UFN 159 on ESPN+ 17 Rodriguez vs Stephens

Invictis said:
After watching so much tape, Stephens should take this handedly in the later rounds. If the Zabit fight was 5 rounds, Jeremy would've won, and zabit is way better than Yair(much better boxing/bjj).

But I just have this weird feeling some fuckery is going to happen in this flight, an early stoppage or some spinning shit.

Terrible analysis but I'm super blowed, might post something better later.
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Yeah even if Yair has gotten better at fighting backward I don't think he can do it for 5 rounds. I don't think his striking will do much to back the Heathen off either and range is huge to his offense/defense. I wouldn't be surprised if JS just comes out and runs right through him with pressure and better boxing but I've got most of my action on JS NSC just in case.
He could even throw in some wrestling like Edgar. If Yair can't set his feet where he wants I think his defense and boxing fail and it might be a short night.
 
Sono07 said:
Yeah even if Yair has gotten better at fighting backward I don't think he can do it for 5 rounds. I don't think his striking will do much to back the Heathen off either and range is huge to his offense/defense. I wouldn't be surprised if JS just comes out and runs right through him with pressure and better boxing but I've got most of my action on JS NSC just in case.
He could even throw in some wrestling like Edgar. If Yair can't set his feet where he wants I think his defense and boxing fail and it might be a short night.
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Yair could calf kick the fuck out of him, slow him down even more, take some of his power away, lower the risk of a reactive shot
 
ApplesVild said:
Yair could calf kick the fuck out of him, slow him down even more, take some of his power away, lower the risk of a reactive shot
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He will probably have to do something like that, to win he has to put up a lot of volume as the will be walked down by a super aggressive fighter. It takes a lot more energy to throw while moving backwards which will be hard for 5 rounds at altitude.
 
Yair in face offs is much shorter than I was expecting, thought he'd be a lot taller. Confidence increase.
 
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ApplesVild said:
Yair could calf kick the fuck out of him, slow him down even more, take some of his power away, lower the risk of a reactive shot
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Like Yair could play an outstriking distance-management game, but it's easier to do that to KZ and Yair lacked the discipline to legkick him consistently despite it being a lot easier than it is to out-legkick Stephens.
 
Gugabe said:
Like Yair could play an outstriking distance-management game, but it's easier to do that to KZ and Yair lacked the discipline to legkick him consistently despite it being a lot easier than it is to out-legkick Stephens.
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Well sure, he could, he could not. Stephens could play a pressure game, cut Yair off and push him towards the cage where he can unleash power shots, or he could not.

I don't even know if Stephens is a pressure fighter, hes a move forward fighter but I'm not sure about pressure. He follows.
 
ApplesVild said:
Well sure, he could, he could not. Stephens could play a pressure game, cut Yair off and push him towards the cage where he can unleash power shots, or he could not.

I don't even know if Stephens is a pressure fighter, hes a move forward fighter but I'm not sure about pressure. He follows.
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Didn't you hear? TFerg said his footwork sucks. So they worked on that.

Jeremy has had 3 rounds with Zabit and is looking forward to 5 rounds to adapt to Yairs style (and looking from Yairs fight with KZ, it looks like he has trouble on the back foot and does tend to get his back against the fence for clinch opportunities)
 
Applesvild is going to jerk off furiously all over this board if Yair wins, I'll tell ya that.
 
MrShady said:
Didn't you hear? TFerg said his footwork sucks. So they worked on that.

Jeremy has had 3 rounds with Zabit and is looking forward to 5 rounds to adapt to Yairs style (and looking from Yairs fight with KZ, it looks like he has trouble on the back foot and does tend to get his back against the fence for clinch opportunities)
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Oh well, if he's spent a week with Ferguson being told his footwork sucks he's probably a whole new fighter now...

Yeah, I get it, the same thing everyone is saying. Yair can't strike as effectively backing up, Stephens looked okay in a fight he lost against a guy who is also tall and rangey, so.. Stephens wins?

Everyone picking Stephens are just talking about what he can do best case scenario and what Yair will do in worst case, but ignoring all the stuff Stephens does. Haven't seen anyone mention the fact that Stephens telegraphs every punch he throws, or that he also plants his feet to swing, or that he had success in the third with Zabit who is well known for slowing as fights go on but now he's facing someone who has no issues with gassing that we have ever seen...
 
TrueAscension said:
Applesvild is going to jerk off furiously all over this board if Yair wins, I'll tell ya that.
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Oh yes, saving a big load for that one!

I actually don't really care who wins. If the fight plays out how I say, but then last second Stephen's lands a bomb and gets the win, then I'm fine with that. I'd rather have called the style match up correctly then just who wins.
 
ApplesVild said:
Oh yes, saving a big load for that one!

I actually don't really care who wins. If the fight plays out how I say, but then last second Stephen's lands a bomb and gets the win, then I'm fine with that. I'd rather have called the style match up correctly then just who wins.
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Well I think its fair to say you've called the style match up correctly. Yair's going to look to land quick snipes from the outside and counter, hope Stephens gasses with the power that he throws into everything, weathers the storm, and out-points him. No?
 
I think Esparza at +115 is worth a play, I remember Grosso looking like shit in her last fight despite getting the W
 
TrueAscension said:
Well I think its fair to say you've called the style match up correctly. Yair's going to look to land quick snipes from the outside and counter, hope Stephens gasses with the power that he throws into everything, weathers the storm, and out-points him. No?
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In a nutshell yes. If Stephens can't catch Yair and can't trap him I think he will get frustrated and impatient and then the big swings will become even more predictable. I also think attacking the legs and body will play a big part of Yair's game.
 
Invictis said:
I think Esparza at +115 is worth a play, I remember Grosso looking like shit in her last fight despite getting the W
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She looked good last time out, picked KK apart more or less, clear decision.
 
ApplesVild said:
She looked good last time out, picked KK apart more or less, clear decision.
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Definitely thinking of a different WMMA fight then.

Whoops. Will tape it later, that's what I get for trusting my xanax and weed riddled memory.
 
ApplesVild said:
Yair could calf kick the fuck out of him, slow him down even more, take some of his power away, lower the risk of a reactive shot
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Yea Stephens has probably never seen or thrown a leg kick before...... Didn't Zabit try that? Just saying I know who I like if it gets gritty, I got my money on the man who won't give inch or reset his position everytime the fight gets dirty.
 
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