UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

Any Value on Sullivan? Mickey talks a big game but his game seem's very limited to me. On the feet Gall seem's very uneasy turns his back away in some exchanges and sometimes just says " fuck it" and plants. Sullivan is a big strong dude whose gas tank issue have improved into his older age. He obviously is not some striking wizard but with his limited striking he does seem to be confident. His GNP is pretty strong and while Mickey likes the floor he is the type of guy who will just pull guard because that's his happy place.
 
Alves not KO is -244 on Betsafe while Alves KO is +400 on other books if anyone wants a freeroll
 
WetBlanket said:
Any Value on Sullivan? Mickey talks a big game but his game seem's very limited to me. On the feet Gall seem's very uneasy turns his back away in some exchanges and sometimes just says " fuck it" and plants. Sullivan is a big strong dude whose gas tank issue have improved into his older age. He obviously is not some striking wizard but with his limited striking he does seem to be confident. His GNP is pretty strong and while Mickey likes the floor he is the type of guy who will just pull guard because that's his happy place.
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His striking is worse than Gall's even if Mickey hasn't improved at all (which he likely has given how new he is to MMA). Sullivan has slowed a lot in multiple fights even where the pace wasn't crazy. And on the mat he only lands good gnp vs guys who suck off their back. If Sullivan tries to posture up he's getting swept. And he's just not good enough staying heavy to hold Gall down even close to as well as Brown did.

Gall itd is the play imo. He's gonna thrash Sullivan. I also took a small flier on Gall KO at +900 because odds were crazy.
 
mkess101 said:
His striking is worse than Gall's even if Mickey hasn't improved at all (which he likely has given how new he is to MMA). Sullivan has slowed a lot in multiple fights even where the pace wasn't crazy. And on the mat he only lands good gnp vs guys who suck off their back. If Sullivan tries to posture up he's getting swept. And he's just not good enough staying heavy to hold Gall down even close to as well as Brown did.

Gall itd is the play imo. He's gonna thrash Sullivan. I also took a small flier on Gall KO at +900 because odds were crazy.
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Wouldn't betting both Gall KO and SUB (+105) give better odds than playing his ITD at -145? Too tired to math
 
raketmannen said:
Wouldn't betting both Gall KO and SUB (+105) give better odds than playing his ITD at -145? Too tired to math
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Not sure now. KO is down to like +680 I think. I'm not doing the math either LOL. I'm in the Bahamas on vacation...no math.

Killing the Atlantis sportsbook so far, which is good because they've taken about half of it back at the tables. Think I'm gonna call it quits for the trip for blackjack and just keep trying to maul them betting baseball.
 
mkess101 said:
Not sure now. KO is down to like +680 I think. I'm not doing the math either LOL. I'm in the Bahamas on vacation...no math.

Killing the Atlantis sportsbook so far, which is good because they've taken about half of it back at the tables. Think I'm gonna call it quits for the trip for blackjack and just keep trying to maul them betting baseball.
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Never play table games. They're shmuck bait. AP Blackjack is possible, but takes a ton of work, deep pockets and a huge sample size. Vegas does their monthly reports on the gambling industry, and it's striking how only about 6% of the profit is created through Sportsbooks. 60~% is created through Slot Machines.
 
The vig/spread on blackjack is only 2% isn't it (dependent on how many decks) whereas slots only have to pay out $0.87 for every $1.00 entered so they're just printing 13% on every $. I'm surprised the slots aren't making up more than 60% to be honest
 
burge13 said:
The vig/spread on blackjack is only 2% isn't it (dependent on how many decks) whereas slots only have to pay out $0.87 for every $1.00 entered so they're just printing 13% on every $. I'm surprised the slots aren't making up more than 60% to be honest
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You can find the reports online. They're categorised as 'Table Games', 'Slots' and 'Sportsbook' from memory.
 
barrygood1 said:
Ya'll haven't seen me around these parts and rightfully so. I've documented my personal struggles and things are only getting worse. Don't know if therapy is helping or making matters worse, but things are looking bleak. Still, I do what I am good at and that is handicapping and placing wagers. Been on a monumental uptick probably hitting at a 65% clip on my value bets. Have 10k set aside for the Mcgregor/Nurmagomedov clash.

Please pray for me and I appreciate all the support from the peeps who've kept it real with me and haven't dissed me. One of the original OG's of the Sherdog betting community. Started from nothing and am at a place where very few can succeed.

- Barry
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any tips for this card barry?
 
mkess101 said:
Not sure now. KO is down to like +680 I think. I'm not doing the math either LOL. I'm in the Bahamas on vacation...no math.

Killing the Atlantis sportsbook so far, which is good because they've taken about half of it back at the tables. Think I'm gonna call it quits for the trip for blackjack and just keep trying to maul them betting baseball.
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Homey! You in the Bahamas?
 
George looked quite ok against Niko Price, Im afraid to put Gall in parlay because of that.
Im more confident in Sanders that he gets the job done than in Mickey.
Strange.. I know
 
I put some on the under 1½ for Anders/Williams, Gall/Sullivan & Barberena/Ellenberger. Most heavy on Anders/Williams Under 1½.
 
Gugabe said:
Never play table games. They're shmuck bait. AP Blackjack is possible, but takes a ton of work, deep pockets and a huge sample size. Vegas does their monthly reports on the gambling industry, and it's striking how only about 6% of the profit is created through Sportsbooks. 60~% is created through Slot Machines.
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Don’t be so f boring and get down in the pit! Yolo!
 
SBJJ said:
Homey! You in the Bahamas?
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Yep. You are too?

I'm with the wife and kid for a little vacation. Not gambling a lot honestly, more here for all the other stuff but took some lumps at the tables yesterday. Luckily more than made up for it by crushing baseball.
 
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Wiktoruspro said:
I played this parlay
Sanders
Drew Dober
Faria
50 to win 284
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Faria is trash. She does everything in a fight but nothing stands out. Calderwoon is way better striker and can survive on the ground if she needs. Bum bet imo but good luck lol

Sanders gonna show his IQ lol. Idk bro but your parlay is bust
 
Karmello said:
Changed my mind on the Faria - Calderwood fight. Pre-tape I placed a bet on Faria @+175, because I thought the odds were good, but now I can see Joanne putting a beating on her. Joanne has looked great at 125 before and I think this is the division for her and I'm really not that impressed with Faria.

Will probably use my +175 bet on Faria as a hedge to get a small bet in on Calderwood at good odds.

But I would like to hear how the Faria backers see this fight playing out.
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I share your opinion. Pre tape I was on Faria too but when I analyzed tape. Oh noes. Will be one sided beating imo 30-27
 
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