UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

[WhosTheBoss]

Parlays are for suckers, very hard to be successful long term betting on parlays

Just ask @Sham5916910 he's been betting parlays for years and he can't even profit on them. And he even uses the best strategy for winning on parlays which is betting two legs. Why are you still betting parlays Sham? last year you didn't even profit on them and this year you have a -11% ROI on them. Learn your lesson and evolve FFS, rookie strategy, I thought you're a big player

Oh I know they are horrible. But I don’t care. I don’t want to make $21
I want to shoot for the moon

 

[Dianabol]

Oh I know they are horrible. But I don’t care. I don’t want to make $21
I want to shoot for the moon

If you wanna make big money then you gotta play big money, wanna make 5k? bet 5k.

Unfortunately your strategy will never work, you may have some small success here and there but you'll never get to the moon. Nothing wrong with some harmless fun I guess, no one is going to miss $21.... but over time it adds up

When you bet big money, it no longer becomes fun though, the only fun part is the winning, the rest is horrible anxiety.

 

[rev0lver]

Oh I know they are horrible. But I don’t care. I don’t want to make $21
I want to shoot for the moon

Straight bets don't have to net you $21 lol. You have $75 total in parlays with Jake. Betting Jake straight would give you a $300 profit if he wins. With that, you can choose to roll that over on someone like Vick, or choose to keep a profit and bet a smaller amount on a fighter like Vick. Instead you're banking on every one of them to hit. You could reasonably profit a few hundred here with a small start, maybe even over $1k, but instead you're very likely to lose your money

 

[Gugabe]

If you wanna make big money then you gotta play big money, wanna make 5k? bet 5k.

Unfortunately your strategy will never work, you may have some small success here and there but you'll never get to the moon. Nothing wrong with some harmless fun I guess, no one is going to miss $21.... but over time it adds up

When you bet big money, it no longer becomes fun though, the only fun part is the winning, the rest is horrible anxiety.

Tbf you've got an insane ROI.

Six-figures a year whilst displaying no proof or betslips whatsoever. Who needs parlays?

Yeah. It's a mindfuck going over the 4-figure threshold. I used to be a derivatives/futures trader and knew some of the big guys had stories of getting high 6-figure balances rekt in 5 mins when news went the wrong way. Even some of the guys on bank desks had seen 8-figure liquidations under their management. I rarely go over $500 on a single bet unless I'm hedged well.

 

[WhosTheBoss]

I think people are not understanding I am 100% ok with losing the money on the bet. I do not expect to win.

I already forgot about it.

I just want to go to my account in 2 weeks and see $ there.

I’m no a sports bettor... I’m a gambler.
I play poker to earn $ on the side. This is just fun to me.

 

[rev0lver]

Luke Sanders lost his WWE girlfriend, she probably dumped him after she realized he's just a low level prelim fighter. They got together when he was undefeated IIRC.

Sanders has also done his camp at Nashville MMA which is where he started his career I believe. Nashville MMA doesn't have any high level fighters, not a high level gym.

Why isn't Sanders at Blackhouse or the Lab? thats where he usually does camp

Sanders has clearly given up on life

He also dominated both his losses until he got hit with some flukey-ish finishes. He has great grappling and it's hard to see Yahya getting a quick sub on him. If Yahya can't take him down and do any work in the 1st, it should be a smooth fight for Sanders. Favorable matchup for him imo

 

[Joedaman55]

I hear you. But I am an all or nothing person, esp with gambling. I’d rather lose everything I have than to win $10

I want total victory. Lost 15k last week and I need it back. Let’s go war Berger!

Lol I like it, that’s the Chaz Michael Michael spirit.

I play the probabilities but I’ve had a ton a buddies go big on stuff people called crazy. If you’re seeing something and you believe in it, go for it. In the long run you’ll see if it’s the right move or you’ll lose some disposable income and have a good time.

 

[Dianabol]

Tbf you've got an insane ROI.

Six-figures a year whilst displaying no proof or betslips whatsoever. Who needs parlays?

Yeah. It's a mindfuck going over the 4-figure threshold. I used to be a derivatives/futures trader and knew some of the big guys had stories of getting high 6-figure balances rekt in 5 mins when news went the wrong way. Even some of the guys on bank desks had seen 8-figure liquidations under their management. I rarely go over $500 on a single bet unless I'm hedged well.

Yeah all my plays are 4 figures and I don't neglect bankroll management, I have a system. Still get nervous af though and I've learnt that its better not to watch the fights I have money on, it's mental torture, I rarely do it anymore.

But winning is euphoric and the more you win the better. Losing is obviously the opposite, straight up depression. But I've learnt to look at things as a whole and not become obsessed with winning one event or losing one event.

The week of UFC Boise was a complete nightmare for me, worst week I've ever had in terms of loss, got destroyed. But instead of obsessing over it how bad it was and being all depressed, I looked at my overall success and how I've dealt with bad events in the past. Always better to look at things as a whole.

When you go on massive winning streak you build momentum and you eventually become over zealous and over confident and it leads to making bad decisions. When you lose your confidence is in the gutter and you feel more conservative about your plays. I'm still learning to deal with that but its a cycle I seem to repeat.

It's a completely different mentality when you place big bets, if I wasn't as successful as I am there is no way I'd do it, like I said the only fun part is winning the rest can be exciting but not fun

I never hedge either, I'd only hedge if I thought my play was going to lose and I never play anything if I think it'll lose. Jake Ellenberger could be +2000, I still wouldn't bet him. The only time I've really hedged was when Hendricks fought Gastelum and Hendricks looked like the walking dead on the scale so I bought out of it.

I don't know much about trading stocks or crypto, but it seems like the outcomes can be quite volatile sometimes. I'd feel like dying if I saw a massive 6 figure investment get rekt in seconds.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

I've learnt that its better not to watch the fights I have money on, it's mental torture, I rarely do it anymore.

Really? Opposite for me.
Only way Im watching fights like Hill vs that other generic girl or Dober-Tuck is because I have money on them.
Damn.. I even watched soccer, baseball and (worst of all) american football because I had bets placed.

 

[Dianabol]

He also dominated both his losses until he got hit with some flukey-ish finishes. He has great grappling and it's hard to see Yahya getting a quick sub on him. If Yahya can't take him down and do any work in the 1st, it should be a smooth fight for Sanders. Favorable matchup for him imo

Seems like there is something wrong with the guy mentally, he can be dominating a fight and then just throw it away, seems like he has a front runner sort of mentality. The way he dominated Alcantara and then subtly tapped to the knee bar was weird, didn't struggle or try to escape, just quickly tapped in front of his WWE girlfriend and gave away his undefeated record. I know kneebars are painful and scary but its a fight and Sanders lacked the will to win.

I had 5u maxbet on Sanders vs Souk and he kind of gave that fight away too, whenn he got dropped I didn't like the way he reacted, seemed like he was accepting defeat. And losing to a bum like Souk is embarrassing, that guy sucks.

Vs Williams I was really unimpressed. Sanders just throws the same combination over and over, seemed so limited with his offence and the fact that he couldn't get the old man out of there was not a good look. That fight was also surprisingly competitive.

I'm not betting Yahya but I do favour him, he's won 7 of his last 8 and he's fairly consistent with his approach, that ground game might be too much for Sanders and Yahya does a good job bringing his opponents into his world. I wouldn't trust Sanders in this spot, I don't like the way he's approaching this fight, training at Nashville MMA is probably a big mistake when preparing for a guy like Yahya. Meanwhile Yahya is still at ATT trying to improve and training with beasts.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Does Vick have a glass chin? He was all over the place and out pretty badly in the Dariush fight and when he got stopped on TUF he was seeing stars on the ground. Has he ever taken shots well in a fight? He just looks like the kind of guy with a glass chin to me. The Dariush fight was very concerning if you're backing Vick

IMO he is chinny, Beneil kod him bad.
But on the other side we dont know how much chin has Justin left..

 

[rev0lver]

When you go on massive winning streak you build momentum and you eventually become over zealous and over confident and it leads to making bad decisions.

LOL this is very true. I had a bunch of 4-1 nights this season of the contenders series. I feel like my analysis is on point, overbet the weekend card afterward and lose money.

Seems like there is something wrong with the guy mentally, he can be dominating a fight and then just throw it away, seems like he has a front runner sort of mentality. The way he dominated Alcantara and then subtly tapped to the knee bar was weird, didn't struggle or try to escape, just quickly tapped in front of his WWE girlfriend and gave away his undefeated record. I know kneebars are painful and scary but its a fight and Sanders lacked the will to win.

Some subs like that, if locked in properly, are virtually impossible to struggle through. It looks like he gave up but realistically there was no point in delaying a tap and risk fucking up his leg.

I put a lot of money on the Souk fight too, but I wouldn't say he reacted poorly. It seemed like he had a flash knockout, and didn't have his wits about him in the moments afterward. That's pretty common. Even if the Williams fight was a bit sloppy, he showed his toughness there.

Yahya is not much of a striking threat to him, and Luke will probably pick him apart if he starts gassing (which he can have a tendency to do). I think the Soto fight is a good comparison to this. Yes Yahya is 6-1 in his last 7, but his wins were all against bums who have already been cut from the UFC or are waiting for the pink slip.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I actually think most people making parlays do understand perfectly well that it's theoretically the same thing as making a bet and rolling over the stake plus winnings into the next bet. I'm not a big parlay guy myself but the anti-parlay people always fail to take into account simultaneous bets which make the alternative method impossible and the significant line movement that would often mean that you would never get anywhere close to the same price as making the parlay in advance if you waited until the last second on every bet and kept rolling the stake + winnings into the next bet. Not to mention the hassle of making all those bets in real time in the middle of a card and the simple psychological aspect that who the hell wants to bet fifty bucks to win 21 dollars and some change and then bet seventy-something dollars to win fifty-three dollars and some change and then keep doing that over and over again for each leg with all the odd numbers that ends up being rather than a nice tidy betting fifty or a hundred to win say two hundred on a two or three leg parlay. The anti-parlay people would be technically right in what they are saying from one facile perspective, but then ruin their argument by not taking into account the often massive line movement spoiling their one-bet-at-a-time plan or the simple human psychology of wagering.

I specifically mentioned simultaneous plays are an exception, but your points about inconvenience, psychology and especially price movement are well taken.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I never hedge either . . . Jake Ellenberger could be +2000, I still wouldn't bet him.

Wait, what?

 

[zeckdo]

conor vs. khabib breakdown

great post, I read up until the last line and I still would have bet on Conor's ML. No way I'm trusting Khabib's chin vs one of the most accurate/powerful strikers in the ufc at -160. If I was betting Khabib I would be on his decision (was +4xx earlier but +350 now) and rounds 3,4,5 type shit.

 

[rev0lver]

great post, I read up until the last line and I still would have bet on Conor's ML. No way I'm trusting Khabib's chin vs one of the most accurate/powerful strikers in the ufc at -160. If I was betting Khabib I would be on his decision (was +4xx earlier but +350 now) and rounds 3,4,5 type shit.

Why his ML? KO is probably the only way Conor wins here

Also this is getting off topic for this thread but Khabib walked through a lot of heavy shots in the Barboza fight. People get hung up on the MJ punch too much. Just food for thought

 

[burge13]

Khabib needs to get through the first and end that with more in the tank than Conor has. After that he can do as he pleases

I think this will look like Stipe/Ngannou. Sure the striker will land a couple shots but the grappler will take over once cardio is gone and make it look easy from there

 

[Gugabe]

Yeah all my plays are 4 figures and I don't neglect bankroll management, I have a system. Still get nervous af though and I've learnt that its better not to watch the fights I have money on, it's mental torture, I rarely do it anymore.

But winning is euphoric and the more you win the better. Losing is obviously the opposite, straight up depression. But I've learnt to look at things as a whole and not become obsessed with winning one event or losing one event.

The week of UFC Boise was a complete nightmare for me, worst week I've ever had in terms of loss, got destroyed. But instead of obsessing over it how bad it was and being all depressed, I looked at my overall success and how I've dealt with bad events in the past. Always better to look at things as a whole.

When you go on massive winning streak you build momentum and you eventually become over zealous and over confident and it leads to making bad decisions. When you lose your confidence is in the gutter and you feel more conservative about your plays. I'm still learning to deal with that but its a cycle I seem to repeat.

It's a completely different mentality when you place big bets, if I wasn't as successful as I am there is no way I'd do it, like I said the only fun part is winning the rest can be exciting but not fun

I never hedge either, I'd only hedge if I thought my play was going to lose and I never play anything if I think it'll lose. Jake Ellenberger could be +2000, I still wouldn't bet him. The only time I've really hedged was when Hendricks fought Gastelum and Hendricks looked like the walking dead on the scale so I bought out of it.

I don't know much about trading stocks or crypto, but it seems like the outcomes can be quite volatile sometimes. I'd feel like dying if I saw a massive 6 figure investment get rekt in seconds.

Crypto's pure degeneracy. Might as well take swings on roulette. Hedging's useful if you've got the right tools to work with. Livebetting, props and the like mean you can easily adjust the risk on a position, or if you know how to predict line movement. Consistency/level-headedness takes a while to learn. You get punched in the face a lot with financial trading and sportsbetting, best to learn to roll.

great post, I read up until the last line and I still would have bet on Conor's ML. No way I'm trusting Khabib's chin vs one of the most accurate/powerful strikers in the ufc at -160. If I was betting Khabib I would be on his decision (was +4xx earlier but +350 now) and rounds 3,4,5 type shit.

I think people constantly overstate Conor's power and countering ability. Michael Johnson and Barboza both likely hit harder than Conor shot-for-shot, and I'm not confident in Conor being able to effectively dictate distance against a guy like Khabib.

 

[Dianabol]

LOL this is very true. I had a bunch of 4-1 nights this season of the contenders series. I feel like my analysis is on point, overbet the weekend card afterward and lose money.



Some subs like that, if locked in properly, are virtually impossible to struggle through. It looks like he gave up but realistically there was no point in delaying a tap and risk fucking up his leg.

I put a lot of money on the Souk fight too, but I wouldn't say he reacted poorly. It seemed like he had a flash knockout, and didn't have his wits about him in the moments afterward. That's pretty common. Even if the Williams fight was a bit sloppy, he showed his toughness there.

Yahya is not much of a striking threat to him, and Luke will probably pick him apart if he starts gassing (which he can have a tendency to do). I think the Soto fight is a good comparison to this. Yes Yahya is 6-1 in his last 7, but his wins were all against bums who have already been cut from the UFC or are waiting for the pink slip.

He gave up on that kneebar way too easy, he didn't even really grimace before the tap, it was so anti climactic the way he tapped, after the way he had dominated the fight. I know leglocks are scary af but it's live competition and you gotta at least try, he didn't, he just quit. And against Souk, he was knocked down, he could have reacted better than he did but instead he let the ref come in and stop it. That shit really doesn't impress me and it makes me question a fighters heart and will to win.

I'm not that confident in Yahya but I've lost faith in Saunders. Last two performances were not impressive and it was against bum competiton, he should of dominated both those guys.

Sanders isn't high level in any skillset, he's only has good as he is because he's a good athlete. If Sanders can stop the TD's and make Yahya gas then thats his path to victory but Yahya does a great job of taking his opponents to the mat.

Yahya has taken all 7 of his last opponents down at least once. Sanders has been taken down at least once by every UFC opponent that tried to take him down. Yahya is actually a decent wrestler and I think he's going to get Sanders down, one TD might be all Yahya needs to win.

I'd be more inclined to pick Sanders if he was taking this camp more seriously and training with a top level team and bringing in high level BJJ players. Yahya is a specialist and if you want to have the best chance at beating him then you need to prepare the right way, I don't think Sanders is doing that at all. What elite level BJJ players are at Nashville MMA?

I know Yahya will be well prepared for this fight, ATT has a lot of good 135ers to train with and a lot of good coaches.

Tough fight to pick but I just trust Yahya a lot more than I do Sanders. Both guys have clear paths to victory

 

[Gugabe]

He gave up on that kneebar way too easy, he didn't even really grimace before the tap, it was so anti climactic the way he tapped, after the way he had dominated the fight. I know leglocks are scary af but it's live competition and you gotta at least try, he didn't, he just quit. And against Souk, he was knocked down, he could have reacted better than he did but instead he let the ref come in and stop it. That shit really doesn't impress me and it makes me question a fighters heart and will to win.

I'm not that confident in Yahya but I've lost faith in Saunders. Last two performances were not impressive and it was against bum competiton, he should of dominated both those guys.

Sanders isn't high level in any skillset, he's only has good as he is because he's a good athlete. If Sanders can stop the TD's and make Yahya gas then thats his path to victory but Yahya does a great job of taking his opponents to the mat.

Yahya has taken all 7 of his last opponents down at least once. Sanders has been taken down at least once by every UFC opponent that tried to take him down. Yahya is actually a decent wrestler and I think he's going to get Sanders down, one TD might be all Yahya needs to win.

I'd be more inclined to pick Sanders if he was taking this camp more seriously and training with a top level team and bringing in high level BJJ players. Yahya is a specialist and if you want to have the best chance at beating him then you need to prepare the right way, I don't think Sanders is doing that at all. What elite level BJJ players are at Nashville MMA?

I know Yahya will be well prepared for this fight, ATT has a lot of good 135ers to train with and a lot of good coaches.

Tough fight to pick but I just trust Yahya a lot more than I do Sanders. Both guys have clear paths to victory

IMO it's a hard fight to find an edge in. I suspect that the winner will look insanely dominant, whethe rit's a quick sub 1 by Yahya or Sanders beating the brakes off him, but it's hard to decide which is going to happen pre-fight.