UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

[Al Tair]

Yes, Munhoz got hit by a punch and I even said it during that fight. I agree, Sean was on his way to winning. That doesn't mean that Sean wasn't still getting his legs kicked to hell. He was. Those aren't mutually exclusive. IIRC he had a knee issue at some point in the past too.

He has holes in his game is my point. He's good, esp offensively and like I said I think there's some value on him as a sizeable dog here. But that doesn't mean there aren't flaws.

yea i know i sound like i am defending him a lot ( i bet on him obviously), but I really think Sean is on another level, i do see him getting starched by sterling tho.

 

[mkess101]

yea i know i sound like i am defending him a lot ( i bet on him obviously), but I really think Sean is on another level, i do see him getting starched by sterling tho.

Well the grappling is something I honestly don't know about Sean. To deal with a top tier grappler would be another challenge. I don't **think** Yan will try to grapple him a ton here but who knows?

 

[Al Tair]

That is possible.
If O'Malley can work the distance with his jab+kicks and control the range with his footwork he could easily knock Yan around. Yan did experience issues with range+volume with Aljo in both fights.
I kinda get the feeling that Yan is gonna just blitz this time around though. I know he's known for taking a round off, but I don't think he's going to this time. He's mentioned specifically that he wants to mix it up, so I kinda think he closes the distance and tries to show off his grappling this time around.

Yea it is an interesting matchup, kinda reminds me of Whitaker vs Adesanya. Strong well rounded fighter vs Long Rangy opponents with fast reflexes and diverse attacks

 

[Al Tair]

Well the grappling is something I honestly don't know about Sean. To deal with a top tier grappler would be another challenge. I don't **think** Yan will try to grapple him a ton here but who knows?

yea i dont think so. Yan comes across as an "efficient" fighter, i dont think he will be forcing anything and it will probably be a 3 round kick boxing match. For Yan to force a takedown would be to admit defeat in the standup game, i think hiis ego is a big as his head haha

 

[Russ82]

Meaning? You think TJ rolls here?

TJ flogs him

Charles and TJ parlay is the easiest money on this card

 

[Al Tair]

TJ flogs him

Charles and TJ parlay is the easiest money on this card

You mean easiest way to lose your money.

TJ is coming off a loss against Cody, everyone KNOWS he lost. This will be a dominant win by sterling.
Charles run is inspiring but seriosuly he is going to get dominated.
I dare you to ask yourself this:
If charles goes for a submission attempt against a guy who has submitted world class BJJ active competiitors (Islam) and then fails, what do you think will happen if that doesn't work?
You can only go for so many submission attempts before you eventually break.

 

[Russ82]

You mean easiest way to lose your money.

TJ is coming off a loss against Cody, everyone KNOWS he lost. This will be a dominant win by sterling.
Charles run is inspiring but seriosuly he is going to get dominated.
I dare you to ask yourself this:
If charles goes for a submission attempt against a guy who has submitted world class BJJ active competiitors (Islam) and then fails, what do you think will happen if that doesn't work?
You can only go for so many submission attempts before you eventually break.[/QUOTE

We will see tomorrow bro, respect your decision. I will always bet on experience. Islam is a future champ for sure but Charles is way too experienced for him at this point.

Can't see Sterling taking TJ down and controlling him for 25 minutes. I think he gets chewed the fuck up on the feet to a decison TJ

 

[Al Tair]

We will see tomorrow bro. I will always bet on experience. Islam is a future champ for sure but Charles is way too experienced for him at this point.

Can't see Sterling taking TJ down and controlling him for 25 minutes. I think he gets chewed the fuck up

Yea TJ is defnitely getting controlled but not for 25mins, 48-47 split decision Aljo

 

[Al Tair]

I dont think TJ will be quite as aggressive due to the threat of the takedown.

 

[Bakayoko]

"Sean has shown a serious lack of ability to defend leg kicks, and has had his leg buckle and give out on him to the point where he quit and was TKO'd inside 2 minutes. Those two things are not a great combo."

You lost me there bud. Accidents happen, this was a freak accident. That's like using Tom Aspinall's loss against him.
Watch the below video, munhoz was going to be finished in the first round and got away scott free because of a technicality.
The only way I see Yan winning is if he fights like Kris Moutinho,
walk sean down and absorb deadly shots in the process, I don't think Yan is that type of fighter, he is very good defensivley so I see him reacting a lot to Sean's feints, maybe Yan steals the last round I guesss. Malley 29-28 pretty confident in this.

I'm on Yan high but I don't think Sean is bad or something like that but man,you're overreaching.Comparing O'Malley to Adesanya-ok,there are some similiraties but Izzy was a Glory champion,a proven kickboxer and his second UFC fight was Marvin Vettori.
Izzy's overall skill is on another level.
Look at the competition they set up for O'Malley:
Eddie Wineland-once a good fighter,washed,last fight KO'd under a minute by Cody Stamman-a guy who never KO'd anyone in the UFC
Moutinho-a punching bag,sparked later in the 1st by 42 year old Canetti
Pavia-not a bad fighter overall,but very hittable,got a high profile win over Kyler cause Kyler got gassed trying to murder him.
Munhoz-his best competiton so far,but 1-4 before facing O'Malley and a good match up.
Another thing,you claim the injury in the Chito fight to be a freak accident,but similiar thing happened in the Soukmatath fight.Once an accident,twice I'm not so sure.He didn't try much after that injury,no offense or defense from the back,just ate a few elbows and went to sleep,I've seen guys go out on their shield with that damaged leg nerve.And in the Moutinho fight I didn't like the way he reacted to a few punches that Moutinho landed.I don't suspect Sean is fragile cause he's smokes weed and dives his hair and that shit,I think he is cause his history when facing adversity shows that.And while having the reach advantage he's going in against a terminator who's tenacious and durable and skillfull and I think it's too much for him.
Also,while Yan starts slower,it's more visible on his 5rd fights,he picks it up quicker in a 3 rounder and O Malley also doesn't come out guns blazing,he uses the first 2-3 minutes to find his timing.It's gonna be a tough night for O'Malley I think.

 

[Oblivian]

TJ is coming off a loss against Cody, everyone KNOWS he lost. This will be a dominant win by sterling..

Yea TJ is defnitely getting controlled but not for 25mins, 48-47 split decision Aljo

You gotta love this forum....

 

[mkess101]

TJ flogs him

Charles and TJ parlay is the easiest money on this card

Interesting. I'm on the other side of both. (I mean with who I pick to win. I have $ on Islam but not Aljo, that's a pass for me as I think odds are about right).

Good luck!

 

[KTFOvids]

charlie olives (t)ko @ +600
TJ dec @ +333
Rosa (t)ko @ +650

 

[mkess101]

We will see tomorrow bro, respect your decision. I will always bet on experience. Islam is a future champ for sure but Charles is way too experienced for him at this point.

Can't see Sterling taking TJ down and controlling him for 25 minutes. I think he gets chewed the fuck up on the feet to a decison TJ

Islam is 31 and has 23 pro fights. Literally grew up in Khabib's dad's gym. Has ate, slept, and lived fighting his whole life. Charles absolutely has been in there (and lately beaten) a MUCH higher level of competition but let's not act like Islam is some sort of newb to the game. And the fight is in a place where the crowd will be with him.

It was a long time ago, but I remember arguing with someone about a LHW title fight and them saying "How can you favor the guy who hasn't proven it yet? You're gonna pay juice on the less proven guy vs someone who's been in with and beaten the best???" And I said "Yep, because sometimes someone comes along who's just that dude. Just a different breed and who's special and the eye test shows it." And Jon Jones made Shogun look like a child and made me a lot of $.

And I think Islam (while obviously a different style fighter) is that dude too.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Islam is 31 and has 23 pro fights. Literally grew up in Khabib's dad's gym. Has ate, slept, and lived fighting his whole life. Charles absolutely has been in there (and lately beaten) a MUCH higher level of competition but let's not act like Islam is some sort of newb to the game. And the fight is in a place where the crowd will be with him.

It was a long time ago, but I remember arguing with someone about a LHW title fight and them saying "How can you favor the guy who hasn't proven it yet? You're gonna pay juice on the less proven guy vs someone who's been in with and beaten the best???" And I said "Yep, because sometimes someone comes along who's just that dude. Just a different breed and who's special and the eye test shows it." And Jon Jones made Shogun look like a child and made me a lot of $.

And I think Islam (while obviously a different style fighter) is that dude too.

The biggest difference between Islam and Khabib, and Jon Jones is his questionable chin.





This was a stiff jab that caused him to fall into one knee. You may think i'm grasping at straws, but i ask you if you think Davi Ramos would have done that to Khabib?

Islam didn't even shoot until round 3, Islam to me is a less aggressive grappler than Khabib and that could be his downfall, opting to stand for two rounds with Charles like he did Ramos. I passed on both, but leaned lightly on Islam in one small parlay 33$ pick 6 fighters. That is all i played him for, low exposure, i think Charles is a dangerous fight for him, right now I rate his chin 'suspect' and that is enough to not confident bet a whole unit on him, the odds reflect the general viewpoint of the public at large. And i think the odds are off a little, Charles should be a 100+ imo.

 

[mkess101]

The biggest difference between Islam and Khabib, and Jon Jones is his questionable chin.

View attachment 949192

View attachment 949193

This was a stiff jab that caused him to fall into one knee. You may think i'm grasping at straws, but i ask you if you think Davi Ramos would have done that to Khabib?

Islam didn't even shoot until round 3, Islam to me is a less aggressive grappler than Khabib and that could be his downfall, opting to stand for two rounds with Charles like he did Ramos. I passed on both, but leaned lightly on Islam in one small parlay 33$ pick 6 fighters. That is all i played him for, low exposure, i think Charles is a dangerous fight for him, right now I rate his chin 'suspect' and that is enough to not confident bet a whole unit on him, the odds reflect the general viewpoint of the public at large. And i think the odds are off a little, Charles should be a 100+ imo.

Probably nitpicking a LITTLE but not a totally invalid point all. I think he stood with Davi because that's a world champion grappler who had never done much as a striker so Islam's camp figured it would be a good fight to use his stand up.

Charles is a different fight. He's obviously a legit sub threat but he's not the overall grappler that Davi is. And more importantly, Islam's camp knows full well how dangerous Charles is standing. He's made that very obvious lately.

I'd be surprised if Islam stands too long with Charles, I really would. I think he believes (rightfully so) that his top game and overall grappling will wear Charles down and even as good as Charles is off his back, he won't be able to contend with what Islam brings.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

damn 30min delay to card i coulda slept a bit more smh

 

[Guld]

I think one of my fav part of this card is that there does seem to be a bit more "chip on the shoulder" attitude going in to it.
Yan seems like he's pissed he's not champ and wants to make a point with Sean.
Sean seems like he's constantly being overlooked and wants to make a point with Yan.
TJ and Aljo both seem to genuinely dislike eachother.
Charles with "I'm gonna kill that guy"
Belal seems pissed that people are still underestimating him and his skills.

That type of competitive drive is very rare in a lot of other sports these days(and often in MMA). I'm hoping it translates to one hell of a card, because I don't remember the last time a card had this much attitude/competitiveness going in to it.

 

[The Disasters]

damn 30min delay to card i coulda slept a bit more smh

I'm creeping around my dark house trying to get setup without waking up my wife and daughter. Get settled at 6:55 and turn it on. Only to have 35 minutes left. Fuckers.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Have to take the family to a fall festival today of all days

should miss a solid 2-3 hours of prelims and get back one fight into the main card.

I don’t think this is a great card for betting.

there are a few spots I like and one of them is yan rds 2 and 3 +900 and 1100

min also going to play Rosa rds 2 and 3 ko because the odds are +1600 and +1800.

i don’t think it hits but it’s more of a spite play for mike saying he likes Rosa ko +500

Aljo sub I’m taking a decent stab at +390. This one I probably have the least confidence in at the price I got

I have Islam at -155. Depending on how the odds go I may buy out of it and play do Bronx rds 1,2 and Islam 3-5