Deiveson can pressure pretty well. If Moraga's winning with volume striking, Deiveson will probably try a couple bombs and transition to takedowns if he's not connecting. I can't see Moraga getting a W unless he catches something like the Bibulatov fight.
UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE
- Thread starter Naught2Sixty
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Deiveson can pressure pretty well. If Moraga's winning with volume striking, Deiveson will probably try a couple bombs and transition to takedowns if he's not connecting. I can't see Moraga getting a W unless he catches something like the Bibulatov fight.
piglord
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agreed and i think that's pretty low percentage.
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Trust me, he isn’t missing anything.
If you’re parlaying someone you wouldn’t play straight, you’re not thinking about it correctly. Unless you’re pairing events happening simultaneously, you aren’t adding any value by playing them as a parlay but you are sacrificing flexibility. Put differently, if you just play every fighter straight and roll the winnings over from one leg to the next, your payout will be exactly the same. This is lost on lots of people I think.
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I'm pretty sure he's packing glass. I just rewatched Gaethje Poirior. Man Gaethje was really on his way to win and looked like Poirior was visibly hurt and actually about to quit before the timely stoppage due to the eye poke. The leg kicks were seriously getting to him and he got about a 2 minute break and then the 1 minute round break. If that 2 minute break doesn't happen I think he's in serious trouble. He lands a nice counter when Gaethje throws a leg kick and basically ends the fight. Man Gaethje to me looked like he was unlucky there.
Both these guys have shown zero ability to survive when hurt and no IQ. With Gaethje it's all heart. Doesn't shoot when hurt just stays standing and getting hit. Don't be fooled by Vicks talk. He's talking like hes the hardest guy with an iron chin. Vick from what I've seen falls to pieces when he gets hit clean and stays down on the mat after the fight for a couple of minutes to recover.
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I just finished watching tape on both fighters last night.
Figueiredo is an interesting fighter. He is a Brazilian ji jitsu champion with a 68' inch reach, you can see he is skilled and crafty on the ground (watch Jarred Brooks fight) but he prefers to trade and bang on the feet. He started training capoeira at 15 and started training mma with the Alcantara brothers who are third cousins of his a few years later.
He fights like a tazmanian devil, super aggressive, really quick, marches forward and throws with bad intentions. His leads with the jab but loves looking for the uppercut and goes body head sometimes. Really good use of elbows when in close range. His style of fighting is very judge friendly and he is always looking for the finish. Out of his 14 wins, only two went to decision. He is also a big flyweight, he cuts something like 30 pounds to make weight. Surprisingly his cardio is pretty decent. Against Jarred Brooks who imo he lost to, Brooks applied a grappling/wrestling heavy attack and didn't give Figueiredo any room or distance to strike, his cardio looked pretty decent in the 3rd round against Brooks.
John Moraga who is on a bit of a career resurgence with a 3 fight win streak is a freestyle wrestler out of Arizona university with a 66' inch reach. Standing on the feet, Moraga likes to use a check left hook, and straight right counter with some leg kicks. For a fighter with a good wrestling pedigree, he doesn't seem to use his wrestling a lot. He also has a terrible habit of getting taken down and he defends his takedowns by going for his patented guillotine but a lot of times his opponents slip out and end up on top and in his guard and it allows his to score points on the scorecards. I think Figueiredo is too skilled and crafty on the ground to get caught in a guillotine choke. Also, Figueirdeo is adept at using trips to get his opponents to the ground. Reis was using trips to get Moraga to the ground.
I see Figueiredo being a little too quick and dynamic on the feet for Moraga and Figueirdeo will be able to land takedowns just like Wilson Reis did and not get caught in a guillotine choke. As I mentioned, Figueiredo style is very judge friendly with his aggressive forward approach, so if it goes to a decision, I think he gets the nod and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a submission. I think the only way Moraga wins is if he catches Figueiredo with something like a big left hook.
I think the line is pretty accurate and the fight should be close but at the same time, I think Figueiredo should win this fight taking all things into account.
Figueiredo ML @ -142 for 1u. I wouldn't go too crazy in betting this fight. It's some pretty good matchmaking and should be an interesting exciting fight.
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Moraga is the more clean/technical striker but Figueiredo isn't a stationary target and uses a lot of weird angles to strike and has good timing on his striking and the longer reach.
Moraga has a bad habit of using his guillotine choke to stuff shots and if he doesn't get the guillotine choke, his opponents are on top and in his guard and he loses rounds like this and it looks bad in the eyes of the judges. I think Figueiredo is too crafty to get caught in a guillotine choke. Also, Reis used trips to get Moraga to the ground, Figueiredo is really good at using trips to take his opponents down.
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In that regard, if you're looking for big payouts it helps you consider your decisions more when live betting too. You can manually roll over your bets if you want to. Say you're up $400 after starting with $50. You can choose to roll it to the next fighter you WOULD have parlayed for a chance at $800 (for example), or you can cash out on a profit, or you can keep a $300 profit and throw $100 at the next fighter instead of the whole thing. The risk-reward with it is rough. Why not play him straight instead of sacrificing your entire profit? It literally is a straight play with your profits from the earlier legs.
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Think the point was about having to parlay everything up. If you're getting somebody at -170 when you think they should be -900 why can't you just play it straight?
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Yeah. He's essentially arguing that 'My Khabib pick is more EV so I can anchor a parlay with it', when you might as well just play it straight.
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Are you playing Khabib in that fight btw? Gotta think he gets McGregor down at some point and there goes McGregors gas tank
piglord
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Got a great price on Conor KO early at +210. Should be a free hedge if nothing else. Holding that for now and looking to play Khabib in the last week before the fight once the Munchkins get their money on.
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Jake responded to me. WAR JAKE.
Lock it up. 10k coming my way
I actually think most people making parlays do understand perfectly well that it's theoretically the same thing as making a bet and rolling over the stake plus winnings into the next bet. I'm not a big parlay guy myself but the anti-parlay people always fail to take into account simultaneous bets which make the alternative method impossible and the significant line movement that would often mean that you would never get anywhere close to the same price as making the parlay in advance if you waited until the last second on every bet and kept rolling the stake + winnings into the next bet. Not to mention the hassle of making all those bets in real time in the middle of a card and the simple psychological aspect that who the hell wants to bet fifty bucks to win 21 dollars and some change and then bet seventy-something dollars to win fifty-three dollars and some change and then keep doing that over and over again for each leg with all the odd numbers that ends up being rather than a nice tidy betting fifty or a hundred to win say two hundred on a two or three leg parlay. The anti-parlay people would be technically right in what they are saying from one facile perspective, but then ruin their argument by not taking into account the often massive line movement spoiling their one-bet-at-a-time plan or the simple human psychology of wagering.
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Dude, cmon. I don't know all the details but this kind of mindset is probably what screwed you over in poker in the first place. If winning $5k is gonna make you feel decent then you definitely should not be throwing $250 away.
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Luke Sanders lost his WWE girlfriend, she probably dumped him after she realized he's just a low level prelim fighter. They got together when he was undefeated IIRC.
Sanders has also done his camp at Nashville MMA which is where he started his career I believe. Nashville MMA doesn't have any high level fighters, not a high level gym.
Why isn't Sanders at Blackhouse or the Lab? thats where he usually does camp
Sanders has clearly given up on life
Sanders has also done his camp at Nashville MMA which is where he started his career I believe. Nashville MMA doesn't have any high level fighters, not a high level gym.
Why isn't Sanders at Blackhouse or the Lab? thats where he usually does camp
Sanders has clearly given up on life
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No gamble no future
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Parlays are for suckers, very hard to be successful long term betting on parlays
Just ask @Sham5916910 he's been betting parlays for years and he can't even profit on them. And he even uses the best strategy for winning on parlays which is betting two legs. Why are you still betting parlays Sham? last year you didn't even profit on them and this year you have a -11% ROI on them. Learn your lesson and evolve FFS, rookie strategy, I thought you're a big player
I used to bet two leg parlays when I was new to sportsbetting, I had good success with them for a while but eventually my success declined and I was barely breaking even. My results got significantly better once I stopped doing them
#Evolve
