After rewatching last few from each I have the same feelings as ill800. Bet Cub hard at -125 before rewatching tape as I thought lines would move the other way. After digging deeper I don't like a huge bet on Cub, will probably arb down lbing assuming better odds. Cub's speed and variety standing should give Ortega issues and if Cub comes in with a JW gameplan, he should take it. That said, Ortega did a much better job pressuring Mociano and Cub found himself in some dicey situations agasint Choi that would get him in trouble against Ortega. If Ortega can keep that pressure against a more powerful puncher and Cub is content to clinch and grapple like he did vs Choi, I could see him getting caught. Favor cub for sure, but my current 4.2u on him was overbet. Hedged a bit with Ortega rd 5 and beleive Cub wins early rounds to allow me to lessen my exposure at better odds.
Before watching tape and when the fight was first announced, I was pretty confident that it was going to be an easy win for Cub Swanson and I was really surprised it was essentially a pickem line.
After watching tape, for those that think it's going to be an easy win for Cub Swanson, you might surprised. I think this fight is going to be a dogfight and the line is set just about right.
Watching tape on Brian Ortega and even though he is a BJJ guy, his striking is improving and not bad, not exactly fluid but it works for him and his strategy to walk guys down and break them down with strikes over a fight while waiting for his opponent to make a mistake. The kid is tough as nails, great forward pressure, good cardio and a really good chin.
Cub Swanson definitely has the striking and speed advantage but he is pretty chaotic and gets himself in bad situations like other posters have mentioned and that's a bad strategy against Brian Ortega over 5 rounds. With Ortega and his forward pressure, Swanson is going to have to fight off his backfoot which he isn't as effective too.
Some concerns I have is Lobov was landing on Swanson even though he won handily imo but Lobov only has a 65' reach but Ortega has a 69' inch reach and better forward pressure, Swanson is 70' reach which is almost identical. So if Lobov was landing, Ortega will land. The Moicano fight, Ortega was getting outstruck because he was trading shot for shot with Moicano who had a 3' reach advantage and cleaner technique (straighter punches), Swanson isn't really going to have that reach advantage.
I would feel more confident betting Swanson in a 3 round fight and if he was just a stick and move striker but he isn't, he likes getting in chaotic striking situations because that's his style but that's beneficial for Ortega who is looking for small openings. This is going to be a really close dogfight imo.
