International Vietnam’s arrest of reformist labor official could disturb bid for better trade terms with the US

LeonardoBjj

Professional Wrestler
@Brown
Joined
Jan 17, 2010
Messages
4,957
Reaction score
6,063
BY GRANT PECK
Updated 1:43 PM BRT, May 9, 2024
FfJgKvUUoAEOGDB.jpg:large

BANGKOK (AP) — A senior Vietnamese official with the country’s labor ministry was arrested for “deliberately disclosing state secrets,” police announced on Thursday, a development that analysts say could hurt Vietnam’s efforts to obtain more favorable trade terms for exports to the United States.

There were no further details about lawyer Nguyen Van Binh’s arrest — beyond the announcement on the website of the police in the capital of Hanoi — but rights activists allege he was detained because he supported the idea of independent trade unions, banned under the Communist government.

They also say it’s a sign of continuing repression, which was previously directed mainly toward bloggers, environmentalists and civil society groups.

Binh who headed the Legal Affairs Department at the Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs, could face between two and 15 years in prison for disclosing state secrets under the law in this single-party, authoritarian state.
A brief profile of Binh on a website of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development last year said the 51-year-old lawyer has also worked for the U.N.'s International Labor Organization.

big-hand-ang-golden-bridge.jpg

His arrest was first reported earlier this week by The 88 Project, a small multinational organization that monitors and promotes human rights and civil liberties in Vietnam. It described Binh as a reformer who supported independent trade unions.

“Binh’s arrest comes amid a new wave of repression in Vietnam,” the group said in its report, dated Monday. It said Binh’s arrest was “the first arrest of a government reformer in recent years.”

The 88 Project in February published what it described as a secret 2023 national security directive of Vietnam’s ruling Communist Party ordering a crackdown on labor groups, civil society, and foreign organizations deemed a threat to national security.

Binh had been leading efforts to ratify the U.N. International Labor Organization Convention 87, which, if passed, would guarantee workers the right to form independent trade unions without prior authorization, the group said.

The issue of labor reform is important to Vietnam for economic reasons.

Last September, when President Biden visited Vietnam, Washington and Hanoi elevated their relationship to the highest diplomatic level of “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership.” Analysts said it reflected the U.S. desire to have Vietnam as an ally against rival superpower China.

%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fa37eda0f-5a09-41e5-92b1-d8070ca488a1.jpg

However, Vietnam remains on a list of 12 nations, including China and Russia, classified by the U.S. as non-market economies, substantially directed by the state.

At about the same time as Biden’s visit, Vietnam requested that the U.S. Commerce Department make a determination of whether Vietnam could be officially qualified as a market economy, which potentially could lower tariffs on its exports to the U.S., its biggest market.

The Commerce Department on Wednesday held a public hearing about the upgrade and is expected to complete its review in July. Although its determination is supposed to be made according to strictly economic criteria, an open-ended category allows matters such as labor rights to be taken into consideration, which could weigh against a change to market economy status.

Vietnam claims that its labor laws are in line with international standards, including having wages determined by free bargaining between workers and employers.

vietnam-1-1611926800.profileImage.2x-jpg.webp

The U.S. State Department and rights groups say that is not the case.

“It’s patently false to claim that Vietnamese workers can organize unions or that their wages are the result of free bargaining between labor and management,” John Sifton, Asia advocacy director at Human Rights Watch said Wednesday.

“Not a single independent union exists in Vietnam and no working legal frameworks exist for unions to be created or for workers to enforce labor rights,” he added.

An upgraded trade status is also symbolically important for Vietnam’s government, said Murray Hiebert, a senior associate of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

Vietnam officials see the U.S. continued classification of Vietnam under a “non-market status an insult and bewildering, considering how important Vietnam is to the U.S. as a trading and investment partner,” Hiebert said.

“Hanoi also finds it insulting to be included in a grouping of 12 countries that includes China, Russia and countries formerly associated with the Soviet Union,” Hiebert said in an email to The Associated Press.

The U.S. Embassy in Hanoi did not immediately respond to an AP request for comment.

https://apnews.com/article/vietnam-...s-washington-1aab0e4822f7ec37aeb5a779ae968791
 
Good for Vietnam. Not so good for the US.
Why?

Articles says Vietnam is not happy about being classified as non market economy.

Want to improve status and trade efficiency with largest purchaser, America.

Granted a review by the US which may be harmed by this arrest...



Doesn't sound good for Vietnam to me.
 
Why?

Articles says Vietnam is not happy about being classified as non market economy.

Want to improve status and trade efficiency with largest purchaser, America.

Granted a review by the US which may be harmed by this arrest...



Doesn't sound good for Vietnam to me.
The US having more bargaining power always wins/profits more from those "bilateral" trade agreements with any other counterpart, at the expense of that counterpart. Always.
In some cases countries are better off not trading with the US.
 
Why?

Articles says Vietnam is not happy about being classified as non market economy.

Want to improve status and trade efficiency with largest purchaser, America.

Granted a review by the US which may be harmed by this arrest...



Doesn't sound good for Vietnam to me.

Vietnam’s political turmoil reveals a turn towards China – and away from the West​

Following a power struggle within the Communist Party of Vietnam, it is clearer than ever that its new hard-line leadership has no interest in confrontation with China or being part of an ‘anti-China’ coalition.

Dr Bill Hayton

Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme

In just a few weeks, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) has shredded its reputation for boring political stability. A long-running power struggle, disguised by a wider anti-corruption campaign, has resulted in the sudden sacking of both the country’s president, Vo Van Thuong, and the chair of the National Assembly.

The outcome of this fight should cause those who still hope that Vietnam could join an ‘anti-China’ coalition to think again. Although this power struggle is not about foreign policy, it will result in a turn towards China and away from the West.

The sackings in March and May this year follow the dismissal, early last year, of the then president and deputy prime minister. The communist party’s politburo, its paramount political leadership, has lost four top members in a year and a half. The turmoil is unprecedented.

Although CPV control remains unchallenged, the fissures within it are becoming more obvious. This is not to say that the party will split. The vanquished are being allowed to retire quietly, so long as they cede power to their rivals.

What we are seeing is a takeover. The winners of this power struggle are the hardliners: the police generals and the dogmatic Leninists. Vietnam looks set to follow China in a political inward turn. A recent instruction (Directive 24) instructs officials and party members to limit contacts with foreign organizations. There will be consequences in several areas, not least in slower economic growth.

Vietnam had appeared well-placed to benefit from the diversification of Western investment away from China. It now appears to be a much riskier bet.



The new-look Vietnamese leadership appears more focused on regime survival than further liberalization. All this at a time when Vietnam had appeared well-placed to benefit from the diversification of Western investment away from China. The country now appears to be a much riskier bet. It seems the CPV leadership is willing to sacrifice some economic growth in the interests of tighter political control.

The prospect of losing that control is what frightens CPV leaders the most. For over a decade, the hardliners have been attempting to marginalize and suppress those at the top of the party who would prioritize faster economic growth over rigid political discipline. As in China, this has been done through an anti-corruption campaign. While Vietnam does have a major problem with corruption – as some recent high-profile court cases have demonstrated – it is also true that the so-called ‘blazing furnace’ anti-corruption campaign in Vietnam has become a political weapon.

The victims have been those whom the hardliners regard as insufficiently committed to the primacy of the communist party. They may have been guilty of ‘self-evolution’, the tendency of individuals to place themselves ahead of the party, which the ideologues see as a grave threat to party legitimacy. For them, the party must always come first.

Vietnam now has three potential future leaders: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Minister of Public Security To Lam, and Truong Thi Mai. However, in the chauvinistic space of Vietnamese politics, the two men – Chinh and Lam – are likely to be the frontrunners. Both are also police generals. What these two seek most is political security and both look to China for inspiration.

Whoever wins the race to become the next general secretary of the CPV, the country will have taken a turn towards becoming a literal police state. With the security apparatus in charge of the party (rather than the other way around), the tendency towards repression and ever-greater control will be baked into the system. This will make it harder for democratic countries to work with Vietnam. The CPV leadership will find greater acceptance in Russia and China.

While Vietnam has disagreements with China, most notably over the South China Sea, the two countries’ ruling communist parties have a shared Leninist heritage and political ties that date back a century. This is in stark contrast to popular opinion, which is generally more hostile towards China. However, the CPV and its Chinese counterpart frequently swap ideas on the best ways to manage public opinion.

It is unlikely that any country will wish to downgrade relations with Vietnam because of its hard-line turn. However, they should downgrade their expectations of what they hope to gain from the relationship. It is now clearer than ever that the Vietnamese leadership has no interest in initiating confrontation with China or being part of an ‘anti-China’ coalition.

The CPV has successfully ‘played’ Western expectations on this score for some time. With the new leadership in place, the CPV’s affinity with its Chinese political counterparts will be harder to disguise.

What this will mean for the Vietnamese economy is hard to predict. It is, to a large degree, at the mercy of global developments, including the war in Ukraine and trade disputes between the US and China. However, the domestic policy environment is also an important factor.

Fear of being ensnared in the anti-corruption campaign has caused officials to avoid taking decisions, delaying job-creating investments. An economic slowdown may cause popular discontent and it is not clear how the CPV will manage mass disaffection.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/0...moil-reveals-turn-towards-china-and-away-west
 
The US having more bargaining power always wins/profits more from those "bilateral" trade agreements with any other counterpart, at the expense of that counterpart. Always.
In some cases countries are better off not trading with the US.
- It would be good to Vitnam to be a trading partner to USA. But while USA snobs them, China goes and extend their hand.

Usa can always publish fake-news in his business sites, how China economy is strugling.
 
The US having more bargaining power always wins/profits more from those "bilateral" trade agreements with any other counterpart, at the expense of that counterpart. Always.
In some cases countries are better off not trading with the US.
They're already trading with the US, it's their biggest trading partner.

They already get shat on due to their NME status.

As they should.



Dictatorships don't get the same trade deals as allied democracies with shared ideals.

You want a deal where you get shat on a little less you jump through the hoops.

Or not.
 
- It would be good to Vitnam to be a trading partner to USA. But while USA snobs them, China goes and extend their hand.

Usa can always publish fake-news in his business sites, how China economy is strugling.

Vietnam’s political turmoil reveals a turn towards China – and away from the West​

Following a power struggle within the Communist Party of Vietnam, it is clearer than ever that its new hard-line leadership has no interest in confrontation with China or being part of an ‘anti-China’ coalition.

Dr Bill Hayton

Associate Fellow, Asia-Pacific Programme

In just a few weeks, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) has shredded its reputation for boring political stability. A long-running power struggle, disguised by a wider anti-corruption campaign, has resulted in the sudden sacking of both the country’s president, Vo Van Thuong, and the chair of the National Assembly.

The outcome of this fight should cause those who still hope that Vietnam could join an ‘anti-China’ coalition to think again. Although this power struggle is not about foreign policy, it will result in a turn towards China and away from the West.

The sackings in March and May this year follow the dismissal, early last year, of the then president and deputy prime minister. The communist party’s politburo, its paramount political leadership, has lost four top members in a year and a half. The turmoil is unprecedented.

Although CPV control remains unchallenged, the fissures within it are becoming more obvious. This is not to say that the party will split. The vanquished are being allowed to retire quietly, so long as they cede power to their rivals.

What we are seeing is a takeover. The winners of this power struggle are the hardliners: the police generals and the dogmatic Leninists. Vietnam looks set to follow China in a political inward turn. A recent instruction (Directive 24) instructs officials and party members to limit contacts with foreign organizations. There will be consequences in several areas, not least in slower economic growth.






The new-look Vietnamese leadership appears more focused on regime survival than further liberalization. All this at a time when Vietnam had appeared well-placed to benefit from the diversification of Western investment away from China. The country now appears to be a much riskier bet. It seems the CPV leadership is willing to sacrifice some economic growth in the interests of tighter political control.

The prospect of losing that control is what frightens CPV leaders the most. For over a decade, the hardliners have been attempting to marginalize and suppress those at the top of the party who would prioritize faster economic growth over rigid political discipline. As in China, this has been done through an anti-corruption campaign. While Vietnam does have a major problem with corruption – as some recent high-profile court cases have demonstrated – it is also true that the so-called ‘blazing furnace’ anti-corruption campaign in Vietnam has become a political weapon.

The victims have been those whom the hardliners regard as insufficiently committed to the primacy of the communist party. They may have been guilty of ‘self-evolution’, the tendency of individuals to place themselves ahead of the party, which the ideologues see as a grave threat to party legitimacy. For them, the party must always come first.

Vietnam now has three potential future leaders: Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Minister of Public Security To Lam, and Truong Thi Mai. However, in the chauvinistic space of Vietnamese politics, the two men – Chinh and Lam – are likely to be the frontrunners. Both are also police generals. What these two seek most is political security and both look to China for inspiration.

Whoever wins the race to become the next general secretary of the CPV, the country will have taken a turn towards becoming a literal police state. With the security apparatus in charge of the party (rather than the other way around), the tendency towards repression and ever-greater control will be baked into the system. This will make it harder for democratic countries to work with Vietnam. The CPV leadership will find greater acceptance in Russia and China.

While Vietnam has disagreements with China, most notably over the South China Sea, the two countries’ ruling communist parties have a shared Leninist heritage and political ties that date back a century. This is in stark contrast to popular opinion, which is generally more hostile towards China. However, the CPV and its Chinese counterpart frequently swap ideas on the best ways to manage public opinion.

It is unlikely that any country will wish to downgrade relations with Vietnam because of its hard-line turn. However, they should downgrade their expectations of what they hope to gain from the relationship. It is now clearer than ever that the Vietnamese leadership has no interest in initiating confrontation with China or being part of an ‘anti-China’ coalition.

The CPV has successfully ‘played’ Western expectations on this score for some time. With the new leadership in place, the CPV’s affinity with its Chinese political counterparts will be harder to disguise.

What this will mean for the Vietnamese economy is hard to predict. It is, to a large degree, at the mercy of global developments, including the war in Ukraine and trade disputes between the US and China. However, the domestic policy environment is also an important factor.

Fear of being ensnared in the anti-corruption campaign has caused officials to avoid taking decisions, delaying job-creating investments. An economic slowdown may cause popular discontent and it is not clear how the CPV will manage mass disaffection.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/0...moil-reveals-turn-towards-china-and-away-west
No fat juicy Western teet for Vietnam... shame for their citizens as they were really looking like the prime candidate to reap the benefits from a hopefully continued and increasing Western divestment from China.
 
- It would be good to Vitnam to be a trading partner to USA. But while USA snobs them, China goes and extend their hand.

Usa can always publish fake-news in his business sites, how China economy is strugling.
The only reason the US wants any trade with Vietnam is to diminish China's influence in the region.

And the US has never been a "friend" of Vietnam and never will be. Vietnam would get screwed eventually.
 
They're already trading with the US, it's their biggest trading partner.

They already get shat on due to their NME status.

As they should.



Dictatorships don't get the same trade deals as allied democracies with shared ideals.

You want a deal where you get shat on a little less you jump through the hoops.

Or not.
Democracy is a myth. It don't exist. Allied democracies? LMAO!

Take that fantasy to some fantasy forum, please.
 
Democracy is a myth. It don't exist. Allied democracies? LMAO!

Take that fantasy to some fantasy forum, please.
Oh you're one of those alterna reality types.

Continue with your free thinking whatever the fucks..
 
- It would be good to Vitnam to be a trading partner to USA. But while USA snobs them, China goes and extend their hand.

Usa can always publish fake-news in his business sites, how China economy is strugling.

As long as VN continue to be ruled by the Communist party, there will always be three factions in their government:

1) The aging but powerful hardline dinosaurs who still see Communist China as brothers in ideology and the West as political enemies that threatens their grip of power. In their eyes, their party's total control trumps everything else, including any progress for the country, like the independent workers unions mentioned in this topic.

2) The much younger but weaker progressive faction who wants to get away from China ASAP and be closer to the West by reforming the country's outdated practices previously learned from Moscow and Beijing. They have the passion and the drive, but they don't have the proverbial party tenure to make the changes.

3) The middle-age pragmatic faction who prefer to keep the status quo of fence-sitting to not pissing off the regional bully right next to them. They're open to progress, but at glacial pace as to not rock the boat, sour their faux friendliness with China, and sets off any alarms in the hardliners' camp.

And that is the real reason why every now and then you would see a party official known for being a "reformer" who's making good progress integrating their country to the International community being tossed in jail on some vague charges against "the interests of the State", and his hard work nullified.

Until the hardliners die off and the rest get off their fence, I don't really expect VN to ever be a reliable partner.
 
Last edited:
#3 are the smart ones.
As long as VN continue to be ruled by the Communist party, there will always be three factions in their government:

1) The aging but powerful hardliners who still see Communist China as brothers in ideology and the West as political enemies. In their eyes, their party's total control trumps everything else, including any progress for the country, like independent workers unions.

2) The much younger but weaker progressive faction who wants to get away from China ASAP and be closer to the West by modernizing the country's decades-old practices previously learned from Moscow and Beijing. They have the passion, but they don't have the proverbial party tenure to make the changes.

3) The pragmatic faction who prefer to keep the status quo of fence-sitting to not pissing off the regional bully right next to them. They wants progress, but at glacial pace as to not rock the boat and sets off any alarms in the hardliners' camp.

And that is the real reason why every now and then you would see a party official who's making good progress integrating their country to the International commumity being tossed in jail on some vague charges, and his hard work nullified.
 
#3 are the smart ones.

Unfortunately, the direct result of this self-stagnation to appease the hardliners is that Vietnam intentionally wasting their potentials, and their people will continue looking at Singapore with envy for decades to come.

SEA-GDP-Per-Capita_WEB.jpg


This is not a joke: there was once a time when the hardliners in Hanoi preached that Vietnam will be far richer under communism than the South Korean and Japanese capitalist pigs, but that goal had been shelved indefinitely.
 
Unfortunately, the direct result of this self-stagnation to appease the hardliners is that Vietnam intentionally wasting their potentials, and their people will continue looking at Singapore with envy for decades to come.

SEA-GDP-Per-Capita_WEB.jpg


This is not a joke: there was once a time when the hardliners in Hanoi preached that Vietnam will be far richer under communism than the South Korean and Japanese capitalist pigs, but that goal had been shelved indefinitely.
- It's a amazing looking country.
I bet Hanoi is very rich thought!
 
Unfortunately, the direct result of this self-stagnation to appease the hardliners is that Vietnam intentionally wasting their potentials, and their people will continue looking at Singapore with envy for decades to come.

SEA-GDP-Per-Capita_WEB.jpg


This is not a joke: there was once a time when the hardliners in Hanoi preached that Vietnam will be far richer under communism than the South Korean and Japanese capitalist pigs, but that goal had been shelved indefinitely.
All states go thru cycles. Vietnam's time hasn't come yet. All in all, they are better off improving relationships with China in stead of looking up to the west. Simple fucking geography dictates that.
 
Back
Top