UFN 116 - Rockhold vs Branch - Pittsburgh

[lifeisgood12345]

Branch is so criminally underrated by the markets, but I am worried he's not the guy to take down Rockhold.

Rockhold has never lost a fight that went to round 2. That says a lot about his offensive skill and smarts. He figures out his opponents pretty well after round 1, and brings destruction when the fight hits the floor.

His chin is soft soft soft, but his r1 KO's all are against heavy hitters. Bisping 16 KOs in 37 fights, Belfort 18 in 39, Rubalcava 3 in 4 (even if he's nobody he hits hard).

Branch has 5 in 24, with most of his fights coming outside of UFC against weaker competition. 4 of his KO's are against dudes without wiki pages from 6+ years ago. His good KO was against Yushin Okami who has a baby soft chin and still wasn't until r4.

Rockhold has been KO'd 3 times in 18 fights, and Branch has about half the KO rate as the dudes who victimized Luke. So give him a 1/12 shot of KO and throw in tiny sub odds and he has about 10% chance of winning ITD.

Then the ~33% of the time it's going to decision Luke is prob going to win ~2/3 times. So 11% decision + 10% ITD = 21% overall. Which is slightly +EV at +425, but this just feels like the wrong matchup at the wrong time for Branch.

Guess I'm just going to root for Luke to get a quick submission and then Branch will be even more underrated next time he fights.

 

[EzFlyer]

His chin is soft soft soft, but his r1 KO's all are against heavy hitters. Bisping 16 KOs in 37 fights, Belfort 18 in 39, Rubalcava 3 in 4 (even if he's nobody he hits hard).

calling bisping a "heavy hitter" compared to branch is kinda nonsense.. and no one honestly has a clue if the first dude who ko'd rockhold is a heavy hitter.

 

[Sham5916910]

Na Gregor isn't safe money

Made the potentially regrettable move of throwing Gillespie -3.5 -205 into my round robin in hopes he just wrestles the shit out of Gonzalez every step of the way, but Gillespie's stand up does not impress me very much yet. Especially his defense. Very hittable, and Gonzalez has a multitude of offensive weapons on the feet even if his defense is just as shit.

Dont sweat it jb. Gonz is weak as piss and awful off his back. Also has paper mache chin

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Bisping has KO's in 43% of his fights, Branch in 21% w/ Bisping fighting a higher level of competition. How is Bisping not a much heavier hitter than Branch?

And Rubalcava has almost as many career KO's as Branch in 4 total fights, all in r1 or early r2. Think that qualifies as a clue that he hits hard.

 

[Sham5916910]

Bisping is an accumulative puncher. Its his pace and pressure that breaks people

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Branch is also an accumulative puncher and nothing about him breaks people.

Edit-- although I see what you mean that his volume is much lower than Bisping on average. Still Branch KO feels not super likely unless Bisping's KO completely washed Luke's chin.

 

[Sham5916910]

Cos branch doesnt have high volume or push the pace

 

[EzFlyer]

i have no words.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Punching power isn't determined by the size of ones arms lol, what a ridiculous notion. Plenty of noodle armed men have been regarded as heavy punchers.

For instance...

Anderson Silva
Carlos Condit (let's ask poor Dan Hardy about this one)
Alexander Volkov (19 of 29 wins via KO/TKO)

Then you have spindly KO specialists like Thiago Santos + The "Noodle-Limbed Cowboy" Alex Oliveira + Max Holloway + Tony Ferguson + Santiago Ponzinibio + Joe Duffy and Marc Diakiese among others.

Hell, even that noodly armed son of a bitch Kajun Johnson had to get in on the act and stieal my money in the process.

In kickboxing you have that gangly weakling Badr Hari

I'm sure there are many more but these are just off the top of my head.

Oh....How about maybe the hardest hitters in boxing history. Lotsa wiry framed killers with fucking dynamite in their hands. i.e.

Tommy " Spaghetti-Armed Hitman" Hearns and Diego Corrales bust the myth.

Or of the hardest pound for pound hitter I've ever seen and boxing. Julian "The Hawk" Jackson. For those who don't know about Mr. Jackson — and his long noodle arms — I found a video that provides a quick introduction while potentially putting an immediate stop this discussion. ...(Start video at 0:47)

Spoiler

 

[TheNinja]

I'm going to keep betting on Usman by decision. Has worked out well for me thus far.

Usman by decision is -174

 

[TheNinja]

Are you shitting me w that Usman line?

Take the Usman by UD for -174

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Cos branch doesnt have high volume or push the pace

Nevertheless the fact that Bisping throws more punches makes him more likely to get a lucky big shot.

Rockhold has been KO'd in 3/18 fights and Branch is decidedly less likely than any one of his random opponents.

Even if you break it down to his last 11 fights, he has been KO'd twice and 10 of those opponents have a higher KO rate than Branch. The only guy who was a non-threat is Jacare (3 in 29) who shares a KO in common with Branch's only legit KO in Okami.

The fact of the matter is that Branch's KO prowess is every bit as embarrassing as Luke's chin. I think everybody who is banking on a Branch KO is guilty of recency bias + wishful thinking. It's more likely that he grinds an ugly decision win.

 

[vkram]

Alex Reyes has a few fights on Fight Pass btw, if anyone wants to watch some tape.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Wow, poor Rockhold. The weigh-in is like Bellator, didn't even need a stage, just a general Hotel Hall. We didn't even get those mini episode leading to the fight, no promotion what's so ever. This cost saving will bite the new investors ass.

I agree that long-term it will hurt them, and they seem to be lost at sea in terms of marketing. This is strange since they are literally a marketing firm and agency for A-list Hollywood celebrities. That said, I believe the reason they didn't go spending a lot of money for this particular card is twofold. The first being that GGG and Canelo are fighting the same night and the second because I'd venture to say that the last PPV — with the loss of Demetrious and Borg – probably didn't break 125,000 buys if that. Additionally, tjust paid $4.3 billion for what is looking like the combat version of Myspace. Guaranteed there are panicked investors and thus necessary cost cutting measures are underway.

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

Nevertheless the fact that Bisping throws more punches makes him more likely to get a lucky big shot.

Rockhold has been KO'd in 3/18 fights and Branch is decidedly less likely than any one of his random opponents.

Even if you break it down to his last 11 fights, he has been KO'd twice and 10 of those opponents have a higher KO rate than Branch. The only guy who was a non-threat is Jacare (3 in 29) who shares a KO in common with Branch's only legit KO in Okami.

The fact of the matter is that Branch's KO prowess is every bit as embarrassing as Luke's chin. I think everybody who is banking on a Branch KO is guilty of recency bias + wishful thinking. It's more likely that he grinds an ugly decision win.

Branch is a grappler first, his striking is something that has developed later in his career, he doesn't have a lot of KO's but thats because he's usually looking to grapple opponents. Branch's boxing is solid and so is his power, showed that in the Okami fight. Also look at the Magalhaes fight, Branch put hands on him, hurt him, dropped him, messed his face up bad. I wouldn't be so dismissive of a KO by Branch and I wouldn't have so much faith in your stats, maybe you are overrating their relevance.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

Branch is a grappler first, his striking is something that has developed later in his career, he doesn't have a lot of KO's but thats because he's usually looking to grapple opponents. Branch's boxing is solid and so is his power, showed that in the Okami fight. Also look at the Magalhaes fight, Branch put hands on him, hurt him, dropped him, messed his face up bad. I wouldn't be so dismissive of a KO by Branch and I wouldn't have so much faith in your stats, maybe you are overrating their relevance.

MY stats say Branch +172 is EV of this bet. If I had blind faith in them I would have already shoved an assload of money on him.

I am trying to subjectively assess the matchup to decide whether it is a still good opportunity or not in spite of Branch pillow fists. Of course he has SOME chance of KO, just have a hard time seeing it as > 10%. He hit Magalhaes in the face lots but still didn't KO him, and Magalhaes chin is probably just as bad as Rockhold or worse.

 

[mmaHobbyist]

Alex Reyes has a few fights on Fight Pass btw, if anyone wants to watch some tape.

I give up looking, fights never line up to Sherdog listing. And why can ufc update the video of small promotion?

 

[vkram]

I give up looking, fights never line up to Sherdog listing. And why can ufc update the video of small promotion?

They probably have an agreement with them. It benefits both parties, UFC has a bigger fight library and smaller promotions get a platform on which they can show their fights (and probably some money).

 

[Zee's MMA Subscriber]

MY stats say Branch +172 is EV of this bet. If I had blind faith in them I would have already shoved an assload of money on him.

I am trying to subjectively assess the matchup to decide whether it is a still good opportunity or not in spite of Branch pillow fists. Of course he has SOME chance of KO, just have a hard time seeing it as > 10%. He hit Magalhaes in the face lots but still didn't KO him, and Magalhaes chin is probably just as bad as Rockhold or worse.

So you are using some sort of algorithm for capping MMA? IDK bout all that, this ain't baseball.

You are right Magalhaes doesn't have much of a chin but he's a solid 205er. Branch could have finished him if he really wanted to but Branch is a smart fighter and typically takes the path of least resistance and doesn't take a lot of risks. Branch isn't some big puncher but he's got respectable power, better than the lack of KO's on his record suggest.

 

[barrygood1]

Hey guys, just want to say that my depression is getting the best of me so I'm most likely gonna be MIA depending upon how my therapy sessions go.
My subscribers have received their picks for rockhold vs branch
I'm making a killing right now handicapping, but what's there to life when you're alone and sad. I try to go out and do things other than handicapping in the lab, but its the only thing I'm good at.
Can't find a date on e-harmony and I don't have many friends in real life. I drink, smoke, play poker and handicap. Doesn't help that there are stalkers trying to ruin my life out of spite and jealousy.
#ineedavacation

Barry out