Everybody is confidently picking winners and even worse - betting on this fight. I say avoid this mess! Here me out why:
Cynthia is not good standing up. Too much empty movement and hitting the air. But in women's divisions (and not only) this is often rewarded by the judges. The fights look different live and often judges can not see which hits are connecting and which are not, and often they give the fight to the one fighter who is at least visibly more active. Also, Poliana is chucking those kicks without a care in the world. Calvillo's TD game is almost excluisively catching kicks and single legs. Or if you take her down she scramble and take your back or takes mount. Shitty women fight IQ is a consern for me. Poliana is going to throw a naked kick, like she always do, Calvillo catches it and it is a mess from then on. Even if Calvillo could not take her one time down, who is to say she does not win a sloppy kickboxing fight? Poliana is a mess on the defence, I dare to say a thrash. And she is too easily pinned to the fence. This fight could go either way, this is a fight to stay away for beting! And what if Calvillo looked like she was about to die on the scale? Come one, didn't we learn the lesson with the scale thing. This is not mean anything. All fighters look bad when dehydrated. Some worse than others. When they put back the liquids in their body they are fine. She could lose this fight of course but I won't solely because of the cutting weight issue. I can give you a lot of examples of fighters look bad on the scales and win. Jimmy Rivera comes to mind. He was in very rough shape vs Almeida on the scales and won.
This is all sounds very good, except it has little to do with what we've seen on tape from either fighter:
-Calvillo doesn't shoot single legs at all, and while it might have happened exactly once, she very, very rarely catches kicks. (It didn't happen a single time against Calderwood, who threw many naked, lazy ones)
Instead, most of her takedowns are trips (like many fighters with a BJJ base for grappling), and against Robertson, she got a double from a clinch.
I don't know how you extrapolate that to any success against Botelho, who is a flat-out better wrestler (with an actual shot, and a competent double at that, especially by female standards), much bigger and stronger, and wasn't taken down a single time by common opponent Pearl Gonzales, despite Pearl out-muscling and taking Calvillo down several times during the first two rounds.
-One accurate thing you said is that Botelho's striking defense probably sucks. It certainly did back in 2014 and 2015, the last times we saw her being hit cleanly in the face. Not surprising either considering she started training in 2013.
However, this isn't much of an issue against Calvillo, who isn't knocking her out or hurting her, anyways. The only issue is if Botelho can catch Calvillo.
-To that extent, Calvillo looking so depleted yesterday morning is a big deal. How likely is she to do a beautiful job moving around the cage for 3 rounds in row, beating Botelho to the punch, and avoiding a slew of crushing right hands and kicks to her legs and body if her body is so ravaged?
Pretty unlikely. At -165, I will take that chance.