piglord
Black Belt
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think iuri ruins your night.
UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE
- Thread starter Naught2Sixty
- Start date
think iuri ruins your night.
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Yeah. I'm getting Natal-Anders vibes from that line, and Iuri's recent non-Soto performances.
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I got banned from The Greek for betting a bad line back when I even didn't know what a bad line is. I tried to explain the customer service person that and got a reply that was something like "I asked out manager about your case. He said that you are lying and that you should take your money and leave." I loved the direct no nonsense approach.
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I know tufs different but he was 170 there and looked awful. I dont think he can pot shot warley at all i think warleys the better striker krause is so hittable and krause also has horrible tdd. Not to mention he kicks a lot which warley will happily catch and hit tds off. Warley has paced himself way better last two fights and his cardios been fine. Easy to forgets hes only 27 too.
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I don’t really see how Krause can win this unless Alves fucks up and I don’t think Alves will fuck up until he’s got more momentum to mess with his head and/or is fighting to entertain the home crowd.
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Cory
-says could have done better in his ufc debut, but fixing few things up
-went into his last fight a mental monster
-wanted to go to 135 since its an easier path to belt
-no issues cutting weight on last fight didnt even sweat just dieted down on water even
will only need 10 pounds to lose to do i, walking much lighter lately
-had to snack on foods just to keep weight up
-doesnt like watching opponents tape till 2-3 weeks before the fight, likes luri opponent here
-luri has the experience and under 50 fights but hes goofy, the style is great for him
luri will be too slow to hit me, but will keep his guard up constantly and can't slack here
-trainings fine with usual guys, managed to get a full 8 week training camp this time
-elevation has lots of new guys so always easy , lots of wrestlers to train with also
and good strikers like dober. Been a while since fighting southpaw opponent.
-7 hr ride to get to venue on saturday
-cross trained at eastons and at high altitude also factor x
-elliot marshall and christian alan in corner
-always hurt my hands during fights so will see in this one
Anders
-discusses his football career in past
-started off with some ji jitsu and striking classes
-williams throws straights and gets into peoples faces alot, so match up well
with him.
-will look to close the gap, will want to keep it standing. He may try to get my back
to fence and try to get on top. Wants to keep it standing to get the ko shot
-timo yama, tito vera, alex perez, trained with
-trained at ufc pi and xtreme courture also so got some new looks in
-discusses ufc deal with russian m1 scene
-knows he has the athletic advantage here due to his footballing days
-not worried if taken down, there was a point where I was a turtle off my back but not anymore
am confident I can sweep anyone and reverse.
Fili
-not happy with getting split d win over bermudez
-wants to make a statement with a win here against mj, wants a ko win to climb the ranks
-wants a top 5 guy after this one
-elkins team mate beat mj so its good insight and and advantage to have for this camp and fight
-his coach castillo was beating mj also but just didnt go his way and he got caught also
-coachs and team know mj and myself well so very well prepared for this fight
-training with chad mendes, elkins, rick glenn, got a french kickboxer and 2 twins from europe too
-get lots of new looks with fighting these newer upcoming guys too
-s&C and weight is going well
-eating clean but tempted to eat some oreos and pizza but with eating clean I get good power
-not sure if mj ranked but he wants a number next to his name
Vick
-doing some acupuncture being 1 week out from fight night
-training to be smart with weight cut and approach here
-discusses drama of cancelled al fight, not sure if he still had issues with contract or ufc or bad knee
-everything I said in the press conference was the truth, doesnt feel the need to play a charactor
or trash talk but understands the game also
-style wise am a nightmare for justin, its gonna be a rough night for him only thing I need to worry
about is his leg kicks and maybe an overhand left or left hook
-am a high volume striker with 6 inch reach advantage and hes gonna come forward at me
like homer simpson
-my cardio and volume is better then justins, I also hit harder then him hes not fighting tomato cans
-coaches and usual training partners for this one, got george lockharts program to follow
-If I wanted I could strike from the outside and win a boring decision but its not fan friendly and justin
not that kind of fighter either, could hit justin with something clean in r1 even, he just doesnt
have any other way to win here
-a win over justin should put me at 6-7 position, still need a few more from title shot though
-theres also kevin lee who has no opponent yet....and hes texted him to set up a fight and lee has denied it many times in past despite having the text messages on my phone still.
-gonna team up with kenny florians podcast and will cover some of the sports section for him
-says could have done better in his ufc debut, but fixing few things up
-went into his last fight a mental monster
-wanted to go to 135 since its an easier path to belt
-no issues cutting weight on last fight didnt even sweat just dieted down on water even
will only need 10 pounds to lose to do i, walking much lighter lately
-had to snack on foods just to keep weight up
-doesnt like watching opponents tape till 2-3 weeks before the fight, likes luri opponent here
-luri has the experience and under 50 fights but hes goofy, the style is great for him
luri will be too slow to hit me, but will keep his guard up constantly and can't slack here
-trainings fine with usual guys, managed to get a full 8 week training camp this time
-elevation has lots of new guys so always easy , lots of wrestlers to train with also
and good strikers like dober. Been a while since fighting southpaw opponent.
-7 hr ride to get to venue on saturday
-cross trained at eastons and at high altitude also factor x
-elliot marshall and christian alan in corner
-always hurt my hands during fights so will see in this one
Anders
-discusses his football career in past
-started off with some ji jitsu and striking classes
-williams throws straights and gets into peoples faces alot, so match up well
with him.
-will look to close the gap, will want to keep it standing. He may try to get my back
to fence and try to get on top. Wants to keep it standing to get the ko shot
-timo yama, tito vera, alex perez, trained with
-trained at ufc pi and xtreme courture also so got some new looks in
-discusses ufc deal with russian m1 scene
-knows he has the athletic advantage here due to his footballing days
-not worried if taken down, there was a point where I was a turtle off my back but not anymore
am confident I can sweep anyone and reverse.
Fili
-not happy with getting split d win over bermudez
-wants to make a statement with a win here against mj, wants a ko win to climb the ranks
-wants a top 5 guy after this one
-elkins team mate beat mj so its good insight and and advantage to have for this camp and fight
-his coach castillo was beating mj also but just didnt go his way and he got caught also
-coachs and team know mj and myself well so very well prepared for this fight
-training with chad mendes, elkins, rick glenn, got a french kickboxer and 2 twins from europe too
-get lots of new looks with fighting these newer upcoming guys too
-s&C and weight is going well
-eating clean but tempted to eat some oreos and pizza but with eating clean I get good power
-not sure if mj ranked but he wants a number next to his name
Vick
-doing some acupuncture being 1 week out from fight night
-training to be smart with weight cut and approach here
-discusses drama of cancelled al fight, not sure if he still had issues with contract or ufc or bad knee
-everything I said in the press conference was the truth, doesnt feel the need to play a charactor
or trash talk but understands the game also
-style wise am a nightmare for justin, its gonna be a rough night for him only thing I need to worry
about is his leg kicks and maybe an overhand left or left hook
-am a high volume striker with 6 inch reach advantage and hes gonna come forward at me
like homer simpson
-my cardio and volume is better then justins, I also hit harder then him hes not fighting tomato cans
-coaches and usual training partners for this one, got george lockharts program to follow
-If I wanted I could strike from the outside and win a boring decision but its not fan friendly and justin
not that kind of fighter either, could hit justin with something clean in r1 even, he just doesnt
have any other way to win here
-a win over justin should put me at 6-7 position, still need a few more from title shot though
-theres also kevin lee who has no opponent yet....and hes texted him to set up a fight and lee has denied it many times in past despite having the text messages on my phone still.
-gonna team up with kenny florians podcast and will cover some of the sports section for him
Confidence increase in MJ. He's in for a rough night if he's not even thinking about a wrestling approach
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Actually I had exactly the same case a year ago - betted something on reasonable odds and got kicked for it (misusing a bad line). Superb bookie..
Re: Jojo/Faria
The more I look at Jojo's number, and I have been anti-Calderwood in the past, the more it looks like the odds are dead on, if not at a bit of a bargain. Faria has simply not looked good since the Karolina Kowalkiewicz fight, which if you get a split decision on foreign soil like that, it is really a win. But that Faria has been nowhere to be found - out-striking Karolina, dominating the ground.. where did that girl go? I don't know if it's the bright lights of the UFC, or what. Faria had flashes of success on the feet but gotten easily out-wrestled by Jessica Eye like Eye was a NCAA wrestler. Borella came out looking like Daniel Cormier and got that finish on the ground, and prior to that, Borella had only finished cans.
Jojo does not react that well to pressure, but she still has the cleaner striking, and has wrestling that at least rivals Eye's, who admittedly improved in that respect. But where Eye will take risks scrambling, Jojo is more content to hold position and pound away. So unless Faria scores right away on the feet, I think she will get out-volumed, if not taken down and defeated there.
The more I look at Jojo's number, and I have been anti-Calderwood in the past, the more it looks like the odds are dead on, if not at a bit of a bargain. Faria has simply not looked good since the Karolina Kowalkiewicz fight, which if you get a split decision on foreign soil like that, it is really a win. But that Faria has been nowhere to be found - out-striking Karolina, dominating the ground.. where did that girl go? I don't know if it's the bright lights of the UFC, or what. Faria had flashes of success on the feet but gotten easily out-wrestled by Jessica Eye like Eye was a NCAA wrestler. Borella came out looking like Daniel Cormier and got that finish on the ground, and prior to that, Borella had only finished cans.
Jojo does not react that well to pressure, but she still has the cleaner striking, and has wrestling that at least rivals Eye's, who admittedly improved in that respect. But where Eye will take risks scrambling, Jojo is more content to hold position and pound away. So unless Faria scores right away on the feet, I think she will get out-volumed, if not taken down and defeated there.
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Kraus gonna get finished.
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Here are two semi detailed breakdowns of mine in two fights I am confident in.
Yahya moneyline over Sanders. I highly doubt Sanders will get a finish here. He has trouble landing precision shots even though he has power and it will be extremely hard to land a kill shot on Yahya who has underrated striking and high fight iq who evades punches well by staying far away on the perimeter. Furthermore, I feel like a Sanders sprawl and brawl decision for 3 straight rounds is just as unlikely. Although Sanders has some decent wrestling chops, Yahya has plenty of diverse takedowns and chain wrestling to disrupt the timing of Sanders takedown defense. Once Yahya takes Sanders down, I expect Yahya to use his heavy top game to win rounds via control and probably get a submission. Sanders does the classic "wrestler giving up his back" escape to get to to his feet which is an excellent tactic but ill advised vs a guy like Yahya. If Sanders gives up his back, Yahya will slap in a body triangle and work for a sub or just get a more dominant position of control. Yahya should melt him and eventually sub him. A Sanders win is not out of the question but Yahya at near even money is an obvious play to me.
Calderwood moneyline over Faria. I have made a killing this year betting on women fights by simply picking the volume fighter if the fight was likely going to be a striking affair. Calderwood has way more of a diverse striking arsenal than Faria and throws way more volume and should be fine on the feet. Faria has some decent straight punches, but I doubt power shots will win her rounds. I see a lot of this fight being on the feet and if it does go to the mat, I actually think Calderwood will be the one getting the takedowns. Calderwood uses a devastating thai plum to control opponents and land strikes on the feet and she uses this to get takedowns as well. I actually have not seen someone use the plum that often to get takedowns in mma. It is interesting because it is probably just a nuanced / mixed technique that Calderwood learned from her thai boxing days and realized in the gym that she can get tds with it. I expect Calderwood to win pretty convincingly with volume and occasional tds and top control as Faria stays flat on her back once taken down.
Yahya moneyline over Sanders. I highly doubt Sanders will get a finish here. He has trouble landing precision shots even though he has power and it will be extremely hard to land a kill shot on Yahya who has underrated striking and high fight iq who evades punches well by staying far away on the perimeter. Furthermore, I feel like a Sanders sprawl and brawl decision for 3 straight rounds is just as unlikely. Although Sanders has some decent wrestling chops, Yahya has plenty of diverse takedowns and chain wrestling to disrupt the timing of Sanders takedown defense. Once Yahya takes Sanders down, I expect Yahya to use his heavy top game to win rounds via control and probably get a submission. Sanders does the classic "wrestler giving up his back" escape to get to to his feet which is an excellent tactic but ill advised vs a guy like Yahya. If Sanders gives up his back, Yahya will slap in a body triangle and work for a sub or just get a more dominant position of control. Yahya should melt him and eventually sub him. A Sanders win is not out of the question but Yahya at near even money is an obvious play to me.
Calderwood moneyline over Faria. I have made a killing this year betting on women fights by simply picking the volume fighter if the fight was likely going to be a striking affair. Calderwood has way more of a diverse striking arsenal than Faria and throws way more volume and should be fine on the feet. Faria has some decent straight punches, but I doubt power shots will win her rounds. I see a lot of this fight being on the feet and if it does go to the mat, I actually think Calderwood will be the one getting the takedowns. Calderwood uses a devastating thai plum to control opponents and land strikes on the feet and she uses this to get takedowns as well. I actually have not seen someone use the plum that often to get takedowns in mma. It is interesting because it is probably just a nuanced / mixed technique that Calderwood learned from her thai boxing days and realized in the gym that she can get tds with it. I expect Calderwood to win pretty convincingly with volume and occasional tds and top control as Faria stays flat on her back once taken down.
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I'd say if you really think Krause is trash and overmatched here that Warlley itd at -115 makes way more sense than his ridiculous ML price of -385. With a select few exceptions, my view is that if something like a -400 ML is justified then that guy really should finish his opponent.
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I'd love to play Alves KO at +450, serious value on that imo, but Betsafe is the only book offering props that I'm not limited on and they got it at +175 and it hasn't changed in 4 days so guess I will have to stick with ITD
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I don't think hes trash I think hes done. -400 is zero value and I really dont like going heavy on props. I have a bad record so far on props.
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Nobody ever lost $ by taking a pass. I'll prob just look for a good live bet opportunity.
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Feels like it sometimes lol.
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That has to bee some kind of mistake. His dec+sub+tko line gives combined 1.8 odds for his moneyline.
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Money coming in on Touchy. Johnson now a slight dog.
Edit* still not touching that by the way. Cant trust 'em.
Edit* still not touching that by the way. Cant trust 'em.
