Agree about Al hassan. This is one of those fights where you we have a perfect ptv and perfect lose condition. Buckley has no chin and Alhassan is a KO monster. Used to be a -300 fav until finally the hype died down and now he´s in the medium dog territory and underrated. In his last fight I think we saw a rejuvenated Al hassan and Buckley is always live to be KO´ed, he´s a bit of a kill or be killed type of guy and thas bad news vs a guy like Al hassan.
If we take a look at Al hassan´s losses he lost to Khaos Williams, and in hindsight that is no shame. Khaos has been underrated by so many ever since his first fight vs Morono where he KO´ed him in around 30 seconds. He´s clearly taking this very seriously, and has upped his game, also beating Semelsberger and lately Baeza.
Malkoun grinded and wrestled the entire fight and did a great job simply overwhelming Al hassan ala what Belal just did to Wonderboy. I don´t think that fight at all has anything to do with this fight vs Buckley - yet the line has surely been affected by that loss aswell.
At +130 all the value lies on Al hassan, and if you bet Buckley you will bet on Buckley having a perfect fight - but he gets hit and who has he really beaten? Arroyo was a good fight, but a fight like that vs Al hassan is a bad idea, and would likely result in Buckley getting KO´ed in round 1.
ALC would likely be the same result here with Buckley KO´ed fast. While the fight vs Wright is an okay win, then Wright is all offense and I think far worse than Al hassan.
Impa was a legit win but I doubt we´ll see anything like that spectacular again.
These odds are way off, and I don´t see any value whatsoever on Buckley. Al hassan will either look like a hindsight huge fav or looked washed - but as said i don´t think his losses shows any of that.
An X factor: Back in 2018 Alhassan was accused of rape...He broke silence around march 2020
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020...ssan-breaks-silence-sexual-assault-not-guilty
Now if you read this you can sense how much frustration he had, he wanted to fight so badly. And I think this has severely affected him mentally in his fights...now its been a while ago - and I think his last fight showed he is back to where his potential were all along. He´s the Al hassan that was meant to be in the UFC. No wonder that when he got accused back in 2018 it affected him when he came back to fighting no matter how eager he was, and when he came back it was in the UFC, way tougher than earlier. But now I think he finally has found himself again, and as said his last 2 losses are perfectly acceptable.
And if we want to do mma math he did beat ALC who beat Buckley. But I dont put any stock into math like that.
In conclusion Al hassan should be around -150. And the lines should be switched. I´m quite big on Al hassan here. Made me skip christmas break to get this work in.