UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev, Sat, Oct 22

[mkess101]

Almeida/Turk is off. Maybe was already posted, not sure.

 

[HighStakesMMA]

Can't wait for this card. Most of these fights genuinely can go either way and there are strong arguments to be made on either side.

I'm surprised almost everyone I read on here and other social media is totally overlooking Dariush. I think he's very dangerous and I can't stop staring at his odds.

Should be a fantastic day of fights. I'm on Charles and TJ with a sprinkle on Suga Sean.

 

[Guld]

Can't wait for this card. Most of these fights genuinely can go either way and there are strong arguments to be made on either side.

I'm surprised almost everyone I read on here and other social media is totally overlooking Dariush. I think he's very dangerous and I can't stop staring at his odds.

Should be a fantastic day of fights. I'm on Charles and TJ with a sprinkle on Suga Sean.

I put a small bit on Gamrot, but I agree that Dariush could easily win it. I'm kinda using Arman as my measuring stick. I feel very confident that Arman in a 5 rounder with Dariush would have dominated him, whereas Gamrot held his own and arguably won the fight (I still think Arman deserved it, but w/e)

 

[Guld]

Really, what rounds did you give to Arman against Islam?

Not a single outlet scored it for him

http://www.mmadecisions.com/decision/9973/Islam-Makhachev-vs-Arman-Tsarukyan

Honestly, when I first watched it so did I. I did a rewatch to see if anybody has had luck "with the grappling of Islam", because some people have been posting that nobody can handle it so far.

I probably would have scored the first and second for Arman. Both were very close rounds but Arman was the aggressor, landed the better strikes (hardly any in the entire fight mind you), had the better control, and looked better in the scrambles. They were close rounds mind you, and this isn't anywhere near "robbery" status, and Islam clearly won the third after Arman gassed.

At the end of the day, it's no biggie. Islam got the nod, and I can totally recognize why somebody would score all 3 for him. The important takeaway is that Islam did not do well with the initial pressure and actually had difficultly with the fast scrambles. His grappling is not "perfect" and he has holes in his game as well. It also told me that Islam is great at pacing, patience, and recovery, which might be very valuable for this fight.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Better chance Rosa stops her with strikes imo. Rosa is a beast with her striking, and Lina doesn't really pose much of a grappling threat. Rosa will bust her up imo.

Really brah?

Rosa hasn’t finished anyone since regionals

lansberg will clinch her up like she does everybody else. Almost -400 is insane

 

[The Disasters]

I just went through all the totals and only one was attractive to me. I hit the over in Oezdemir/Krylov. Neither is very impressive and I think they both end up doing a lot of hugging. This is going to be a very low handle event for me. Weird shit happens on Fight Island so I generally don't bet as much over there.

 

[Guld]

Rosa vs Lansberg

Mokaev vs Gordon

Armen Petrosyan vs. AJ Dobson

Abubakar Nurmagomedov vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev

Volkan Oezdemir vs. Nikita Krylov

Makhmud Muradov vs. Caio Borralho

 

[Guld]

Belal Muhammad vs. Sean Brady

Katlyn Chookagian vs. Manon Fiorot

Beneil Dariush vs. Mateusz Gamrot

Petr Yan vs. Sean O'Malley

Aljamain Sterling vs. T.J. Dillashaw

Charles Oliveira vs. Islam Makhachev

 

[Guld]

The cameraman on the right has some funny ass expressions haha.

 

[mkess101]

Really brah?

Rosa hasn’t finished anyone since regionals

lansberg will clinch her up like she does everybody else. Almost -400 is insane

I think Rosa's footwork is gonna give Lina fits. I don't like Rosa ML either, way too juiced. Lina is 40 and super hittable now. I'd rather take a shot at Rosa KO around +500 if I was gonna play this fight at all. I don't necessarily expect it to hit bit odds are better than 20% it does imo.

 

[PuertoRican]

I think Rosa's footwork is gonna give Lina fits. I don't like Rosa ML either, way too juiced. Lina is 40 and super hittable now. I'd rather take a shot at Rosa KO around +500 if I was gonna play this fight at all. I don't necessarily expect it to hit bit odds are better than 20% it does imo.

I'll be betting Rosa's KO/TKO line once my airplane lands.

Wouldn't be surprised to see Lina retire after getting finished by Rosa.

 

[Orion]

I enjoyed this. Will this be a regular thing on your channel?

Thanks for watching, I appreciate it. Yes, I'd like to do more for some of the bigger fights mainly since they take a bit of time to prep

 

[mkess101]

@Al Tair


You said:

If you look at Sean purely as a fighter, and ignore the ridicolous image & personality you'd be crazy to put money against him.

Sean O Malley's run right now is at a similar stage to Adesanya's run against Derek brunson, similar age as well (28-29)

No one had much respect for adesanya because of his level of opposition and they all wanted him to lose because of his personality.

Offensively I think there's some similarities between O'Malley and Izzy, but there's some differences too. Sean has shown a serious lack of ability to defend leg kicks, and has had his leg buckle and give out on him to the point where he quit and was TKO'd inside 2 minutes. Those two things are not a great combo.

Keep in mind, I already said I liked a play on O'Malley a bit because of Yan's tendency to start slow and some of the advantages O'Malley has with reach and distance control. I said this way before you posted anything about this fight, so I am NOT hating on O'Malley here. But I think you also need to pump the brakes just a little. O'Malley has a LOT more to show before we start comparing him to Izzy. (For the record I am not an Izzy fan either, and am picking Pereira to take his belt).

 

[Al Tair]

@Al Tair


You said:

If you look at Sean purely as a fighter, and ignore the ridicolous image & personality you'd be crazy to put money against him.

Sean O Malley's run right now is at a similar stage to Adesanya's run against Derek brunson, similar age as well (28-29)

No one had much respect for adesanya because of his level of opposition and they all wanted him to lose because of his personality.

Offensively I think there's some similarities between O'Malley and Izzy, but there's some differences too. Sean has shown a serious lack of ability to defend leg kicks, and has had his leg buckle and give out on him to the point where he quit and was TKO'd inside 2 minutes. Those two things are not a great combo.

Keep in mind, I already said I liked a play on O'Malley a bit because of Yan's tendency to start slow and some of the advantages O'Malley has with reach and distance control. I said this way before you posted anything about this fight, so I am NOT hating on O'Malley here. But I think you also need to pump the brakes just a little. O'Malley has a LOT more to show before we start comparing him to Izzy. (For the record I am not an Izzy fan either, and am picking Pereira to take his belt).

"Sean has shown a serious lack of ability to defend leg kicks, and has had his leg buckle and give out on him to the point where he quit and was TKO'd inside 2 minutes. Those two things are not a great combo."

You lost me there bud. Accidents happen, this was a freak accident. That's like using Tom Aspinall's loss against him.
Watch the below video, munhoz was going to be finished in the first round and got away scott free because of a technicality.
The only way I see Yan winning is if he fights like Kris Moutinho,
walk sean down and absorb deadly shots in the process, I don't think Yan is that type of fighter, he is very good defensivley so I see him reacting a lot to Sean's feints, maybe Yan steals the last round I guesss. Malley 29-28 pretty confident in this.

 

[Al Tair]

 

[Al Tair]

The way I see it Sean Malley KO'd Munho in the first round, that's why I am all in with Sean on this.

 

[Guld]

The way I see it Sean Malley KO'd Munho in the first round, that's why I am all in with Sean on this.

I agree that he was well on his way to beating Munhoz. Sean has some great potential, but just like every fighter, he has his weaknesses. One of them is his ability to deal with "tough" fighters that walk through his strikes to deliver their own. The other is leg kicks/fragility of his legs. He's had two fights end because his legs gave out. Yan is tough as nails and has great leg kicks.
I do think that Sean is often underrated because of his personality + image. He has great skills, but stylistically this is a tough matchup for him.

With that being said, I see nothing wrong in putting a hail mary bet on him. He very well may put on a masterclass tomorrow. I wouldn't personally put too much on that risk myself.
If you do, good luck!

 

[mkess101]

"Sean has shown a serious lack of ability to defend leg kicks, and has had his leg buckle and give out on him to the point where he quit and was TKO'd inside 2 minutes. Those two things are not a great combo."

You lost me there bud. Accidents happen, this was a freak accident. That's like using Tom Aspinall's loss against him.
Watch the below video, munhoz was going to be finished in the first round and got away scott free because of a technicality.
The only way I see Yan winning is if he fights like Kris Moutinho,
walk sean down and absorb deadly shots in the process, I don't think Yan is that type of fighter, he is very good defensivley so I see him reacting a lot to Sean's feints, maybe Yan steals the last round I guesss. Malley 29-28 pretty confident in this.

Yes, Munhoz got hit by a punch and I even said it during that fight. I agree, Sean was on his way to winning. That doesn't mean that Sean wasn't still getting his legs kicked to hell. He was. Those aren't mutually exclusive. IIRC he had a knee issue at some point in the past too.

He has holes in his game is my point. He's good, esp offensively and like I said I think there's some value on him as a sizeable dog here. But that doesn't mean there aren't flaws.

 

[Al Tair]

I agree that he was well on his way to beating Munhoz. Sean has some great potential, but just like every fighter, he has his weaknesses. One of them is his ability to deal with "tough" fighters that walk through his strikes to deliver their own. The other is leg kicks/fragility of his legs. He's had two fights end because his legs gave out. Yan is tough as nails and has great leg kicks.

The accidents to the leg don't sway my opinion this much because even the best fighters break from time to time. Tom Aspinall , Rakich , weidman, conor the list goes on.
I can't see how Yan will setup his leg kicks honestly, with Malley's Jab pointed like a laser at him he could get easily dropped if he is not setting up his leg kicks. It took him 2.5 rounds to figure out his range and timing with cody, I think this fight will be similar.

 

[Guld]

The accidents to the leg don't sway my opinion this much because even the best fighters break from time to time. Tom Aspinall , Rakich , weidman, conor the list goes on.
I can't see how Yan will setup his leg kicks honestly, with Malley's Jab pointed like a laser at him he could get easily dropped if he is not setting up his leg kicks. It took him 2.5 rounds to figure out his range and timing with cody, I think this fight will be similar.

That is possible.
If O'Malley can work the distance with his jab+kicks and control the range with his footwork he could easily knock Yan around. Yan did experience issues with range+volume with Aljo in both fights.
I kinda get the feeling that Yan is gonna just blitz this time around though. I know he's known for taking a round off, but I don't think he's going to this time. He's mentioned specifically that he wants to mix it up, so I kinda think he closes the distance and tries to show off his grappling this time around.