UFC 232 Jones vs Gustafsson II

Vir_Ars said:
I think so too, I dont see why BJ penn cant take Hall in the ground when him voluntary go to it and made a nasty GnP, Hall dont like to take damage, I Think that he posible can tap out just for strikes. I see hall going to the ground when Penn close distance and BJ making a nasty GnP, or at least, I want to believe.
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Maybe, if it goes to the ground it'll be either Penn dropping into his guard if/when Hall flops to his back or Hall taking Penn down. I don't think Penn will be shooting takedowns; looking at fightmetric to back this up since I've tried to scrub any Penn fights since 2011 from my memory, but the last time he shot a takedown was against Rory, and he didn't get any then. That was 6 years ago and a version of BJ that would maul todays Penn. Even in his fight against Yair he didn't attempt any takedowns and he was getting decimated on the feet.

It may be different this time around as he won't have to waste energy getting his opponent to the ground since Hall will likely flop to his back, though he may still be content to just spam rubbish kicks on the feet to coast to a decision.

Realistically, the best way this fight would go is if Hall comes out forcing takedowns or Penn obliges and jumps into Halls guard. Generally between high level grapplers you'll get awful striking matches and these are both at that level where it'll likely be a worse striking match than you'd usually see. If they come out and are happy grappling with each other for the majority of the fight we could be in for entertainment in what's probably expected to be the worst fight on the card.

I think more than likely Hall kicks his way to a rubbish decision but I guess the one thing I'd say is if you see it taking place on the ground, I think it only happens if Hall gets a takedown or BJ follows him into his guard when he flops, I'd be really surprised if Penn works for takedowns to get it on the mat.
 
Am I really going to be the only one on Megan Anderson ITD at +470?

Zingano is not as fleet of foot, as athletic or dare I say even as fresh as Holly Holm, who used her footwork to defuse the sporadic offense of Anderson, and wrestle fucked her the rest of the time. Holm was still briefly hurt in the first by Megan and was safety first the entire bout. I don't think Zingano at 145 has the gas to keep Anderson down for 3 rounds, or the footwork to defuse her offense.

I don't like how Zingano reacts to punches anymore, she looked badly hurt/shook by Marion's light punches. Anderson might be a limited fighter but she punches, and kicks, like a dude. She hits hard, and clearly fucks up the girls she hits.
 
Dooze said:
Maybe, if it goes to the ground it'll be either Penn dropping into his guard if/when Hall flops to his back or Hall taking Penn down. I don't think Penn will be shooting takedowns; looking at fightmetric to back this up since I've tried to scrub any Penn fights since 2011 from my memory, but the last time he shot a takedown was against Rory, and he didn't get any then. That was 6 years ago and a version of BJ that would maul todays Penn. Even in his fight against Yair he didn't attempt any takedowns and he was getting decimated on the feet.

It may be different this time around as he won't have to waste energy getting his opponent to the ground since Hall will likely flop to his back, though he may still be content to just spam rubbish kicks on the feet to coast to a decision.

Realistically, the best way this fight would go is if Hall comes out forcing takedowns or Penn obliges and jumps into Halls guard. Generally between high level grapplers you'll get awful striking matches and these are both at that level where it'll likely be a worse striking match than you'd usually see. If they come out and are happy grappling with each other for the majority of the fight we could be in for entertainment in what's probably expected to be the worst fight on the card.

I think more than likely Hall kicks his way to a rubbish decision but I guess the one thing I'd say is if you see it taking place on the ground, I think it only happens if Hall gets a takedown or BJ follows him into his guard when he flops, I'd be really surprised if Penn works for takedowns to get it on the mat.
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This is what i mean " BJ follows him into his guard when he flops" BJ dont have to go for TD, Hall go there voluntary, just jump into his guard, I think that BJ is good enough to avoid making mistakes that lead to SUB while making some GnP.
 
Not understanding this Hall line at all.

I don't know much about his opponent but looking at the records of the guys he's fought, out of them all he's the most experienced on 6 fights and the opponents were nobodies. He might be unbeaten and turn out to be a stud but 3 of those wins were by decision and one of his stoppages was in the 3rd round so through some lazy wiki capping I'm assuming he's not carrying a lot of 1 shot KO power.

Hall's had a tough run but he's mostly been facing elite fighters win or lose. Obviously it was 7 years ago and an amateur fight but Lewis got stopped within about 20 seconds from an absolutely nothing shot which has to be a concern given Hall is an accurate striker and does carry power.

Lewis seems to have been made a favourite over a solid gatekeeper in Hall seemingly purely because he trains with Jon Jones but although that can help improve you it doesn't make you an elite fighter, just somebody training with one.

Hall as an underdog against an unproven inexperienced fighter who has gone 6-0 by beating people less experienced than himself? I'll take that. Even if he loses, based off of everything available in terms of years of watching Hall fight and knowing his flaws versus an unproven hype based on who Lewis' training partner is I'd take that bet every time.
 
LiquidNuke said:
Am I really going to be the only one on Megan Anderson ITD at +470?
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Equally Zingano should be able to get easy takedowns and maul Anderson on the ground. Most people are just playing the under as a result rather than ITD on either side.
 
Jordan3399 said:
Equally Zingano should be able to get easy takedowns and maul Anderson on the ground. Most people are just playing the under as a result rather than ITD on either side.
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I agree, but at almost 5 to 1 it's pretty juicy. Just putting it out there.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
My thinking is you generally beat GOAT's by decision.
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Completely depends on the match up. Even P4P Greats have holes its whether they lose over 5 rounds or they get finished. Aldo was a great fighter but it only took 1 perfect punch to end his run. Equally for all his greatness DJ never had great TDD like other greats such as GSP and Jones did so lost a decision. We've seen Jones lose almost 3 times now and 2 of those would of been stoppages; Vitors armbar was ridiculously close, 27 seconds more and Chael would of won by Doctor stoppage and then finally Gus exploiting his boxing.

I agree Jones if he should lose it'll be by decision, Gus just isn't a great finisher let alone vs a guy like Jones.
 
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LiquidNuke said:
Am I really going to be the only one on Megan Anderson ITD at +470?
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No, as mentioned I have Anderson by TKO/KO at +500 at 1.5u in conjunction with Zingano at -140 for 4u. So yeah, good bet, but not sure why you went for ITD instead of KO/TKO unless your sportsbook doesn't offer the latter.

LiquidNuke said:
I don't like how Zingano reacts to punches anymore, she looked badly hurt/shook by Marion's light punches.
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Your overall point is correct, but I should note that Marion Reneau's punches are far from "light". She actually has among the very best striking in all of WMMA. Unfortunately, she also has among the worst takedown defense.

LiquidNuke said:
Anderson might be a limited fighter but she punches, and kicks, like a dude. She hits hard, and clearly fucks up the girls she hits.
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I wouldn't go that far, either. Anderson relies on an accumulation of flush strikes over an extended period of time. She has power, but nowhere near that of a Cyborg. She hits harder than an Arlene Blencowe or Julia Budd, but is closer to them than Cyborg.

Also, her kicks, especially to the legs, suck.
 
LiquidNuke said:
As incompetent as both currently are as fighters this might sound like a weird and counter intuitive play but I can't help but think Fight doesn't go to decision +155 for the Penn/Hall fight just might hit...

So much frailty and vulnerability on both sides, it just seems like a fight that's going to be completely dominated by one guy or the other. And even at 40 you can't forget that there's the old cliche of old boxers still being able to punch. It's the last asset a fighter loses, power. Same thing applies to MMA guys from my experience. If Penn does win it's likely he taps that frail Hall mandible.
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I think you're reading into Hall's style, personality and apperance and reading 'frailty' into that. There is a literal 0% chance that BJ penn finishes Hall. Hall has never been finished in a fight, has shown a good chin and very damage averse style and Penns power and stamina is finished. You might as well just take Hall by Sub if you think the fight doesn't go the distance and get better odds.
 
thesharktank said:
I think you're reading into Hall's style, personality and apperance and reading 'frailty' into that. There is a literal 0% chance that BJ penn finishes Hall. Hall has never been finished in a fight, has shown a good chin and very damage averse style and Penns power and stamina is finished. You might as well just take Hall by Sub if you think the fight doesn't go the distance and get better odds.
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That's actually exactly what I settled on doing. Hall by sub is my play.
 
Okay this is hands down one of the greatest pseudo-arbitrage opportunities I have ever come across. I would bet more but I have maxed out my account.

lewis.JPG

Let's look at the possibilities here:

Lewis finish or decision = Push
Hall finish = lose 3
Hall dominant decision = lose 3
Hall close decision = win 31.5
Draw = Win 15

This is an even odds fight as is. A Hall close decision is a definite possibility. Hall wins by decision is +400 on 5dimes currently. This is paying +1000 with any Lewis win being a push!
 
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cocomilk said:
draw = push
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No, a draw would almost certainly cash the +3.5 points bet, whereas the straight bet is a push. Hence, win 15. See below. Frevola +3.5 points cashed in his draw against Vannata.

frevola.jpg

The whole point of my bet is if Hall wins 29-28 across the board, the +3.5 Lewis and the Hall straight bets cash. What makes you think +3.5 wouldn't cash on a draw? (Unless the draw was like a majority draw 28-28, 28-28, 30-26, which would arguably not cash, since it would still be a deficit of 4 points.)
 
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EndlessCritic said:
No, a draw would almost certainly cash the +3.5 points bet, whereas the straight bet is a push. Hence, win 15. See below. Frevola +3.5 points cashed in his draw against Vannata.

View attachment 495919

The whole point of my bet is if Hall wins 29-28 across the board, the +3.5 Lewis and the Hall straight bets cash. What makes you think +3.5 wouldn't cash on a draw? (Unless the draw was like a majority draw 28-28, 28-28, 30-26, which would arguably not cash, since it would still be a deficit of 4 points.)
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Re-read what you just said.
 
I'm betting Siyar ML and if he wins I'll put it all on Cyborg

Goodluck amigos
 
edole said:
I'm betting Siyar ML and if he wins I'll put it all on Cyborg

Goodluck amigos
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Siyar seems slower than he used to be... and the guy is super crude, winging punches with his hands down and his chin out there.

A bad idea against a much superior and larger athlete with one hitter quitter knees and feet.
 
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