Firstly because it would be stupid to go all-out on impeachment without letting more information come.
You're assuming that politics is a game of appealing to people's reasonable side, but it rarely is. At this moment, the dominant strategy for the Democrat leadership is to rattle sabers without stepping over the line. You have Pelosi making various inflammatory statements about Trump that stop just shy of calling for impeachment. Adam Schiff is another example.
Not yet. But I'd consider it later. I'd like to get at least another month's worth of polling data. I just don't think it's as unlikely as some think.
Let me know when you're ready. We can go AV or name bet.
He's not polling at an all time high, he's just doing better than he has at some points recently.
I wrote that he is close to his all-time high. I was correct:
Trump's current RCP average job approval is 43.6%.
His highest ever was right after inauguration (Jan 2017): 45.9%.
His lowest ever (Dec 2017) was 37.1%
I'd predict someone with potential populist appeal, like Harris or Booker (though I have issues with both) will likely win with a >5% popular spread. I'd still bet on someone like Gillibrand, just less so. I can't imagine any decent candidate not crushing the campaign.
Given that you and I see the race very differently, I look forward to betting with you in the run-up to the 2020 election.
I have Trump as a dominant favorite over all of the candidates you mentioned. In my estimation, the toughest matchups for Trump are Warren, Sanders, and Biden.
Also, a serious legal accusation, even if it doesn't lead to a removal from office, will be a major political hit for him ESPECIALLY if he's still facing those issues leading up to the next race.
There are no serious legal accusations against Trump at this point. The Mueller probe is likely to end up emboldening Trump's base and a significant portion of independents, similar to the Starr investigation and President Clinton's poll numbers circa 1999. Siccing Weissman on any president and failing to find significant dirt is a great way to boost that president's support.
I don't believe leadership in either party expects him to win in 2020 at this time. I only believe GOP leadership supports him right now because of how he can help their midterm races.
Why didn't they turn against him after his election? Why didn't they turn against him when he was least popular?
Trump is the head of the Republican Party now. Only a few vulnerable Republicans in swing districts (e.g., Will Hurd) can get away with criticizing him. Look what happened to Paul Ryan.