- Joined
- Aug 31, 2017
- Messages
- 1,725
- Reaction score
- 28
Branch is so criminally underrated by the markets, but I am worried he's not the guy to take down Rockhold.
Rockhold has never lost a fight that went to round 2. That says a lot about his offensive skill and smarts. He figures out his opponents pretty well after round 1, and brings destruction when the fight hits the floor.
His chin is soft soft soft, but his r1 KO's all are against heavy hitters. Bisping 16 KOs in 37 fights, Belfort 18 in 39, Rubalcava 3 in 4 (even if he's nobody he hits hard).
Branch has 5 in 24, with most of his fights coming outside of UFC against weaker competition. 4 of his KO's are against dudes without wiki pages from 6+ years ago. His good KO was against Yushin Okami who has a baby soft chin and still wasn't until r4.
Rockhold has been KO'd 3 times in 18 fights, and Branch has about half the KO rate as the dudes who victimized Luke. So give him a 1/12 shot of KO and throw in tiny sub odds and he has about 10% chance of winning ITD.
Then the ~33% of the time it's going to decision Luke is prob going to win ~2/3 times. So 11% decision + 10% ITD = 21% overall. Which is slightly +EV at +425, but this just feels like the wrong matchup at the wrong time for Branch.
Guess I'm just going to root for Luke to get a quick submission and then Branch will be even more underrated next time he fights.
Rockhold has never lost a fight that went to round 2. That says a lot about his offensive skill and smarts. He figures out his opponents pretty well after round 1, and brings destruction when the fight hits the floor.
His chin is soft soft soft, but his r1 KO's all are against heavy hitters. Bisping 16 KOs in 37 fights, Belfort 18 in 39, Rubalcava 3 in 4 (even if he's nobody he hits hard).
Branch has 5 in 24, with most of his fights coming outside of UFC against weaker competition. 4 of his KO's are against dudes without wiki pages from 6+ years ago. His good KO was against Yushin Okami who has a baby soft chin and still wasn't until r4.
Rockhold has been KO'd 3 times in 18 fights, and Branch has about half the KO rate as the dudes who victimized Luke. So give him a 1/12 shot of KO and throw in tiny sub odds and he has about 10% chance of winning ITD.
Then the ~33% of the time it's going to decision Luke is prob going to win ~2/3 times. So 11% decision + 10% ITD = 21% overall. Which is slightly +EV at +425, but this just feels like the wrong matchup at the wrong time for Branch.
Guess I'm just going to root for Luke to get a quick submission and then Branch will be even more underrated next time he fights.