is a mediocre but all around decent fighter, with skills that match opponent weakness, with clear win paths, and fighting at home is a spot I love tbh, and that’s why I got 2u on Yaklovev. But I would not bet him @-150
Edit: could make a bet @-150, but since the value is much smaller, would be something like 0.5 units.
 
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Kyle Stephens said:
I've been there, Tony. Relying on memories is so fucking tempting, but it's dangerous. Maybe there are people who can do it, but I can't. I've watched so many fights that I don't have place in my mind to store them all and I forget a lot. Details gets flushed out of the momory first, and there are often most important!
As far as Roxi, I think you are onto something. She has so big MMA experience edge it's insane. I don't know if she is gonna win, but for sure I am hoping. Shevchenko sisters aren't my type, too boring style and I always root for the underdog! I hope with all my heart she wins. 500 bucks seem too risky IMO, but it's your decision.
For the big boys you mentioned: I don't know if I lean any side of this kinda trashy HW fight, seems to me should be a pick 'em odds.
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After doing my due diligence, I can't say I am completely comfortable with Shamil, but I do think he's the right side. Arlovski had some success with the takedown, but I just don't know if Tybura has the gas to strategically score takedowns every round - he simply isn't that athletic. And if he can't score TDs at will, he's stuck trying to out-kickbox a Russian in Russia, who has had that type of fight countless times.

Yeah, I just get lazy and cocky, especially when money gets rolling. No need to watch *all* of Reis' 4 last fights - I know him well enough. No way I get a case of confirmation bias. <Lmaoo> It's not pleasant, but it humbles me.

And tbh, $500.. well, let's just say that mattered less last week. But I put that in last week, and it's just great value imo. I can't find Antonina's TUF fight anywhere, but she does what several inexperienced tall fighters do. She closes the distance for opponents, partly because she likes to clinch and strike, but she also looks for a takedown. Either way, she may unknowingly give Roxy, who took down a solid grappler in Sarge, extra chances to get this to the floor, where her control is impressive.

You can say Antonina is a purple belt, and whether she just finished being a blue or is on her way to a brown, she is at face value 2 levels away from Roxy in grappling, and grappling at the higher levels is about suffocating control. I just think Roxy is as dangerous as Antonina, making these odds off imo.
 
With this card being in Russia, are you guys shying away from a wmma fight like shev/roxanne since its likely to go to decisions ?
 
For this fight card i am liking alot of the underdogs.
I have an issue with Oleynik.
-His aging he is around 40 years old if anything he should retired a while back.
-Overeem isnt far better, but he would a bit younger then Oleynik.
-For Oleynik this was short notice fight.
 
APras1428 said:
With this card being in Russia, are you guys shying away from a wmma fight like shev/roxanne since its likely to go to decisions ?
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Personally I kinda always just factor it into the line and in this case losing a close decision is definitely a possibility but it doesn’t outweigh the big plus money on Roxy’s side. If she gets chewed up on the feet then finishes rounds on top some close rounds could definitely go against her, but it comes with the territory.
 
I will play only Oleksiejczuk ,
Evloev and add Cutelaba for this parlay
 
Tony J said:
I can't find Antonina's TUF fight anywhere,
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Antonina wasn't on TUF, she headlined on the eleventh episode of DWTNCS (Season 2 Episode 3). It is surely available to watch on Fight Pass.
 
is it just me or are some posters writing full out novels in this thread
 
is -585 enough Overeem v. Oleinik not going the distance? Neither have gone 5 rounds in UFC, glass chins, 40+ HW, etc.

Surprised that isn't -1000.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
I would bet Overeem if his chin was better, Oleinik has a puncher chance
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I agree with that and not to mention this is happening in Russia's/Ukraine home grounds so there would be some kind of home cooking as there is in South American fight cards always faovring the close to home town fighter.

I do like Oleinik how his an underdog in this one.
 
LeskoJohnson said:
I agree 100% w @Jordan3399 on this one. Silva fought the cream of the crop of the worst cans the Brasil regional circuit has to offer. He looks good in his fights because he is young and explosive, and also bc he’s fighting worst fighters than low level bums (just a little bit of better competition, and he shown that he needs to work a lot on his game), he’s definitely a guy w potential, but being very green is being very very nice. Once he goes to a real camp and somebody start developing that raw talent he will prob be something to watch for. But Yaklovev will be too much for him, too soon, he’s much more experienced, I think he can easily outgrind him and IMO get the best of him standing too, Yaklovev doesn’t look like much but his fights have been against much much much better competition (Paul daley, Demian Maia, Nicholas Musoke, Zak Cummings.) now, talking about the fight betting wise. Yakvolev @-150 is a fade, he’s coming from a two year layoff and coming down weight classes. I get your guys point and agree with that too. But just because we fading Yaklovev @-150 doesn’t mean Silva is a good spot @+125, you don’t get a guy moving up, fighting his first real fighter, coming from a lay-off as well at those odds and consider a good spot IMO he’s a fade too. he would need to be a much bigger dog for me to consider playing him, bc making that play is essentially gambling that Yakvolev will show up worst than ever and Silva will have the same level against much better competition that he had with those bums which are hard assumptions to make (specially since the better than mediocre competition that Silva faced he had trouble with). Again, like me I think Jordan did not make a play in Yaklovev @-150, I got him @+100 and at those odds, this price for a much much much more experienced, versatile, proven that is a mediocre but all around decent fighter, with skills that match opponent weakness, with clear win paths, and fighting at home is a spot I love tbh, and that’s why I got 2u on Yaklovev. But I would not bet him @-150
Edit: could make a bet @-150, but since the value is much smaller, would be something like 0.5 units.
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Fuck man. Good breakdown but use a paragraph once in a while lol.
 
I think we all know that on paper Reem should smash Oleinik, he has all the tools and an advantage in every area apart from on the ground... But, it's Reem. He's a special case. He's known to be a flake now, his chin it totally gone, he's so cautious now because he's scared of getting put out again and he's fighting a Russian in Russia.

If Oleinik lands a shot on that chin Reem will go down. So at these odds I just can't trust Reem, he should win, he has every reason to in a pure style vs style sense, but weird shit happened when Oleinik fights and he only needs to land one good punch.

Small play in Oleinik but I expect Reem to take him out.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Also for anyone wondering about Yaks absence, I've found nothing about injury's but he's still been training and doing seminars and naturally as a top level welterweight been working on his rap career.
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That rap video make me put 4u in him, that kid Silva have no chance, too much swag, and seriuosly, Russian gangs are not to play with.
 
Vir_Ars said:
That rap video make me put 4u in him, that kid Silva have no chance, too much swag, and seriuosly, Russian gangs are not to play with.
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100%, no wonder Woodley decided to go into rap, had to up his game to have any chance vs a contender like that.
 
Red_2 said:
Fuck man. Good breakdown but use a paragraph once in a while lol.
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Sorry bro, typed on my phone after working all day and working out. Just focused in sharing my view, and didn’t even review it. Since English is my second language prob it’s full of grammar mistakes and etc. will do a more detailed job in future posts. Thx for feedback.
 
Oleinik way more gritty than overeem. No way I would pay that much for him


This is a mostly dog card for me.
 
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