UFC 226

Cormier by dec
Holloway by dec
Ngannou by KO
Chiesa by dec
Saki by KO
Costa by KO
Felder by dec
Assuncao by dec
Millender by dec
Burns by dec
Moyle by dec (I guess, who cares)
Vannata by dec

You're welcome

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Did you guys forget that Struve only won that fight because he abused the eye-poke jutsus? Barely a mark against Stipe at all imo.
 
Is it me or does Ngannou look significantly slimmer on embedded? Looks like he lowered the dose and dropped some muscle mass
 
Alright, I missed most of this thread, but I'm curious on the bettor's opinions on Uriah Hall and Derrick Lewis. Since they're the two biggest underdogs on this card...how do you see these ones going?

I've spent too much time in "the heavies" lately where everyone's predictions seem more based on emotion than smart betting, so I'm thinking over/under on these are probably the best bet.
 
TITS said:
Alright, I missed most of this thread, but I'm curious on the bettor's opinions on Uriah Hall and Derrick Lewis. Since they're the two biggest underdogs on this card...how do you see these ones going?

I've spent too much time in "the heavies" lately where everyone's predictions seem more based on emotion than smart betting, so I'm thinking over/under on these are probably the best bet.
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Both pretty coin-flippy. Hall and Lewis should both be a lot closer to +175 or so, IMO.
 
TITS said:
Alright, I missed most of this thread, but I'm curious on the bettor's opinions on Uriah Hall and Derrick Lewis. Since they're the two biggest underdogs on this card...how do you see these ones going?

I've spent too much time in "the heavies" lately where everyone's predictions seem more based on emotion than smart betting, so I'm thinking over/under on these are probably the best bet.
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Hall and Lewis Got a strikers chance. Its dog or pass. Uriah Got the power and skills to finish any MW fighter. Lewis has good power at hw so he got a chance too. I woudlnt bet at this odds Costa and Francis because there is to much risk they lose the fight.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Uriah Got the power and skills to finish any MW fighter.
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that's true but he also has the mental lapses to lose to any MW fighter.

that being said, this is exactly the type of spot where you throw half a unit on a guy like hall.
 
thesharktank said:
Any training videos of Lewis from this camp? I think his best path to victory against Ngannou is to take away round 1 with wrestling, but I do not trust that his back is healthy enough to employ this strategy. I can't get a read of this guy at all through interviews. He was threatening retirement for it just last year.
Lewis is fighting for cash. His back is fucked whAtever he says. His early fights he said he was only fighting to pay off his house. The plan was to stop then. But he got stuck on a win streak and a better contract. He will be questioning if he wants it numerous times a camp
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Larthus said:
+10u on Cormier because someone referenced stefan struve in this thread and referred to the period where he beat pat barry and two other cucks as his 'prime'

my blood is on your hands now
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But it's not that outlandish, a fighter doesn't have to be great to have a prime and it's right in that period where he had the most consistency and success of his career.
 
Orion said:
Is it me or does Ngannou look significantly slimmer on embedded? Looks like he lowered the dose and dropped some muscle mass
Click to expand...

yes, ngannou looks shredded and lean. even miocic referenced it in an interview. I would get your ngannou bets in now, because come weigh ins or even the open workouts today, his line may move. esp when they do a square off.

i capped the fight ngannou -400 to -450 so theres still a little value. i see lewis as having a punchers chance, esp if ngannou has leaned out
 
When do you guys think props are gonna be released?

In europe
 
piglord said:
that's true but he also has the mental lapses to lose to any MW fighter.

that being said, this is exactly the type of spot where you throw half a unit on a guy like hall.
Click to expand...

So much this. Most likely Costa blasts him early. But I think the read on Hall now is: Fade him HARD if he's ever the favorite, and play him small anytime he's a big underdog. The opponent almost becomes irrelevant.

Also, if he survives rd 1 but loses it badly and his live odds are huge, it makes sense to throw a little change on him. I don't know what his odds were in the first fight with Mousasi after rd 1, but they had to be HUGE.

The only way to describe Hall is that he's a dangerous flake LOL.
 
mkess101 said:
So much this. Most likely Costa blasts him early. But I think the read on Hall now is: Fade him HARD if he's ever the favorite, and play him small anytime he's a big underdog. The opponent almost becomes irrelevant.

Also, if he survives rd 1 but loses it badly and his live odds are huge, it makes sense to throw a little change on him. I don't know what his odds were in the first fight with Mousasi after rd 1, but they had to be HUGE.

The only way to describe Hall is that he's a dangerous flake LOL.
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Same as Brunson, in my book. Won't take him as a favorite, but I'll happily play his KO1 line at better than +500 against just about anybody.
 
3u on Holloway -5.5 @ +145 with a biased hedge of ~1.3u on Ortega ITD @ +230. If Max wins by wide decision or finish, I profit ~3u. If Ortega finishes Max, the hedge covers my losses.
 
ClipYourDirtyWings said:
3u on Holloway -5.5 @ +145 with a biased hedge of ~1.3u on Ortega ITD @ +230. If Max wins by wide decision or finish, I profit ~3u. If Ortega finishes Max, the hedge covers my losses.
Click to expand...

Does anyone think that Ortega can win by decision? If you do can you tell me how you think the fight can play out that way?

BTW what is -5.5?
 
Also thinking about putting 1U on Perry, would put more if he had a slightly higher fight IQ than a bag of leaves. I cant understand how the bigger fighter is the dog against a smaller fighter coming in as a late replacement. And Felder is not the stick and run kind or guy, nor does he employ a jab much. He is tough, but how can it be anything other than a pick'em at absolute best?

They both love to throw down, so it plays into Perry's style.
 
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