UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

[ChoKuRei]

What do you guys think about alex reyes going up in weight and possibly outgrappling perry for a dec or sub finish? I honestly cant remember seeing mike perry grapple or defend takedowns...suppose it wont be too hard against an underweight opponent..

 

[MMA Goodfella]

With Sanders and Alves out — my two biggest plays — I made a couple additional wagers.

Usman -600 + Jotko -200 + Perry @ +113 risking 3.00 units to win 3.39 units

Gillespie/Gonzalez O1½ rounds -150 + Burns/Saggo O2½ rounds -230 @ +139 risk 2.00 to win 2.80 units

Also played Perry/Reyes u1.5 @ -155 risking 2.00 units to win 1.30 units

Using $50 unit size

BTW: I will put these in the OBT but wanted to put them ITT as well since I had posted plays earlier ITT that included Alves and Sanders and are now out. Just wanted to clear this up.

Sucks that Alves + Sanders are out. This card is a black hole of barking dogs. At least the dogs that usually jump off the betting lines and bite you.

 

[vkram]

What do you guys think about alex reyes going up in weight and possibly outgrappling perry for a dec or sub finish? I honestly cant remember seeing mike perry grapple or defend takedowns...suppose it wont be too hard against an underweight opponent..

Perry looked pretty smooth on top against HGL and Roberts but both were stunned at that point so not much to take away from there.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

You too man. I have to assume Sander's learned a valuable lesson against Luri and won't make the same mistake again, but I don't think hedging at those odds is a bad idea at all for the only likely way I see Arantes winning.

@Sham5916910

Womp-Womp!!!

 

[EzFlyer]

Usman -3.5 -225

Dude has won every round of every fight on Tuf and post tuf. Including multiple 10-8 rounds etc.

I think he's a nightmare matchup for Moraes.

Playing this straight up.

 

[EzFlyer]

Usman -3.5 -225

Dude has won every round of every fight on Tuf and post tuf. Including multiple 10-8 rounds etc.

I think he's a nightmare matchup for Moraes.

Playing this straight up.

^^ in addition, bought out of my O2.5 action entirely. the U2.5 is getting hit a lot, in fact...dropping fast...

 

[Stunna77]

With Sanders and Alves out — my two biggest plays — I made a couple additional wagers.

Usman -600 + Jotko -200 + Perry @ +113 risking 3.00 units to win 3.39 units

Gillespie/Gonzalez O1½ rounds -150 + Burns/Saggo O2½ rounds -230 @ +139 risk 2.00 to win 2.80 units

Also played Perry/Reyes u1.5 @ -155 risking 2.00 units to win 1.30 units

Using $50 unit size

BTW: I will put these in the OBT but wanted to put them ITT as well since I had posted plays earlier ITT that included Alves and Sanders and are now out. Just wanted to clear this up.

Sucks that Alves + Sanders are out. This card is a black hole of barking dogs. At least the dogs that usually jump off the betting lines and bite you.

Alves and Sanders were by far my biggest action, so now I am left with some juiced single lines and some overs, along with small plays on Smith, Martin and Saggo. Pretty lame card.

 

[Stunna77]

Usman -3.5 -225

Dude has won every round of every fight on Tuf and post tuf. Including multiple 10-8 rounds etc.

I think he's a nightmare matchup for Moraes.

Playing this straight up.

Incredible line, was already -350 by the time I got there, but still played small with an open spot (probably fill with ledet -3.5 once available). They both either get stopped (very unlikely) or win clear dec/finish.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Here are the records of the guys he has boxed:

4-5 UD
3-2-1 UD
0-3 UD
3-14 KO
3-3 TKO

http://boxrec.com/en/boxer/579718

I just see a bunch of scrubs that he struggled to knock out bc noodle arms

You keep referencing Ledets lack of power and "noodle arms" but what you see on paper with all those subs weren't from his wrestling and BJJ prowess. Instead, most (if not all) came from those "noodle arms" dropping his opponent and then sinking in a sub while they were watching stars and canaries circle their woozy heads.

 

[DarkneT]

Usman -3.5 -225

Dude has won every round of every fight on Tuf and post tuf. Including multiple 10-8 rounds etc.

I think he's a nightmare matchup for Moraes.

Playing this straight up.

I'm
On Usman but going to have to do some work and parlays because his price is awful
Usman and Gregor parlay is safe money

 

[Joseph Budden]

I'm
On Usman but going to have to do some work and parlays because his price is awful
Usman and Gregor parlay is safe money

Na Gregor isn't safe money

Made the potentially regrettable move of throwing Gillespie -3.5 -205 into my round robin in hopes he just wrestles the shit out of Gonzalez every step of the way, but Gillespie's stand up does not impress me very much yet. Especially his defense. Very hittable, and Gonzalez has a multitude of offensive weapons on the feet even if his defense is just as shit.

 

[piglord]

hall looked skinnier than usual?

ludacrous size difference between gregor and gonzales. i can't fathom how gonzales makes 155.

same with lombard and smith. lombard's gigantic head will be an easy target.

rockhold looked drained in the face? i know he's a big mw and i doubt the weight cut is getting easier with age.

 

[onC]

I'm
On Usman but going to have to do some work and parlays because his price is awful
Usman and Gregor parlay is safe money

Why on earth would you put GG in a parlay if his "price is terrible"...?

 

[Joseph Budden]

Rockhold looked skinny as fuck

 

[vkram]

hall looked skinnier than usual?

ludacrous size difference between gregor and gonzales. i can't fathom how gonzales makes 155.

same with lombard and smith. lombard's gigantic head will be an easy target.

rockhold looked drained in the face? i know he's a big mw and i doubt the weight cut is getting easier with age.

Hall weighed in wearing clothes so might be a bit lighter than usual.

Rockhold did look drained, he was the last one to weigh in.

 

[EzFlyer]

burns SUB just bumped back up to +425.. taking a little. (still have a bunch on burns ML and O2.5, but i like the +425)

also finally pulling the trigger on branch besides the spread. ML +450 and NSC +529.

wishing i just did gonzalez NSC instead of gonzalez ML, too.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

David Branch not here to play games, told Rockhold in the staredown "I'm gonna break you up son"

By looking at the line you'd think Branch is some jobber and not a former 2 division world champ that hasn't lost in 5 years.

 

[mmaHobbyist]

Wow, poor Rockhold. The weigh-in is like Bellator, didn't even need a stage, just a general Hotel Hall. We didn't even get those mini episode leading to the fight, no promotion what's so ever. This cost saving will bite the new investors ass.

 

[DarkneT]

Why on earth would you put GG in a parlay if his "price is terrible"...?

Free money is free money and I don't like all the coin flip fights on this card

 

[EzFlyer]

Free money is free money and I don't like all the coin flip fights on this card

...dude...

parlays are not magical, they don't alter the price...