UFC 227 Dillashaw vs Garbrandt II

[JkMMA]

I didnt recognized Mr Bone at first.

Ok parlay done
Marlon Vera
Ricardo Ramos
Renato Moicano
Montel Jackson

100 to win 350

Ricardo Ramos barely won michinori Tanaka. Kang is strong, long and probably better then Tanaka on the ground, and Tanaka handled Ramos on the ground.

 

[mkess101]

Not betting this card, but I'm surprised how many people are so confident in DJ here. I'm a firm disbeliever in invincibility. Cejudo has looked miles ahead of both his opponents and his previous self recently. Particularly in his striking, which was *okay* before and looks phenomenal now. It's like something clicked in him after the first fight to push him to legit champion-level material.

Don't forget Cejudo managed to take DJ down in their first fight too. And he was finished with body shots. We don't have any reason to think he's chinny (yet, at least). I've never even thought about betting against DJ before but I don't agree with the confident ITD picks and such here.

I will say this:

THIS version of Cejudo to me looks at the very least like the best guy DJ will have faced in a really, really long time. I'm not saying I'm gonna make any real plays on Henry here, and DJ definitely should be a heavy favorite (he's obviously earned it), but I also can't see paying the current juice on DJ here either.

Also, let's not forget that there have been SOME moments where DJ has looked human. Elliot controlled him on the mat for a long stretch early in that fight, but completely ran out of energy and DJ took over sometime in rd 2. I gotta believe Cejudo's camp is gonna watch a lot of that tape and possibly try to emulate that gameplan, but believe that Henry will have the gas tank to keep it up much longer than Elliot did.

The psychological hurdle is there for Cejudo. DJ's overall dominance combined with the fact he smoked Henry not that long ago could be inside Cejudo's head. You'd like to think at this level it wouldn't, but...?

 

[chemmy]

Agree. The way I look at it is it's unlikely to be a significant advantage for TJ but there's like a 2% chance his wrestling and top game makes a difference in this fight. As somebody who wants to bet TJ anyway, it's nice to have it on his side.

TJ hitting a few takedowns probably won't make a huge difference in terms of scoring, but if he does manage to get Cody down early that threat could help to open some things up on the feet for him as the fight progresses.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Wow over/under props are released on a Wednesday.

A sign of good things to come?

——

I get good odds on parlay combos. Here’s an example if anyone wants prop action I’ll help y’all via Zelle or Venmo:

Aldrich +185 with o2.5 (-180) for +325
5dimes offering +275 for Aldrich by dec

 

[Roads55]

Jackson now only a tiny underdog...but for how long...how long

 

[zeckdo]

I had this question last week but never got it answered, I enjoy betting -3.5, I understand -3.5. What I do not get is +3.5. I don't understand how you win +3.5.

Hypothetically, if I bet Ross Pearson +3.5, and Makdessi won 29-28 x3, the bet cashes because the spread is less than 3.5, right? What happens if Pearson wins 30-27 x3?

@NewcastleTom tried helping me figure it out but I still didn't grasp it. The line that made no sense was Makdessi -3.5 +160, Pearson +3.5 -205

So Makdessi was 53% likely to win a decision, 21% likely to finish, but only 38% likely of winning ITD or by 4 points?

Pearson was 24% likely to win decision, 13% likely to finish but somehow 67% likely to either finish, win a decision, or lose by only 3 points?

This probably belongs in the general discussion, but I'm anxiously waiting on the props for 227 to release so I can catch some of these ridiculous point spreads dimes keeps releasing.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Ricardo Ramos barely won michinori Tanaka. Kang is strong, long and probably better then Tanaka on the ground, and Tanaka handled Ramos on the ground.

But he is improving from fight to fight, remember he is a Young prospect. He kod in last fight undefeated brother of Firas Zahabi and Kang nearly lost to this bum. Good morning everyone btw going now to my morning run, ABS doesnt appear by himself hehe

 

[null]

I had this question last week but never got it answered, I enjoy betting -3.5, I understand -3.5. What I do not get is +3.5. I don't understand how you win +3.5.

Hypothetically, if I bet Ross Pearson +3.5, and Makdessi won 29-28 x3, the bet cashes because the spread is less than 3.5, right? What happens if Pearson wins 30-27 x3?

@NewcastleTom tried helping me figure it out but I still didn't grasp it. The line that made no sense was Makdessi -3.5 +160, Pearson +3.5 -205

So Makdessi was 53% likely to win a decision, 21% likely to finish, but only 38% likely of winning ITD or by 4 points?

Pearson was 24% likely to win decision, 13% likely to finish but somehow 67% likely to either finish, win a decision, or lose by only 3 points?

This probably belongs in the general discussion, but I'm anxiously waiting on the props for 227 to release so I can catch some of these ridiculous point spreads dimes keeps releasing.

The + points is just the opposite of the - points. If you had Pearson +3½ points and Pearson wins outright, of course he wins, no matter the scores. If Person lost a split decision 28-29, 28-29 and 29-28 for Makdessi then he lost by 1 point on the official cards +3½ points from your prop so your fighter loses the fight but your bet wins anyway.

That explanation in the image you posted is totally wrong by the way about the adding and subtracting from both fighters' scorecards. That's not how it works. Ignore it.

 

[JkMMA]

But he is improving from fight to fight, remember he is a Young prospect. He kod in last fight undefeated brother of Firas Zahabi and Kang nearly lost to this bum. Good morning everyone btw going now to my morning run, ABS doesnt appear by himself hehe

Stills risky fight to parlay regardless. Since the fight is in the states, Ramos will get the decision anyways if it’s a close fight.

 

[null]

For those that like Gamblou & Gabriel Morency: Lou likes Cody at evens despite thinking TJ is the more versatile martial artist with Cody being a good boxer, six years younger and taking this fight more in stride without getting emotional. He also thinks Cejudo has a chance based on Olympic caliber wrestling, but no bet. Lou thinks the Cub vs Moicano bout is mis-priced and may put half a unit on Cub for value. He's also watching the line on underdog Brett Johns vs the short-armed Pedro Muhoz, especially if Johns can get it down to the floor. Lou likes bigger grown man Kang as an underdog over Ramos. He's not sure about Holland and if he has any chance to take striker Santos out of his game. In future fight news, Lou & Gabe think Conor looks healthy and can potentially hurt Khabib if that bout comes together and he'll be watching the Conor + money line.

http://fantasysportsnetwork.com/radioshows/8/

 

[Danis_champ]

"if Johns can get this to the ground"

Really? Munhoz is an animal on the ground I doubt Johns wants to go there.

 

[conmemay]

Stills risky fight to parlay regardless. Since the fight is in the states, Ramos will get the decision anyways if it’s a close fight.

why would Ramos get a decision if it's a close fight? They're fighting in LA and Ramos is a Brazilian. Regardless, i think odds on this fight is off. Ramos is faster in general but striking/grappling are pretty close. Kang is pretty tough, got decent striking and a solid ground game. I think Ramos will do well in the first round but if he doesnt finish Kang in the 1st, Kang will put up a better pace in the last 2 rounds and win this fight.

 

[null]

"if Johns can get this to the ground"

Really? Munhoz is an animal on the ground I doubt Johns wants to go there.

I'm paraphrasing, but as I recall Lou thinks Johns longer arms could serve him well on the feet. I seem to remember a lot of Munhoz's subs come from stunning his opponents and grabbing their neck on the feet or in a scramble, not subs off his back in guard. Johns might be able to work if he's on top and not hurt.

 

[Gugabe]

For those that like Gamblou & Gabriel Morency: Lou likes Cody at evens despite thinking TJ is the more versatile martial artist with Cody being a good boxer, six years younger and taking this fight more in stride without getting emotional. He also thinks Cejudo has a chance based on Olympic caliber wrestling, but no bet. Lou thinks the Cub vs Moicano bout is mis-priced and may put half a unit on Cub for value. He's also watching the line on underdog Brett Johns vs the short-armed Pedro Muhoz, especially if Johns can get it down to the floor. Lou likes bigger grown man Kang as an underdog over Ramos. He's not sure about Holland and if he has any chance to take striker Santos out of his game. In future fight news, Lou & Gabe think Conor looks healthy and can potentially hurt Khabib if that bout comes together and he'll be watching the Conor + money line.

http://fantasysportsnetwork.com/radioshows/8/

Conor'll close as a fav once the serious casual money starts coming onto him, regardless. They managed to get him to -350 against Mayweather, they can get him to -150 against Khabib.

Taken a big Johns position on an Aus book at +262 since they're slow, but just gonna arb that for a u or so. I do think Johns' main path to victory'll be a cardio-boxing session, especially since Munhoz seems to gas a bit towards the end of fights. Losing a round to Stasiak and all. I cashed on Munhoz over Font, but Munhoz was definitely getting outstruck there.

 

[Orion]

Elliot controlled him on the mat for a long stretch early in that fight

Slight adjustment there and DJ would've been choked out by that darce. He was in deep shit there.

 

[MacPherson911]

might not be a bad idea to parlay any pick on this card with the Kovalev ML at like -450 the same night in Atlantic City.

 

[And]

Ramos vs. Kang has been moved up to the televised FX prelims so we'll get live betting on that fight.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Stills risky fight to parlay regardless. Since the fight is in the states, Ramos will get the decision anyways if it’s a close fight.

And Ramos got a ground game himself so Im not really worried about Kang

 

[JkMMA]

why would Ramos get a decision if it's a close fight? They're fighting in LA and Ramos is a Brazilian. Regardless, i think odds on this fight is off. Ramos is faster in general but striking/grappling are pretty close. Kang is pretty tough, got decent striking and a solid ground game. I think Ramos will do well in the first round but if he doesnt finish Kang in the 1st, Kang will put up a better pace in the last 2 rounds and win this fight.

Because Asians don’t rly get the decision win if it’s a close fight.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Odds on Holand are way off, I might bet him because Thiago is chinny, fight should be in stand up because Santos doesnt wrestle at all so Holand got a chance to crack his chin.