You think the housing market is gonna crash anytime soon?

[daPROFESSOR]

We are 4 million homes short right now. Supply and demand.
And we’ve just printed off more money than ever. Big money supply. Small housing supply.
Poor people are hosed

 

[KeepingItReal]

Buy a home because you want to live in it long-term, don't buy a home with considerations of future resale value. Nobody can predict the future.

 

[GSP_37]

I blame ruthless greedy real estate sales people and their lusts for Mercedes cars.

 

[StoneColdSteveAustin]

2 factors suggesting yes (not a crash but a correction)

If interest rates raise back up, especially if that deters foreign investor and over extended owners who can't afford the refinance rates.

And

If the trend of digital nomads continue pushing people away from major urban centers and commercial office properties have to be converted to residential. (like what happened to dated manufacturing plants into condos and lofts)

Both should increase supply

Refinance costs get wrapped up into the cost of the loan. If you’re lowering your rate you’ll absorb the savings in a short period of time.


Why would an over extended owner refinance to a higher rate to begin with? what you’re saying here doesnt make sense.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

Refinance costs get wrapped up into the cost of the loan. If you’re lowering your rate you’ll absorb the savings in a short period of time.


Why would an over extended owner refinance to a higher rate to begin with? what you’re saying here doesnt make sense.

Because as post pandemic rates rise, how many people who purchased a home in 2019-22 are going to be able to refinance into a lower rate? People will have to pay a higher monthly rate on their loan and if they are currently over extended. That's not even counting people who over extended and opted for a variable rate mortgage to get an even lower pandemic interest rate

Edit. This is going to be more common in Canada which has a higher number of 5 year fixed rate mortgages

 

[Oblivian]

Refinance costs get wrapped up into the cost of the loan. If you’re lowering your rate you’ll absorb the savings in a short period of time.


Why would an over extended owner refinance to a higher rate to begin with? what you’re saying here doesnt make sense.

You are missing a lot of factors. People refinance for multiple reasons. Several refi to try to reduce their monthly payment not only for a lower rate, but for when their principal is lower. The possibility isn't there once rates are higher as their payment won't be lower. Furthermore, people can't pay for multiple things in their life so they hope to pull out equity. The possibility won't be there. Look at how often people refinance and how long people hold their loans. It's going to be a wake up call for many.

 

[JudoThrowFiasco]

You are missing a lot of factors. People refinance for multiple reasons. Several refi to try to reduce their monthly payment not only for a lower rate, but for when their principal is lower. The possibility isn't there once rates are higher as their payment won't be lower. Furthermore, people can't pay for multiple things in their life so they hope to pull out equity. The possibility won't be there. Look at how often people refinance and how long people hold their loans. It's going to be a wake up call for many.

Also panic selling during a correction and not being able to port an existing mortgage over.

 

[StoneColdSteveAustin]

Because as post pandemic rates rise, how many people who purchased a home in 2019-22 are going to be able to refinance into a lower rate? People will have to pay a higher monthly rate on their loan and if they are currently over extended. That's not even counting people who over extended and opted for a variable rate mortgage to get an even lower pandemic interest rate

Edit. This is going to be more common in Canada which has a higher number of 5 year fixed rate mortgages

Most likely people who are over extended don’t qualify for variable interest rates to begin with. But I guess it’s really a case by case basis for individual borrowers.


If you purchased a home in the last few years with either a 30year or 15 year fixed rate you would currently have a historically low interest rate to begin with. You most likely won’t have to refinance to a lower rate.

 

[Only Here for Attachments]

I’m a broker and I don’t see it crashing at all, but cooling off where houses aren’t going for over asking price in like a day.

 

[StoneColdSteveAustin]

You are missing a lot of factors. People refinance for multiple reasons. Several refi to try to reduce their monthly payment not only for a lower rate, but for when their principal is lower. The possibility isn't there once rates are higher as their payment won't be lower. Furthermore, people can't pay for multiple things in their life so they hope to pull out equity. The possibility won't be there. Look at how often people refinance and how long people hold their loans. It's going to be a wake up call for many.

well I own a few properties with my brother that we rent so I have some experience in this field. We want to buy more properties but they’re so expensive right now we don’t think it will be worth it. When prices start leveling out we’re gonna pick up another rental property. We want something down by the beach we can seasonally rent and cover all our costs just from the rental summer months. That leaves us the other 9 months of the year to make some profit off the property until it’s paid for.

I don’t want to get to deeply into it but I have Some experience in this field.

 

[Kefka666]

We're trying to buy or build a vacation log home up on Mt. Charleston, NV and I'm kinda weary that the value will drop in the near future. From what we are looking for, we're in the price range of around 750k. We'd hate it if we buy it and 5 years from now, the value will be at 300k.

But we're also weary of it going up to a point where we won't be able to afford it.

Half of people I know say the housing market is going to crash like in 2008. The other half says it's going to keep going up.

I’m not familiar with the housing prices there - but here in Vancouver BC, definitely not. I put a large majority of my funds into real estate here and have been since I was 18. As long as you aren’t wasting your money in new 1 bedroom condos, you’re going to yield profits no matter what.

 

[CaptHANDSUP]

Prices will go down, but I don't think we'll see a big crash.

People are grossly overestimating how hard it is to buy now. We are literally going to be closing on a guy buying a house for 3 times of what he paid for his current house. He has 4 judgments against him with one pending. So right now, he obviously can't make ends meet on a house at 1/3 of what he's about to spend. Now he's got quite a bit of equity in his current house due to the increase in value. He's going to be paying the judgments and the pending judgment, but please tell me how he is qualified to have a mortgage payment that will be nearly triple when he can't pay his debts on his previous mortgage.

It's a joke. We see people getting mortgages with horrible credit scores and shitty income/debt ratios. The myth of "buying is only for the upper class" really only holds true in places with insanely high home prices as the loan originators just can't get the #s to work. In the bulk of the US, you still have people spending way more than they can afford and they'll never be able to refinance if rates go up and won't be able to sell if values drop. Not good.

this sounds like the same root problems that caused the gfc

 

[shunyata]

It's gonna bust again at some point, whether next 10 years or next 50.

BUT

Even in the 07-09 crisis there were hot housing markets that didn't lose value, they just froze for a year or so then kept growing all over again.

AND

Lumber is super inflated right now if your building. See if it comes down by the summer before you invest in a build.



If there's water and jobs and it's above sea level, land will keep appreciating in value in the long term.


You need the plot to be under water, in a barren drought, or in a jobless wasteland for it to lose value in the long run.

 

[Ezekiel 25:17]

Nope. Not where i live. Foriegners with money coming through in droves over the next few years. Super high demand for housing with low inventory. Rates coming down still wont impact us much.

 

[Phlog]

When buying housing it only matters when you're planning to take the money out of housing with regards to market performance.

If it's a long term investment you're pretty much all good. I'd say if you plan to have the place 20 years you shouldn't bother thinking about the current market.

 

[Soma]

If this is going to be your vacation home and not something you’re planning to sell, then it doesn’t matter what The market is like. It’s always going to go up and always going to go down and then repeat.

If you pay 750k now and it’s worth 300k 5 years from now and you’re not planning to sell then it doesn’t matter that it lost that paper value because you’re not going to sell it - you’re going to keep it for the rest of your lives. And at some point it will go back up again and then maybe it’s worth 1 million. And then another 5 to 10 years maybe goes back down again but again it doesn’t matter because you’re not going to sell it. So stop overthinking and letting your fear get in the way of making a decision.

 

[TXstriker]

 

[Halifax]

We're trying to buy or build a vacation log home up on Mt. Charleston, NV and I'm kinda weary that the value will drop in the near future. From what we are looking for, we're in the price range of around 750k. We'd hate it if we buy it and 5 years from now, the value will be at 300k.

But we're also weary of it going up to a point where we won't be able to afford it.

Half of people I know say the housing market is going to crash like in 2008. The other half says it's going to keep going up.

No. Circumstances are different. Far different than 2008. In my area at least.

House prices have doubled. Literally. In the last 2 years. Supply is not.meeting demand and investors are the buyers now.

If anything this is the beginning of lower middle class descent into poverty and inability to buy.

 

[GSP_37]

I keep seeing these super old wooden pieces of shit selling for close to $1 mil. For that high price, you still need to put in a hella lot more money to tear down and rebuild. This is absolutely criminal for greedy realtors to be pushing these prices.

 

[cincymma79]

Only if boomers that are holding onto their home equity til the very end all sell at the same time

This is genuinely stupid