UFC on Fox 31 Iaquinta vs Lee II

MMAFORTUNETELLER said:
What would you guys say is the consensus play for this weekend is after we all put our brains together to make some money and clean these books out !!!????
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I don't think we have a good circle jerk going for this one yet.
 
MMAFORTUNETELLER said:
What would you guys say is the consensus play for this weekend is after we all put our brains together to make some money and clean these books out !!!????
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I see here a kind of consensus behind; Font, Cummings and KGB

The only negatieve prediction against cummings that i have see so far is "The big concern here is Smith’s willingness to wade through punches and back Zak to the cage where he will grind on him and potentially land takedowns. Cummings doesn’t have the overwhelming volume to make up for Smith’s positional control. Trevor will utilize his size and get the better of Cummings early, grinding his way to lead on the cards and holding on late"
 
Rasdun said:
Pettis v. Font screams close fight/ split decision to me. Pettis is only 25 and had been improving over his past few fights. He's showed a good chin over the past few years. I think a little too much stock has been placed in the Jussier loss. I'll take Pettis at +150 for 1 u for value as I cap this 50/50
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I think Pettis will struggle with the size thing and Font is pretty diverse. Font puts things together in combination. I personally don't see Pettis having the creativity to get to Font from range. He may be able to get something done on the counter but I doubt it. I expect Font to also mix in some takedowns which will create some doubt in Pettis also. I cap Font around -250
 
Sadistics said:
He wasn't out cold, he was gassed bad due to a staph infection and just covered up
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He was gassed at the end of the first round lol. Dirty ass mother fucker came in with staph and got smoked. Tony beats that clown 10/10 times, he’s too skilled, too technical, and has far more weapons than Lee. Only thing Kevin Lee can offer in a fight is a solid rear leg body kick, a double leg, and strong top position. Other than that, the guy will break.
 
kevinramsdell said:
He was gassed at the end of the first round lol. Dirty ass mother fucker came in with staph and got smoked. Tony beats that clown 10/10 times, he’s too skilled, too technical, and has far more weapons than Lee. Only thing Kevin Lee can offer in a fight is a solid rear leg body kick, a double leg, and strong top position. Other than that, the guy will break.
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What are you talking about? they were discussing Ottow, not Lee
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
It is ridiculous to say Benavidez is an OK striker and Font is high level

I mean Benavidez just demolished Alex Perez with his striking
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Benavidez is more explosive but hes small. He's faster than Font and trickier but he has to come forward in bursts. Pettis could hang back and counter. In this one Font is bringing length. Pettis counter game won't be as effective even though I do agree that Benavidez is probably a better striker than Font. It's a style thing. And a size thing.
 
Sadistics said:
He wasn't out cold, he was gassed bad due to a staph infection and just covered up
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His entire body went limp during the finishing sequence, the ref saw it and waved it off.

Watch it again, clearly the case of a guy that was legitimately KO'ed. The Leech finished him off in one round as well, I don't think the guy is very durable, period. That's my feeling on him after watching several of his fights.

Sage is not a knockout artist, not at 155 and especially not at 170. Dwight is a huge dude with legit thunder in both fists. All it takes is one when you've got a really good puncher against a guy with mild durability and gas.
 
Not sure how you can argue he was out when he clearly wasn't.
 
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Does this suffice?

Verdict: not KO'd. Also, we got to look at frosted tip Sage in bulk!
 
Looking to parlay probably three fights to end inside the distance, I usually try to do this and have had decent luck with it so far... Usually I try to reduce the juice on big favorites by playing them in the distance with other fighters I favor, basically fading fighters who have been knocked our before, or ones that have chin or defense issues. Rocha to me is like a lamb being led to the slaughter here. The way that guy bleeds at the merest touch and the way Juan beats the shit outta people... Not to even mention the fact that Rocha is 40, with no head movement and a pitiful gas tank.

Currently I have Juan to stop the block headed Rocha and Dwight to stop the chinny Ottow at -330 and -185 respectively. That parlayed it even money. I'm pretty damn confident both of those fights are going to look more like muggings than professional MMA bouts... Rocha has gone down in like 50 seconds against that fat polish heavy that UFC cut and Zak was just put out by hammerfists from Sage Northcutt, lol....

I do need a third leg of the parlay, though.

Anyone have any opinions?
 
I'm not so sure Miller-Oliveira ends ITD. Miller has had 40 fights, fought a lot of dangerous fighters and only been knocked out twice. It took Hookers signature knee and Cerrones signature head kick, the guy is super tough. Then hes only been submitted twice, by Chiesas RNC and Nate Diazs guillotine after getting beat up first. I see a few ways he can finish Oliveira though, his guillotine, some other submission, his left hand and Oliveiras lack of heart. Oliveira striking used to have promise but it seems he stopped trying to develop that part of his game. I thnk Oliveira is going to have to lock up a full guillotine, if he wants a finish and do it before Miller breaks his spirit. I had to take Miller at +260.

I'm starting to regret my play on Meerschaert. I know hes taken Santos down a few times but his wrestling is just not good, he has that body kick but his punching and overall striking is not good. He relies on his opponents making mistakes and he jumps on those opportunities. Hermanssons footwork will make him hard to find for a strike or a takedown, his volume will make it hard to take rounds and his BJJ/GNP is good enough to be a threat on the ground should it go there. Hermanssons heart and will to win cannot be overstated either whereas I've seen Meerschaert turtle up on multiple occasions. I feel Meerschaerts best chance is catching a guillotine off a sloppy takedown(if Hermansson even tries for a takedown), Meerschaert is very good at front chokes and he doesnt need guard to finish.
 
Main event fighters are both good, don't think it ends early. Added to the other totals I already mentioned: Al Iaquinta/Kevin Lee Over 2½ -105
 
Soccer Steve said:
Some have already said, and I agree, the Miller-Bronx fight likely ends before the bell.
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Yes, but with Olivera's penchant for spontaneously folding would you try to play the parlay both ways or would you pick Charles? I really feel like the first two legs, that bring it to evens, are real solid picks.
 
Props of the card: Jim Miller recovered from Lyme disease and looking good last fight vs dangerous submission fighter but known quitter Charles Oliveira. If Do Bronx doesn't get that first round submission he always looks for, then expect New Jersey's finest Jim Miller to turn it around and finish Oliveira by KO or submission: Jim Miller ITD +426, Jim Miller in round 2 +1025 and Jim Miller in round 3 +1700.
 
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