News Jailton Almeida vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik set for May 13th

[StonedLemur]

WAR ALAMEIDA.

War Aluminum lol, Jfwy sir

 

[Safton]

Aspinall will know the first time he's actually in the cage whether his knee will hold up, nevermind his cardio.

He's a big dude and he had extensive knee surgery, that alone is going to fuck with his cardio.
Im sure he hasn't been running much sir.

"I have suffered a torn MCL, a torn meniscus and some ACL damage." ~Aspinall
Aug 3, 2022

Ah yeah, but that's a given. A lot of guys don't come back looking quite the same after an injury like that.

But I was talking about his cardio pre-injury; all of his victories (even in boxing) were first-round finishes. The one guy to extend him to the second round was Arlovski and in that fight it looked like he suffered a bad adrenaline dump. It legitimately looked like Andrei might take over until Aspinall flipped the script with a takedown.

 

[Siver!]

Ah yeah, but that's a given. A lot of guys don't come back looking quite the same after an injury like that.

But I was talking about his cardio pre-injury; all of his victories (even in boxing) were first-round finishes. The one guy to extend him to the second round was Arlovski and in that fight it looked like he suffered a bad adrenaline dump. It legitimately looked like Andrei might take over until Aspinall flipped the script with a takedown.

That's interesting...

Imagine if he comes back just that little bit slower and more hesitant...

Aspinall could legitimately be this generation's Frank Mir!

 

[USA!USA!]

Rozenstruik always has a chance but I don't think he is upper echelon. Interested to see some new blood up there.

 

[The Last King]

Light WOOK.

This brazzo is going to tackle Jarz to the mat and strangle him in under a hound.

 

[StonedLemur]

Ah yeah, but that's a given. A lot of guys don't come back looking quite the same after an injury like that.

But I was talking about his cardio pre-injury; all of his victories (even in boxing) were first-round finishes. The one guy to extend him to the second round was Arlovski and in that fight it looked like he suffered a bad adrenaline dump. It legitimately looked like Andrei might take over until Aspinall flipped the script with a takedown.

Its unfortunate, but I think he might have a hard time coming back, but I guess we'll have to see if he looks comfortable.

You have any idea when he's supposed to return sir?

 

[NoSmilez]

I think Jailton got it. Bigi boy is going to get grapple fucked.

 

[CC27]

Nice step up in div but its def a favorable matchup for him. If he can avoid striking he'll be able to get him down and mop him up.

After that he'll be in the Aspinall, Spivak, Tuivasa range but the real challengers for him are Pav, Blaydes, Gane.

 

[ChimRichalds]

Definitely favoring Almeida here, but there's a real chance Roze can fend off a few TDs and crack him. I think Jailton eventually gets his grappling working though and finishes him.

 

[ChimRichalds]

I agree for the most part. The thing that got him to the dance is his mentality of "Heavyweights don't know how to grapple so I'm going to run through these guys". He started putting in good work at EFT and has made huge strides with his stand-up -- I legitimately think he's one of the most underrated strikers in the division -- but he has a really lackadaisical attitude towards his grappling by assuming it'll always be in his back pocket when he needs it. He's simultaneously a very introspective, self-reflective guy who's clearly a student of the game and is capable of understanding his own mistakes and making adjustments in some cases... while in other cases he adopts a very stubborn approach that seems to be missing the point.

It's so frustrating as a fan of the guy because I honestly feel like he's sometimes just a few micro-adjustments away from being a fantastic Heavyweight champion. I don't want him to lose the progress he's made in the stand-up (especially since there are some guys like Almeida you don't necessarily want to take down), but I do want to see him be able to get back to his old ways of being able to consistently ragdoll 265-pound men before pounding their faces into hamburger on the mat.



Agreed. He absolutely has the tools to win this, but I'd be lying if there wasn't a little pucker factor involved for me. I really like Almeida as a prospect, I'd just rather see him at 205 is all. Every step up he takes at Heavyweight feels like one step closer he's taking to inevitably and violently getting derailed and running smack into a brick wall.

What's especially strange about him staying at HW is it's not like there's a big list of guys at 205 that could handle his grappling either. Maybe he just hates cutting weight?

 

[Pierced7681]

Nice to finally get that step up in competition

i don’t know who can stop Almeida frankly, my guess is it will be another easy win for him

Blaydes fucks Almeida up and sends him to 205 permanently

 

[Kyd Blake]

If you've seen Rozenstruik's fights, you saw he hasnt finished quality opposition recently. In fact aside from Daukaus and Arlovski, he usually falls into that counterstriker approach and ends up not doing shit

I wouldn't bet the house on him

I see. My rebuttal to that is he survived the grappling of Overeem and Blaydes and striking of Gane for 3 rounds TKOing Overeem in the last second. His loss to Ngannou he got caught quick and got outstruck by the best striker in the division in Gane.

I haven't seen the 1st round TKO loss to Volkov (didn't even know they fought), and that's not a good look on the outside looking in, but losing to the last HW champ, Gane, Blaydes, and even Volkov is really nothing to be ashamed of. He's a solid HW striking gatekeeper, probably about as good as prime Derrick Lewis, without as many KOs. He'll never get a title shot, but always stay a ranked HW until the inevitable decline.

I don't know if Almeida's standup is high level and he obviously has the ground advantage, but technical striking and KO power make a great equalizer. Not saying he wins, but he's a good underdog bet if the bookies aren't wise.

 

[AmbassadorFright]

I gotta go with Almeida. Rozenstroke has never impressed me and Chris Daukaus might as well just be a free win at this point

 

[Tweak896]

Agreed on the first bit, but I would be profoundly surprised if Almeida ends up UFC Heavyweight champion and I say that as a massive fan of the guy. IMO he has a much higher ceiling at 205 than at HW. There are some rough fights for him at Heavyweight and the size disparity was apparent in both the Porter and Shamil fights, if only briefly.

Who would you give him and why? Jailton Almeida is #14 right now. I was going to give him Romanov who's just one slot ahead of him and coming off a loss. Way more justifiable. Rozenstruik is #9 and coming off a win. He's defending his rank despite having a case to fight up the ranks right now. Daukaus and Lewis are ahead of Almeida and coming off losses as well, but they're below Rozenstruik and would be even easier fights I imagine. Tybura is right below Rozenstruik on a win streak. Volkov is booked and coming off a win. Spivak is on a win streak at #7 and just "fought". Aspinall isn't healthy yet. Tuivasa needs to play gatekeeper, but do you really think Jailton has earned a Top 5 shot over everyone else I just mentioned?

Tai, Aspinall (maybe still injured?), Spivak? I guess #9 is appropriate. But he's kind of been a low key Khamzat in the UFC where I think he could handle a huge push.

 

[jk7707]

Meh. A good fight to move Almeida up the rankings, but we all know how it's going to play out. He's going to get an easy takedown against a kickboxer with bad TDD and sub him.

 

[Safton]

Its unfortunate, but I think he might have a hard time coming back, but I guess we'll have to see if he looks comfortable.

You have any idea when he's supposed to return sir?

I'm not holding my breath, though I have a tiny spark of hope after having seen Emmers perform so well in his first fight back after a long lay-off following his knee getting wrecked by Sabatini. Plus a few others who have come back from grueling injuries... but all in all probably wishful thinking on my part.

His return isn't set in stone and he seems to be taking things slow. He underwent a successful knee surgery in August after which the doctors gave him a hesitant timetable of eight months, but he believes that he should wait longer to be on the safe side in order to avoid a repeat incident because of the inherent wear & tear that Heavyweight MMA incurs on the joints. He also fully expects his first opponent back to try and attack his bum leg so he wants to take some extra time to make sure he's 100%. He said a return at UFC 286 in London is highly unlikely. As of late January he was finally back to being able to engage in full-on sparring, however.

If I had to guess, I wouldn't expect to see him back until about mid-Spring to early Summer at least... which would roughly fit in with a lot of projected timelines from people who thought he might need to take a year off when his injury first happened.

That's interesting...

Imagine if he comes back just that little bit slower and more hesitant...

Aspinall could legitimately be this generation's Frank Mir!

I want to believe!

What's especially strange about him staying at HW is it's not like there's a big list of guys at 205 that could handle his grappling either. Maybe he just hates cutting weight?

Right?! The hatred of cutting weight -- which to be fair I can't blame any athlete for -- is really my only guess.

People talk about him going up to Heavyweight to pick on the shallow talent pool, but then in the same breath they'll shit on modern LHW for being an absolute Dumpster fire ever since Jones left. I mean you're not exactly bumping shoulders with greats down there until you reach the Top 5 and even then I could see Jailton being a problem for a lot of those guys given time to develop. But prior to that, who's going to stop him? Devin Clark? Khalil Rountree? Dustin Jacoby? Johnny Walker? Some of them might give him pause but for the most part I have my doubts. The division is not exactly rife with elite grapplers or even elite fighters in general. Jailton would not only be a superior grappler to pretty much everyone at 205, but he would also be the one who gets to bully people around with his size and physicality instead of trying to play David to a weight class full of Goliaths every time.

But maybe I'm biased because I think the idea of him versus Paul Craig would be fun just for the hilarity of it...

 

[StonedLemur]

I'm not holding my breath, though I have a tiny spark of hope after having seen Emmers perform so well in his first fight back after a long lay-off following his knee getting wrecked by Sabatini. Plus a few others who have come back from grueling injuries... but all in all probably wishful thinking on my part.

His return isn't set in stone and he seems to be taking things slow. He underwent a successful knee surgery in August after which the doctors gave him a hesitant timetable of eight months, but he believes that he should wait longer to be on the safe side in order to avoid a repeat incident because of the inherent wear & tear that Heavyweight MMA incurs on the joints. He also fully expects his first opponent back to try and attack his bum leg so he wants to take some extra time to make sure he's 100%. He said a return at UFC 286 in London is highly unlikely. As of late January he was finally back to being able to engage in full-on sparring, however.

If I had to guess, I wouldn't expect to see him back until about mid-Spring to early Summer at least... which would roughly fit in with a lot of projected timelines from people who thought he might need to take a year off when his injury first happened.





I want to believe!



Right?! The hatred of cutting weight -- which to be fair I can't blame any athlete for -- is really my only guess.

People talk about him going up to Heavyweight to pick on the shallow talent pool, but then in the same breath they'll shit on modern LHW for being an absolute Dumpster fire ever since Jones left. I mean you're not exactly bumping shoulders with greats down there until you reach the Top 5 and even then I could see Jailton being a problem for a lot of those guys given time to develop. But prior to that, who's going to stop him? Devin Clark? Khalil Rountree? Dustin Jacoby? Johnny Walker? Some of them might give him pause but for the most part I have my doubts. The division is not exactly rife with elite grapplers or even elite fighters in general. Jailton would not only be a superior grappler to pretty much everyone at 205, but he would also be the one who gets to bully people around with his size and physicality instead of trying to play David to a weight class full of Goliaths every time.

But maybe I'm biased because I think the idea of him versus Paul Craig would be fun just for the hilarity of it...

I'll be worried for him until I see him return sir.

 

[Safton]

Tai, Aspinall (maybe still injured?), Spivak? I guess #9 is appropriate. But he's kind of been a low key Khamzat in the UFC where I think he could handle a huge push.

• See above. Aspinall won't be back for a few months at least in all likelihood.
  
• Tai is coming off a skid, but if he's smart he'll take some time off instead of foolishly rushing back into the cage yet again after having sustained so much concussive damage in his last two outings in such a small time frame. Plus, you're talking about potentially boosting #14 directly into the Top 5 off the back of two wins in the weight class and only a single ranked victory. Between Jailton and Bam Bam there are four contenders coming off wins -- some of which are on streaks -- all of which would likely argue that they deserve the opportunity for some Tuivasa smoke just as much.
• Spivak is one of said contenders. Three-fight win streak, all finishes, already in the Top 10. Dude's on a trajectory toward the Top 5 as it is. Look at it from his perspective: why should he have to defend his rank against someone way below him just because they have hype and momentum?

I say this as someone who likes Almeida a lot and will eagerly watch every time he's in the cage. He's probably the first hype train I've boarded since becoming a UFC fan. But on a meritocratic basis, I don't really think he should leapfrog so many dudes just because people like me and you are excited to see what he can do at the top of the division. One could argue that he's already getting a bit of a treat just by being handed Rozenstruik who's Top 10 and coming off a win; given the rankings he could have easily been tossed at a powerful wrestler in Romanov who's only one slot ahead of him (though I think he would win that fight). Just my two cents.

I'll be worried for him until I see him return sir.

I think that goes for everyone lmao. Fingers crossed.

 

[RicardinhoPT]

It's his toughest fight yet but Almeida is a beast and will get this done

 

[StonedLemur]

• See above. Aspinall won't be back for a few months at least in all likelihood.
  
• Tai is coming off a skid, but if he's smart he'll take some time off instead of foolishly rushing back into the cage yet again after having sustained so much concussive damage in his last two outings in such a small time frame. Plus, you're talking about potentially boosting #14 directly into the Top 5 off the back of two wins in the weight class and only a single ranked victory. Between Jailton and Bam Bam there are four contenders coming off wins -- some of which are on streaks -- all of which would likely argue that they deserve the opportunity for some Tuivasa smoke just as much.
• Spivak is one of said contenders. Three-fight win streak, all finishes, already in the Top 10. Dude's on a trajectory toward the Top 5 as it is. Look at it from his perspective: why should he have to defend his rank against someone way below him just because they have hype and momentum?

I say this as someone who likes Almeida a lot and will eagerly watch every time he's in the cage. He's probably the first hype train I've boarded since becoming a UFC fan. But on a meritocratic basis, I don't really think he should leapfrog so many dudes just because people like me and you are excited to see what he can do at the top of the division. One could argue that he's already getting a bit of a treat just by being handed Rozenstruik who's Top 10 and coming off a win; given the rankings he could have easily been tossed at a powerful wrestler in Romanov who's only one slot ahead of him (though I think he would win that fight). Just my two cents.



I think that goes for everyone lmao. Fingers crossed.

They're crossed sir...toes too lol