UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze

Liking Alhassan against Buckley. Both guys can be KO'd, but I think Alhassan is both the more durable guy and the one to pull the trigger earlier. Joaquin also had a tougher time than he should've with someone as bad as Arroyo.

Bontorin seems like a decent dog to back as well, not really understanding the line for Royval here, I expect Rogerio's BJJ will be able to nullify whatever offense Brandon might have off his back, stand up might be a different matter, but Rogerio shouldn't be out of sorts there either.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Liking Alhassan against Buckley. Both guys can be KO'd, but I think Alhassan is both the more durable guy and the one to pull the trigger earlier. Joaquin also had a tougher time than he should've with someone as bad as Arroyo.

Bontorin seems like a decent dog to back as well, not really understanding the line for Royval here, I expect Rogerio's BJJ will be able to nullify whatever offense Brandon might have off his back, stand up might be a different matter, but Rogerio shouldn't be out of sorts there either.
Click to expand...
funny those are your two opinions, mine are almost exactly the same and those are the first 2 fights I taped haha
 
The odds of the main event are influnced by the last performances of both fighters. Like with Lewis vs. Daukaus. Kattar comes from the worst beating he took in his career, and Giga from his best performance so far. I don't like Kattar's fighting style at all. He's mostly a power counter-puncher boxing guy with no other layer to his game (from what I've seen so far in the UFC). Can't cut the octagon to save his life, defense is... meh and becomes almost abysmal when forced to go back. His athleticism and chin are enough to cover up the flaws in his game, but vs. craftier guys we see where the holes are very clearly.

I don't like that his first fight, after the beatdown he took from Max, is another main event and also is not exactly "get your confidence back and get back to your feet" match-up. But there's clear as day paths for him here vs. Giga. Calvin's just faster and cleaner with his boxing. Giga's dropping and dragging his hands every time he punches and that's no good vs. a powerful counter puncher like Calvin. That is 1st. 2nd: He has a better cardio - he's been in hard 3 and 5 round fights without slowing down. I don't think Chikadze can compete there with him, if this goes past the 3rd round it's all Calvin IMO. I'm not remembering seeing Calvin wrestle, but if he's smart there's a path also. I know he's a terrific TD defender, maybe he can do it offensively too, I dunno. Chikadze is improving his TDD, but it's still a liability and if he shows any sign of fatigue it's gonna be even worse.
I rewatched small amout of tape for this fight, so maybe if I watch more I'll change my mind, but so far I think the odds are an overcorrection cause of these guys' last fights. Think that Kattar should be the favourite. How big of a favourite, I don't know, but him as a good sized underdog isn't making much sense to me.
I'm open for debate.
 
Last edited:
I think Chikadeze technique is shit, and Im very surprised about his recent success.
 
I don't particularly rate Chase Sherman but probably think less of Collier who is essentially a MW who can't be bothered eating clean/exercising and now looks like he posts on reddit.

Sherman at least is a legit HW. I imagine it's going to be mostly a stand-up affair, Sherman doesn't have too terrible a chin remember him having alright hands and low kicks - he's not going to be fighting in K1 anytime soon but it's serviceable for low level UFC fights which this is. Collier doesn't really have any power, main concern would be him outpointing Sherman but as a small underdog I'll take that risk given Sherman has the much bigger KO threat and probably at worst a coin flip chance in terms of winning enough of a striking battle for a decision.

Not too sure why Collier is a slight favourite really.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
The odds of the main event are influnced by the last performances of both fighters. Like with Lewis vs. Daukaus. Kattar comes from the worst beating he took in his career, and Giga from his best performance so far. I don't like Kattar's fighting style at all. He's mostly a power counter-puncher boxing guy with no other layer to his game (from what I've seen so far in the UFC). Can't cut the octagon to save his life, defense is... meh and becomes almost abysmal when forced to go back. His athleticism and chin are enough to cover up the flaws in his game, but vs. craftier guys we see where the holes are very clearly.

I don't like that his first fight, after the beatdown he took from Max, is another main event and also is not exactly "get your confidence back and get back to your feet" match-up. But there's clear as day paths for him here vs. Giga. Calvin's just faster and cleaner with his boxing. Giga's dropping and dragging his hands every time he punches and that's no good vs. a powerful counter puncher like Calvin. That is 1st. 2nd: He has a better cardio - he's been in hard 3 and 5 round fights without slowing down. I don't think Chikadze can compete there with him, if this goes past the 3rd round it's all Calvin IMO. I'm not remembering seeing Calvin wrestle, but if he's smart there's a path also. I know he's a terrific TD defender, maybe he can do it offensively too, I dunno. Chikadze is improving his TDD, but it's still a liability and if he shows any sign of fatigue it's gonna be even worse.
I rewatched small amout of tape for this fight, so maybe if I watch more I'll change my mind, but so far I think the odds are an overcorrection cause of these guys' last fights. Think that Kattar should be the favourite. How big of a favourite, I don't know, but him as a good sized underdog isn't making much sense to me.
I'm open for debate.
Click to expand...

Damn man I disagreed with you on both Oliveira vs Poirier and Daukaus vs Lewis and you were completely right both times. I was liking Chikadze but now you're leaning the other way again ahaha. Maybe this time I'll give listening to you a try.
 
Agree about Al hassan. This is one of those fights where you we have a perfect ptv and perfect lose condition. Buckley has no chin and Alhassan is a KO monster. Used to be a -300 fav until finally the hype died down and now he´s in the medium dog territory and underrated. In his last fight I think we saw a rejuvenated Al hassan and Buckley is always live to be KO´ed, he´s a bit of a kill or be killed type of guy and thas bad news vs a guy like Al hassan.

If we take a look at Al hassan´s losses he lost to Khaos Williams, and in hindsight that is no shame. Khaos has been underrated by so many ever since his first fight vs Morono where he KO´ed him in around 30 seconds. He´s clearly taking this very seriously, and has upped his game, also beating Semelsberger and lately Baeza.
Malkoun grinded and wrestled the entire fight and did a great job simply overwhelming Al hassan ala what Belal just did to Wonderboy. I don´t think that fight at all has anything to do with this fight vs Buckley - yet the line has surely been affected by that loss aswell.

At +130 all the value lies on Al hassan, and if you bet Buckley you will bet on Buckley having a perfect fight - but he gets hit and who has he really beaten? Arroyo was a good fight, but a fight like that vs Al hassan is a bad idea, and would likely result in Buckley getting KO´ed in round 1.
ALC would likely be the same result here with Buckley KO´ed fast. While the fight vs Wright is an okay win, then Wright is all offense and I think far worse than Al hassan.
Impa was a legit win but I doubt we´ll see anything like that spectacular again.

These odds are way off, and I don´t see any value whatsoever on Buckley. Al hassan will either look like a hindsight huge fav or looked washed - but as said i don´t think his losses shows any of that.

An X factor: Back in 2018 Alhassan was accused of rape...He broke silence around march 2020
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2020...ssan-breaks-silence-sexual-assault-not-guilty

Now if you read this you can sense how much frustration he had, he wanted to fight so badly. And I think this has severely affected him mentally in his fights...now its been a while ago - and I think his last fight showed he is back to where his potential were all along. He´s the Al hassan that was meant to be in the UFC. No wonder that when he got accused back in 2018 it affected him when he came back to fighting no matter how eager he was, and when he came back it was in the UFC, way tougher than earlier. But now I think he finally has found himself again, and as said his last 2 losses are perfectly acceptable.

And if we want to do mma math he did beat ALC who beat Buckley. But I dont put any stock into math like that.

In conclusion Al hassan should be around -150. And the lines should be switched. I´m quite big on Al hassan here. Made me skip christmas break to get this work in.
 
When I'm fading Giga I'd ideally like a fighter with wrestling/grappling upside since that's where I think he's weakest at. I don't really see the appeal of picking a straight up striker who only throws punches and is coming off a legitimate life-altering beating. Meh.

AlHassan looked noticeable more juiced physically in his last fight, and it showed with his vintage round 1 performance. Now that he's finally found the correct supplements to avoid Usada with and look his old self, I can finally start betting on him again. Buckley is going to get buckled.
 
Kattar at + is amazing. Crazy durable, crazy cardio, great hands. I think he’ll get a late finish when Giga starts to slow down. Look to live bet after round 1 since Kattar starts slow and Giga starts fast.

Liking Salihkov at + too, calm technical smart striker that should be able to beat Pereira.
 
IswearIkeepmyhandsup said:
Kattar at + is amazing. Crazy durable, crazy cardio, great hands. I think he’ll get a late finish when Giga starts to slow down. Look to live bet after round 1 since Kattar starts slow and Giga starts fast.

Liking Salihkov at + too, calm technical smart striker that should be able to beat Pereira.
Click to expand...
I personally think Pereira mixing takedowns will flummox Muslim, real possibility for a late sub from Michel as well.
 
I'll need to do more tape watching, but my initial pick is Giga over Kattar.
Kattar has a rough path to victory in this one. He has to weather 2-3 rounds of Giga kicking his legs and liver to pieces. (or dropping his hands to guard the body and eating some heavy leather to the face). At that point, he has to hope that he has enough in the tank/hasn't taken too much damage, and hope that he can find some major openings/win rounds/get a stoppage.

Also, since Kattar is more of a counter striker then the pace will likely be set by Giga anyway. Which means he can control his cardio/pace anyway, which means he'll be less likely to gas.

X-Factors could be if Giga is overconfident and fights stupid, or if Kattar has made major improvements since his last fight.
Otherwise I think Giga is the rightful favorite in this one.
 
At first glance I like:
1. Vieira over Turman - Rodolfo gas tank looked much better against Stoltzfus. His striking was nice too but we know that grappling is his cup of tea. I just can't see Wellington being able to defend his sub attempts. Turman's PTV is to gas Vieira and probably finish him but I think Rodolfo learned a lot from the Fluffy debacle and will fight smart.

2. Maddalena over Alves - I think boisss will bang and Jack is the younger and much less worn striker. He looked very impressive in his DWCS fight and I'm seeing him doing the same to Warlley what Wells did.

3. Topuria over Evloev - I'm seeing Ilia as a future champ or at least top 5 guy. Movsar was being close to getting submitted by crooked Nik Lentz in his retirement fight. I see Topuria having striking, grappling, power and cardio advantage. Overall, I rate him as a better fighter than Evloev. Let's go El Matador.

4. Moreno over Figueiredo - Deiveson weight cut is always an issue. Just based on that Brandon should be a decent favorite. Moreno at 28 is hitting his prime and I thought he could even win the first fight. Winning the belt in so dominant fashion only builds his confidence and I think he can repeat the success from the second fight. Even if he won't finish Figueiredo I can see him being much more active, aggressive and clearly winning at least 3 rounds on the judges scorecards.

5. Gane over Ngannou - For some time I wasn't riding his hype train. I thought he needed to test himself first, so I can get behind him. In my eyes he passed all the tests with flying colors. I think his movement will be too much for Francis. He will dance around him and pick him apart. His striking is much better, his grappling is better and his cardio is much better. He already dominated two of the hardest hitters in the UFC HW division in Rozenstruik and Lewis. Ngannou's only chance is to catch him with something but I think Cyril will manage to avoid the most dangerous strikes.
 
I dunno guys I think Giga is going to run through Kattar.

All Kattar has is his hands but Giga will keep the fight at kicking range and he has much more upside IMO I don't see how Kattar looks anything but worse in terms of speed, durability, reflexes and even cardio after the life altering beating he took from Max...
 
KingRyan said:
I dunno guys I think Giga is going to run through Kattar.

All Kattar has is his hands but Giga will keep the fight at kicking range and he has much more upside IMO I don't see how Kattar looks anything but worse in terms of speed, durability, reflexes and even cardio after the life altering beating he took from Max...
Click to expand...
"Run through Kattar" is a bold prediction. We've seen fighters who took the appropriate time off and come back being as good as before, if not better. This is especially true for athletic guys with lots of cardio. He's still young too. I'll watch his new interviews and look for slurred speech or something wrong, just in case.

About the "kicking range". If you don't move, your kicks become more of a liability than an asset. The two kickers who flummoxed Kattar had very good movement - Moicano and Zabit. And the key to their success was that they threw mostly non-commital kicks. Light enough to not off balance themselves too much and to not get tired throwing them for 15 minutes. Giga is kicking with power. I don't think he can afford this kind of load on his cardio past the 3rd round. His lateral movement is rather poor. He's not that light on his feet. Edson, who is not at all a pressure fighter, was able to make Giga fight behind the black lines for some significant time. (I'll admit it was the small octagon, so it was easier for Edson) And it's not like he pressured him with punches or anything like that, he just walked forward. Giga's answer to get off the fence was to brawl. Not a good look.

To not turn this into TL;DR I will end it with this: I always cringe when people are happy to pay juice and bet against a young (relatively young in the case of Kattar) and talented guy who comes from a bad loss. Old folks, like Stephen Thompson, rarely can get anymore better than they already are, even if they commit themselves. It's just the nature of these things. If you're still fresh, hungry and you just have the raw talent, a bad loss combined with time off the sport in most cases results in improvements, not regression.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,195
Messages
55,474,878
Members
174,787
Latest member
Biden's Diaper

Share this page

Back
Top