Russia/Ukraine Megathread V6

[SandisLL]

If about importance how much guys you have in modern war...

Imagine for example 100 conscripts trained 6 months and armed with RPGs, РПК , АКМ-74.
vs...
2-3 guys with Grad type launcher?
Grad type lauchers does have 16-20-40 tubes with 122 mm unguided missiles...
Range till 20 000 meters and more....
Press few buttons and ........hell will come.

 

[San Marino]

Diamond argues that the gaps in power and technology between human societies originate primarily in environmental differences. Diamond argues that Eurasian civilization is not so much a product of ingenuity, but of opportunity and necessity. That is, civilization is not created out of superior intelligence, but is the result of a chain of developments, each made possible by certain preconditions. -- In the US it was the influence of oil, steel, and railroad.

Where did Russia go wrong prior to 1917? It had the same resources the United States had.

Why Was Russia Considered Backward in the Early 19th Century? - GCSE History - Marked by Teachers.com
"Russia was very obviously different to countries such as France, Britain and America. This was partly due to their hold onto tradition and wanting to keep their culture rather than changing completely to Western ideals. However, they could still have kept aspects of their culture and took on some of the things that made other countries modern such as the railways. Had they made some changes it would have helped their politics, economy and society, but those in power were comfortable and felt no need to help all their people so in this sense Russia was very backward. -- Russia was agriculturally based as there were no towns therefore no working class so there could not be a revolution such as in France or America."

Vladimir Putin could have saved Russia from its current situation during his almost 20 years in power. Most of his economic, industrial, and energy policies were sound, but he was not quite the right guy for the job. The government suffered from major corruption. The same problems that Brazil, India, and China had, hence the BRIC alliance: Brazil, Russia, India and China. India and China having fared much better.

Since the Ukraine invasion in February, Putin has now destroyed any possibility of Russia improving its standing with the west. It has set in motion the decline of its economy. It has revealed all its weaknesses. Something many western countries were surprised by. Whatever grandiose ideas Putin had for Russia are now gone. Whatever happens in Ukraine, victory or loss, Russia has drastically dropped in world standing and will remain there for years to come. A standing that keeps getting closer and closer to North Korea.

Had Emperor Nicholas II had better foresight prior to 1917, we would not be in this mess.

 

[SandisLL]

Nicolas II?
I think he as person was good chap.

He even managed Russia to get constant economic improvement 1907-1914 in row and real, not like Putin.
Highest problems he had were: money hungry idiots wild capitalists with robbers mentality and social class system.
Where you cos your parents origin had been placed in cast...
Despite fact are you professor in Uni or local alcoholic- gambler...
Imagine this reality Empire had ..

 

[moreorless87]

Really I suspect the key decision going forward will be what happens when/if Putin decides to draw a line on his control in Ukraine?

 

[SandisLL]

I might bring something to compare with modern days...
If Nicolas II had promised something in conversation, this was more worth than anything signed with ppl observing process by Stalin, not alone to compare with later leaders.
Btw even Lenin respected contracts more than anyone else after him... Yeah.

 

[skysolo]

So the United States are offering to give people enemas now? Gross.



Thousands of people were trying to take a dump when a railroad station was hit by rockets in Donetsk.

 

[Cole train]

So the United States are offering to give people enemas now? Gross.

If i remember correctly there were rumours or news of spec ops being on stand by to get zelenskiy out (sas i remember being mentioned)

Btw heres times article that tells story of first weeks and battle at presidential hall when russian spec ops tried to capture him.

Was not far that war would have played differently

https://time.com/6171277/volodymyr-zelensky-interview-ukraine-war/

Ukraines film.industry will have lots of material after this conflict

 

[SandisLL]

Zelensky?
Anyway...
Russia just should had to wait till next elections.
Rulers in Ukraine never stand for long term and there was 0 hope that Ukraine might be in NATO or EU during next 3 years with 0 doubts here...Most likely NO even if 7 years under Zelenski had happened.

Despite clickbait articles itn mass media.

 

[lsa]

 

[moreorless87]

Zelensky?
Anyway...
Russia just should had to wait till next elections.
Rulers in Ukraine never stand for long term and there was 0 hope that Ukraine might be in NATO or EU during next 3 years with 0 doubts here...Most likely NO even if 7 years under Zelenski had happened.

Despite clickbait articles itn mass media.

I suspect really though one of the big drivers behind this invasion was that Putin considered the idea of power swapping back and forth between pro and anti Russian politicans was over.

 

[Yotsuya]

Really I suspect the key decision going forward will be what happens when/if Putin decides to draw a line on his control in Ukraine?

I doubt he's in position to draw any lines. Russian troops had bad morale to begin with and they have been eating shit since the war begun. The brutally beaten troops from the north were just integrated into other units in east with stories about losses of 50%+ once the Ukrainians got rolling. I really don't see Russians sitting out hard artillery barrages like Ukrainians have. If Ukrainians centralise the 100-150 Howitzers provided by the west and start pounding Russian lines in around Kherson and Kharkiv they will not hold. The troops in cities have option to get surrounded or back away. (<- 110% dilettante take.)

 

[moreorless87]

I doubt he's in position to draw any lines. Russian troops had bad morale to begin with and they have been eating shit since the war begun. The brutally beaten troops from the north were just integrated into other units in east with stories about losses of 50%+ once the Ukrainians got rolling. I really don't see Russians sitting out hard artillery barrages like Ukrainians have. If Ukrainians centralise the 100-150 Howitzers provided by the west and start pounding Russian lines in around Kherson and Kharkiv they will not hold. The troops in cities have option to get surrounded or back away. (<- 110% dilettante take.)

Honestly the position in terms of "winning" a conflict i really don't know as its tough to get past the infomation war, I'm talking more the moral position. If say Putin were to gain a bit more territory in the east and then declare some kind of extended Donbass Republic, haunt his advances what would be the moral position then? would it be to try and retake all Russian held areas and maybe even the Crimera? would it be to agree to a ceasefire and negotiate?

 

[Yotsuya]

Honestly the position in terms of "winning" a conflict i really don't know as its tough to get past the infomation war, I'm talking more the moral position. If say Putin were to gain a bit more territory in the east and then declare some kind of extended Donbass Republic, haunt his advances what would be the moral position then? would it be to try and retake all Russian held areas and maybe even the Crimera? would it be to agree to a ceasefire and negotiate?

Ukraine getting everything back including Crimea would be the only moral outcome for them. The only moral outcome for Putin would be putting a bullet in his skull. But if you talk about a compromise to minimise suffering the Ukrainians would probably need to let go of Crimea.

 

[DoomPatrol]

No they did not they did not try to seize a city of 3 million with that small of a force

The fuck do you think the civilian population has to do with Russia fighting the Ukrainian military and militia forces around the city for control?

It's not like all 3 million residents are going to war.

You sound like a Putin shill trying to reframe a complete disaster into a tactical genius moment. 30k troops and access to a major airfield would have been everything they needed to take kyiv without the series of disasters they had.

Just a factoid.... Baghdad was a city of 6 million residents when coalition forces seized power from Saddam with a force of....... You guessed it...... 30k troops

 

[moreorless87]

Ukraine getting everything back including Crimea would be the only moral outcome for them. The only moral outcome for Putin would be putting a bullet in his skull. But if you talk about a compromise to minimise suffering the Ukrainians would probably need to let go of Crimea.

Really though the moral outcome I'd be most concerned about would be for the civilians caught in the middle. Putin has no moral high ground but I don't think its automatically a situation were any opposition to him is automatically the moral position, really I think in that situation the moral position becomes much murkier, things like his potential plans for future aggression, how he's treating the local population and indeed the views of the local population start to become significant factors for me given that retaking the terratory would likely come with the cost of thousands more deaths and mass destruction.

Just a factoid.... Baghdad was a city of 6 million residents when coalition forces seized power from Saddam with a force of....... You guessed it...... 30k troops

Honestly though I think before battlefield effectiveness the difference is that Saddam was basically clinging to power via intimidation, he didnt have the backing of most of the population, very little foreign support and even the armed forces largely melted away when they realised he was going to fall and they wouldnt face reprisals, similar to what happened in Afganistan last year.

I suspect if Putin underestimated Ukrainian resistance his mistake was underestimating nationalism which I think is much stronger there now than it was for Saddam(a Sunni ruler in a mostly Shia nation). Nationalism started to become a factor in the Iraqi resistance to US occupation though and thats really when problems became significant.

 

[Yotsuya]

Really though the moral outcome I'd be most concerned about would be for the civilians caught in the middle. Putin has no moral high ground but I don't think its automatically a situation were any opposition to him is automatically the moral position, really I think in that situation the moral position becomes much murkier, things like his potential plans for future aggression, how he's treating the local population and indeed the views of the local population start to become significant factors for me given that retaking the terratory would likely come with the cost of thousands more deaths and mass destruction.

Donbas can't remain under Russian control. The locals have turned agains Russians. Crimea could get autonomy. Maybe parts of Donbas too, but with strong constitution agains Russian control.

 

[DoomPatrol]

.
I suspect if Putin underestimated Ukrainian resistance his mistake was underestimating nationalism which I think is much stronger there now than it was for Saddam(a Sunni ruler in a mostly Shia nation). Nationalism started to become a factor in the Iraqi resistance to US occupation though and thats really when problems became significant.

People forget that Putin didn't start with a kinetic war. He started by giving his FSB millions of dollars to use for bribes in Ukraine. Instead of making the right payoffs the money was stolen. That's partially why the Russian northern front failed. They invaded under the presumption that the FSB had basically bribed the right parties in Ukraine to get into kyiv with little resistance. Instead they faced serious resistance with strong support from all Western nations.

Instead of paying bribes Putin's leadership had stole the money for themselves, as is the Russian way. Internal corruption is why their northern front failed.

When the war in Ukraine started, nobody was about to admit they had stolen the bribe money. That's why half the leadership in the FSB is under arrest right now.

I suspect @Snowblindlove was talking about how quickly they were going to take Kyiv in the early days when it was nearly surrounded by Russian forces. Now that they failed, it was "always just a feint". Hilarious propaganda from a double yellow nobody has ever heard of before.

 

[bad mojo]

There's a tiny minority of retards, around a few hundred, racist right wingers, maybe a few dozen who organise against immigration into Ireland, one or two trying to monetize it with YouTube channels, they get overwhelming pushback from everyone else. 20 cars with Russian flags decide to troll everyone with a "spontaneous" show of support for Russia...totally not copying what's happened in other countries... That's hardly indicative of a wider movement of support for Russia in this...meanwhile back in the real world, dozens of lorrys make the journey to Russia from Ireland full of donated aid, the Russian embassy gates are rammed, and the embassy ran out of heating oil for a month because firms flat out refused to supply them, and thousands of ukranian refugees are being welcomed with open arms...

It's ok, man. I didn't mention it to somehow make the Irish look bad or something. Everyone should be free to show how they feel, without justifying anything. Some weeks ago there were huge rallies here in Belgrade, 50k+ crowds, and the entire downtown was looking like a giant Russian flag. If people feel the need to show their support, it's perfectly fine.

 

[moreorless87]

Donbas can't remain under Russian control. The locals have turned agains Russians. Crimea could get autonomy. Maybe parts of Donbas too, but with strong constitution agains Russian control.

If thats the case then you might have a situation were holding off and waiting for the Russian occupation to collapse maybe better.

 

[SandisLL]

I suspect really though one of the big drivers behind this invasion was that Putin considered the idea of power swapping back and forth between pro and anti Russian politicans was over.

So called anti russian politics before war was...
russians, belarus and jews had at least 20% impact in business. In Kiev.
When war started, they relocated and relocated these employees they considered difficult to replace.