UFC Fight Night 137

[turbozed]

But is the overall finishing rate for strawweights the key point here? I'd rather look at 75% of Chambers losses comes from being finished by lesser competition than Souza is, while Souza has finished 6 of her last 7 wins and Chambers is almost 40. You got decent odds on her decision though, down to +240 now

Good point but I think it's important to factor in the time horizon and competition level too. Chambers had a lot of sub losses but 2012-2015 was pretty early era MMA. We've seen a lot of girls, especially at 115, improve their game a lot in the past 3 years. I'd have to double check but I think the finish rate must have declined significantly in the past couple of years since girls now have learned to defend armbars and panic less when their back is taken. We saw that the women's flyweight TUF finale was arm-bar city because the girls were low level and fighting on the UFC. You remove those fights from the database and the decision rate probably jumps a couple percentage points.

Also '6 of last 7' is a pretty arbitrary horizon that crosses into very low level regional stuff for Livia. Of course Livia is going to finish 1-2 fighters and girls in 'Circuito Talent.' If you just take her Invicta 5 invicta fights though, she has finished within 3 rounds in only 2 fights. So 2 out of 5 makes more sense at the higher level.

 

[Larthus]

If you came to me in 2014 and told me that in just four years, Renan Barao would be on one of the sharpest declines in MMA history, I would laugh in your face

 

[lefontes]

Barao is dead.

 

[Stunna77]

Barao is dead.

Think he actually looks pretty decent there tbh

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Barao is dead.

He's fiiiiiiine.

 

[Karmello]

Barao is dead.

Not even that bad, he always looks that way

 

[LiquidNuke]

Does anyone have any thoughts on Capoeira ITD at -185?

Chase Sherman also came in way too heavy (257 I think. How the hell is he even that heavy?) to implement what would have been his best shot against Sakai... moving and boxing and nicking a decision. Think he gets knocked out to be honest, he always looks so terribly hittable against everyone. Sakai isn't ever going to be a top five heavyweight talent, he'll be lucky if he ends up in the top 10... But I do think he's that much more trust worthy than Sherman.

 

[lifeisgood12345]

I bet some Marreta decision +850. Think this could be similar to Machida vs Anders where it's slow paced because they respect each other's power, and then decision goes to the Brazilian guy. Although I believe Santos will win more decisively than Machida, bc he's younger and better.

Also being at 205 makes the weight cut lighter for both guys and should help their chins. Obviously it prob ends in KO but at +850 odds I had to take a stab.

 

[Karmello]

Dirty, but a good sign for the Barao backers!

 

[danareem]

Anders by sub @29.00 wtf

 

[null]

Barao missing by that much, declining to cut further and no cap on how much Barao is allowed to weigh tomorrow is great for Barao backers statistically.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

fyi, Dunham and Leites are both fighting for the last time this weekend.

 

[null]

 

[Card]

 

[burge13]

What are peoples thoughts on Spann KO at +140ish?

 

[Captain Crunch28]

What are peoples thoughts on Spann KO at +140ish?

Lol dude ... don’t ever bet on Spann

 

[ill800]

If I remember correctly, which quite often I don’t, guys often lose in their retirement fights

Anyhow, Trinaldos line has dropped quiet a bit. May be playable at -190

 

[burge13]

Lol dude ... don’t ever bet on Spann

Yeah agree for the most part. Henrique is terrible though...Might just stick with the 2 bets i have (Barao and Markos)

Did like Sherman earlier in the week but gone off it. If the over 1.5 had a + next to it here (is -140), I'd bet that too. Light card though

 

[Oblivian]

Lol dude ... don’t ever bet on Spann

I've made good money on Spann between LFA and Contender Series.

 

[weedreference]

Lol dude ... don’t ever bet on Spann

This is a great matchup for Spann imo... his weakness is more strikers than grapplers. The speed advantage will be great for him here. Henrique has never beaten a decent fighter, and Spann has skill... his chin is the problem, but that's not as much an issue against Henrique.