UFN 151 on ESPN+ 9 Iaquinta vs Cowboy
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Al Iaquinta vs Donald Cerrone
Figured I’d do a breakdown to kick this off. Also fwiw, I’ve been consistently betting Cerrone since I started and picking against Iaquinta.
Both guys are great fighters and I have to say from a pure skill perspective I’d rate Cerrone as maybe the better overall fighter. Despite that I think this has the potential to be a very bad match up for him.
Cerrone as a kick heavy fighter does well when he can dictate the range and isn’t pressured leaving him free to throw what he chooses. When pressured he suffers considerably as this is taken away and he’s left to box where while he’s decent I still feel he’s a couple of steps below Iaquinta at least. This weakness in boxing was also highlighted in fights such as with Masvidal where his kicking and boxing was countered hard repeatedly till he was TKO’d.
Overall then while the striking will be competitive, all the time Al comes forward pressure boxing as we saw him do so well in his last fight he should consistently win exchanges or land clean enough to get a finish. I know people will reference Cerrones last fight as he dealt with pressure pretty well, however Hernandez is a much lesser fighter than Iaquinta imo. He could easily be pushed on the backfoot by Cerrones relatively sloppy boxing and repeatedly dived into knee’s with poor takedown attempts. He also slowed considerably, and his chin didn’t look great, at least not compared to Iaquinta who aside from being briefly rocked by Masvidal has looked very tough and durable. Iaquinta also has good counters so won’t easily be pressured and given how recklessly at times Cerrone crashed forward vs Hernandez if he tries that with Iaquinta I can see him easily going to sleep. Overall then I give a significant striking edge to Iaquinta who will likely force a boxing match where Cerrone has been consistently vulnerable in the past.
Cerrone’s biggest advantage should be in the BJJ and grappling exchanges, he has developed excellent TDD and has continually gone to his submission game when the opportunity presents itself such as with Mike Perry. Cerrone also has an excellent double leg he will likely time on Iaquinta as he comes forward which he hits on almost all his opponents. It should also be noted that of Iaquinta’s 4 losses, 3 are by submission and I’d argue that Cerrone has a better sub game than any of Iaquinta’s opponents, including Khabib, who I feel is much more positional and GNP based and then Kevin Lee who has a great back take and RNC, but not a lot else. As a result a Cerrone sub does feel likely however Iaquinta has worked heavily on his sub defence with Matt Serra and after shrugging off the attempts he’s faced in his last two fights he should do a lot better on the ground than in past fights.
The difference in preparation is one reason why I give Iaquinta a big edge. Iaquinta will study his opponents and gameplan heavily to great success and with his team of Ray Longo and Matt Serra as a result I’m confident in his exploiting all the known weaknesses and mitigating the strengths of Cerrone. In comparison Cerrone doesn’t tape or gameplan well or anything for his opponents and would frequently just let his coaches tape and guide him. This I can see being his downfall if Iaquinta starts strong, which I expect, he will land hard and often early as Cerrone tries to adapt. I also think any specific prep has likely declined due to Cerrone’s departure from Jackson-Wink and Brandon Gibson as they would have been those doing any tape for him. Therefore Cerrone will likely, as he did with Hernandez, Till and others who pressured him, shoot his double leg which will be an important moment as how easily he gets Iaquinta down and what he can do if he does will likely decide the outcome of the fight as I don’t think Cerrone is likely to win on the feet. Given Iaquinta’s clear improvement in his ground game, particularly sub defence as well as he preparation and takedown defence and the fact he’s almost certainly training hard for those double legs I have to favour him.
While Cerrone can certainly win, even dominantly if he can get the fight down quickly and hit a submission, I cap Iaquinta around -180 with a KO his most likely path to victory.
Currently 2u on Iaquinta at -120.
TLDR: Cerrone better on the ground, Iaquinta better on the feet but Iaquinta will be readier and more capable of dealing with Cerrone’s strengths than Cerrone is of dealing with his.
Figured I’d do a breakdown to kick this off. Also fwiw, I’ve been consistently betting Cerrone since I started and picking against Iaquinta.
Both guys are great fighters and I have to say from a pure skill perspective I’d rate Cerrone as maybe the better overall fighter. Despite that I think this has the potential to be a very bad match up for him.
Cerrone as a kick heavy fighter does well when he can dictate the range and isn’t pressured leaving him free to throw what he chooses. When pressured he suffers considerably as this is taken away and he’s left to box where while he’s decent I still feel he’s a couple of steps below Iaquinta at least. This weakness in boxing was also highlighted in fights such as with Masvidal where his kicking and boxing was countered hard repeatedly till he was TKO’d.
Overall then while the striking will be competitive, all the time Al comes forward pressure boxing as we saw him do so well in his last fight he should consistently win exchanges or land clean enough to get a finish. I know people will reference Cerrones last fight as he dealt with pressure pretty well, however Hernandez is a much lesser fighter than Iaquinta imo. He could easily be pushed on the backfoot by Cerrones relatively sloppy boxing and repeatedly dived into knee’s with poor takedown attempts. He also slowed considerably, and his chin didn’t look great, at least not compared to Iaquinta who aside from being briefly rocked by Masvidal has looked very tough and durable. Iaquinta also has good counters so won’t easily be pressured and given how recklessly at times Cerrone crashed forward vs Hernandez if he tries that with Iaquinta I can see him easily going to sleep. Overall then I give a significant striking edge to Iaquinta who will likely force a boxing match where Cerrone has been consistently vulnerable in the past.
Cerrone’s biggest advantage should be in the BJJ and grappling exchanges, he has developed excellent TDD and has continually gone to his submission game when the opportunity presents itself such as with Mike Perry. Cerrone also has an excellent double leg he will likely time on Iaquinta as he comes forward which he hits on almost all his opponents. It should also be noted that of Iaquinta’s 4 losses, 3 are by submission and I’d argue that Cerrone has a better sub game than any of Iaquinta’s opponents, including Khabib, who I feel is much more positional and GNP based and then Kevin Lee who has a great back take and RNC, but not a lot else. As a result a Cerrone sub does feel likely however Iaquinta has worked heavily on his sub defence with Matt Serra and after shrugging off the attempts he’s faced in his last two fights he should do a lot better on the ground than in past fights.
The difference in preparation is one reason why I give Iaquinta a big edge. Iaquinta will study his opponents and gameplan heavily to great success and with his team of Ray Longo and Matt Serra as a result I’m confident in his exploiting all the known weaknesses and mitigating the strengths of Cerrone. In comparison Cerrone doesn’t tape or gameplan well or anything for his opponents and would frequently just let his coaches tape and guide him. This I can see being his downfall if Iaquinta starts strong, which I expect, he will land hard and often early as Cerrone tries to adapt. I also think any specific prep has likely declined due to Cerrone’s departure from Jackson-Wink and Brandon Gibson as they would have been those doing any tape for him. Therefore Cerrone will likely, as he did with Hernandez, Till and others who pressured him, shoot his double leg which will be an important moment as how easily he gets Iaquinta down and what he can do if he does will likely decide the outcome of the fight as I don’t think Cerrone is likely to win on the feet. Given Iaquinta’s clear improvement in his ground game, particularly sub defence as well as he preparation and takedown defence and the fact he’s almost certainly training hard for those double legs I have to favour him.
While Cerrone can certainly win, even dominantly if he can get the fight down quickly and hit a submission, I cap Iaquinta around -180 with a KO his most likely path to victory.
Currently 2u on Iaquinta at -120.
TLDR: Cerrone better on the ground, Iaquinta better on the feet but Iaquinta will be readier and more capable of dealing with Cerrone’s strengths than Cerrone is of dealing with his.
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Juan Adams isn't hot shit but I'm in doubt that the limited Bhullar can deal with his initial onslaught and heavy early pressure.
The Taleb/Siyar contest should be great.
The Taleb/Siyar contest should be great.
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2 of my favorites. I doubt Cerrone will be able to take al down. He’s showed great TDD and submission defense against Kevin Lee and Khabib.
I agree Al’s Boxing is better, and he’ll pressure Cerrone to the point of a TKO.
Al can take a punch, Cerrone will have to hit him with a huge shot/set up a head kick, which I Don’t think he’ll do in the face of Al’s pressure. 3u on Al.
I agree Al’s Boxing is better, and he’ll pressure Cerrone to the point of a TKO.
Al can take a punch, Cerrone will have to hit him with a huge shot/set up a head kick, which I Don’t think he’ll do in the face of Al’s pressure. 3u on Al.
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I like cub at dog odds. I like al a lot but I think he may be a little overrated after his last win. I think cowboy can give him problems with his kicks and knees, and you also have to consider his grappling. Small bet on cowboy isn't a bad idea imo.
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This might be a tough match up for the cowboy.
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This card fucking sucks
i think siyar is out
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With zero research and little thought I am picking Al. He survived against Kahbib in terms of the wrestling, ground game and clinch so I can't see Cowboy doing much to him there, and Al is tough as fuck, can take a shot and will just keep coming... Cowboy tends to told under that kind of pressure. Plus Cowboy has a million miles on him now, is getting older and is making his first cut to 155 in a while. Again, no research, just off the top of my head, by fight night I'll probably be all in on the cowboy
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HERE ARE MY PICKS FOR THIS EVENT ALL EASY MONEY BETS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Smith-SUB2(+115)
Bhullar-Dec(-115)
Nelson-KO2(+180)
Prepolec-Dec (No odds out yet)
Zahabi-Dec(-165)
Chiason-Dec(-650)
Barriaut-KO1(+120)
Spivak-Sub2(+130)
Katona-Dec(+130)
Burgos-Sub2(-165)
Thedorou-Dec(-105)
Iaquinta-Dec(-145)
Smith-SUB2(+115)
Bhullar-Dec(-115)
Nelson-KO2(+180)
Prepolec-Dec (No odds out yet)
Zahabi-Dec(-165)
Chiason-Dec(-650)
Barriaut-KO1(+120)
Spivak-Sub2(+130)
Katona-Dec(+130)
Burgos-Sub2(-165)
Thedorou-Dec(-105)
Iaquinta-Dec(-145)
It might be worth seeing if Cerrone starts strong, and going with Al for livebetting.
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I'm not sure Cowboy has ever started strong, habitual slow starter
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He just beat A Hernandez at LW
Yeah, true. I more so meant that if Cerrone could win the first round, getting on on Iaquinta as a dog would be a solid live game plan, betting-wise.
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Anybody else like Sanchez over Barriault? Only seen two barriault fights but he looks very average. I don’t think his wrestling will work and his striking looks sloppy. Sanchez seems like a value at -140 to me
