UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

[BigSteve]

If anyone is interested, I put together an extensive technical analysis on why I believe Islam will beat Oliveira. It's a long one, but there are timestamps in the description and comments to bounce around

I enjoyed this. Will this be a regular thing on your channel?

 

[JC615]

- Anyone else think Lansberg will get the win and bust a lot of parlays in the first fight? I doubt it, but I will say that I've noticed a trend in the last couple of years where the underdog in the opening fight of PPV's seems to cash more often than not. I have no statistics to back this up. I'm ripped and possibly 7 beers in but I believe it to be true.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

- Anyone else think Lansberg will get the win and bust a lot of parlays in the first fight? I doubt it, but I will say that I've noticed a trend in the last couple of years where the underdog in the opening fight of PPV's seems to cash more often than not. I have no statistics to back this up. I'm ripped and possibly 7 beers in but I believe it to be true.

I don't see a path to victory for Lansberg so no.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

- Anyone else think Lansberg will get the win and bust a lot of parlays in the first fight? I doubt it, but I will say that I've noticed a trend in the last couple of years where the underdog in the opening fight of PPV's seems to cash more often than not. I have no statistics to back this up. I'm ripped and possibly 7 beers in but I believe it to be true.

I’d be pretty surprised to see Rosa earn her price tag. Odds are way out of wack. No way would I be laying that kind of chalk on Rosa let alone throwing her in parlays

 

[Guld]

I'm actually pretty excited to see the weigh ins tomorrow. I really want this card to go through without any shenanigans at the scales.

EDIT: The card is so good on paper that I am fully prepared for some of the most boring decisions I've ever seen though haha.

 

[JC615]

I’d be pretty surprised to see Rosa earn her price tag. Odds are way out of wack. No way would I be laying that kind of chalk on Rosa let alone throwing her in parlays

- Agreed. As everyone always says; it's a low-level women's MMA fight so lay -300 if you deem it necessary I suppose?

 

[Macaque]

Am I crazy for thinking Muradov DEC has some value? I favor Borralho of course but Muradov is a solid fighter. And I don’t see him finishing Caio.

 

[JC615]

Am I crazy for thinking Muradov DEC has some value? I favor Borralho of course but Muradov is a solid fighter. And I don’t see him finishing Caio.

+500 has value in a sport full of shit judging. Maybe hedge with CB +175 but yes, as someone alluded to earlier, there's a good chance Muradov is being undervalued due to recency bias from the GM loss.

 

[Thesnake101]

Zubaira/Almeida fight is off due to weight, apparently on Zubaira's part but haven't looked too deeply into it yet. Figured something like that might happen since Tukhugov rarely gets in there, but still dissapointing for my parlays.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

chook missed weight, i was very sure that was going to happen with her arriving late in dubai.

 

[Tebowned]

He's competent but at his age and mileage is he competent enough to keep Aljo off him? I kinda doubt it. I wouldn't be totally shocked if he looks better than I think he will, but I will be mildly surprised. I think we're seeing an ascending guy (even at 33 years old) vs a guy who's still good but who's best days are behind him.

I'm on Aljo pretty big
Aside from handicapping this fight has a champ in the modern era won a championship 3 different times(I guess besides Nunes at 2 different weight classes)?

 

[fedortips]

Wait...Islam first TD vs Charles first TD? And you got it at evens? That makes zero sense. Charles is unlikely to be able to take Islam down even once (even with Charles much improved wrestling) and Islam can take Charles down almost whenever he wants (and he'll undoubtedly want to). That line has to be a mistake.

That's the bet. Charles 2.90, no td 5.25 and Islam is 1.95

 

[Spath]

View attachment 948967

That's the bet. Charles 2.90, no td 5.25 and Islam is 1.95

Good bet, I’d get on that if I had the chance.

 

[Russ82]

Imagine betting against a guy like TJ in this division against guy like Aljo

 

[Vir_Ars]

so, which fighters got the best and worst cardio? The heat in Abu Dhabi always kill the fighters cardio with as result, boring DEC or quick finishes.

 

[burge13]

so, which fighters got the best and worst cardio? The heat in Abu Dhabi always kill the fighters cardio with as result, boring DEC or quick finishes.

The arena is surely a state of the art, brand new building with air conditioning lol

 

[mkess101]

View attachment 948967

That's the bet. Charles 2.90, no td 5.25 and Islam is 1.95

LMAO you are stealing from them. That's a max bet if I've ever seen one.

 

[mkess101]

Imagine betting against a guy like TJ in this division against guy like Aljo

Meaning? You think TJ rolls here?

 

[rille31]

Doing lots of tape watching today.

Withdrew some of my bets and am feeling more confident on others.

I ended up watching a few of Arman's fights (Gamrot and Islam). I think Arman won both. I'm really looking forward to his next fight because I have a feeling the oddsmakers (and fans) aren't going to put money on him like they should and it should result in some really nice odds.

Really, what rounds did you give to Arman against Islam?

Not a single outlet scored it for him

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/9973/Islam-Makhachev-vs-Arman-Tsarukyan

 

[mkess101]

- Anyone else think Lansberg will get the win and bust a lot of parlays in the first fight? I doubt it, but I will say that I've noticed a trend in the last couple of years where the underdog in the opening fight of PPV's seems to cash more often than not. I have no statistics to back this up. I'm ripped and possibly 7 beers in but I believe it to be true.

Better chance Rosa stops her with strikes imo. Rosa is a beast with her striking, and Lina doesn't really pose much of a grappling threat. Rosa will bust her up imo.