Bellator 161 - Johnson vs Kongo

Just remember that a lot of Kongo's wins are due to his offensive wrestling and grinding along the fence - where he'll be at a disadvantage. It's HW and Kongo can counter of course, but I think Johnson should be -150 or above honestly.
 
JimGunn said:
Kongo has pretty good wrestling himself and that's most of Johnson's game.
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I think if Johnson sets out to wrestlefuck Kongo he can win doing so. Kongo has just never impressed me.

Kongo needs space to open up his striking which is what he really wants to do. If Johnson just rides him on the fence and "fitches" him it could be a one sided decision. just my 2c.
 
Kongo is back to +120 and now you guys scared me off pulling the trigger.
 
Probably counter-intuitive for a female flyweight bout, but I bet 1u on the under 1½ at +100 in the Yankova/Arteaga fight thinking Yankova gets an early submission yet again against the American girl who, like Yankova herself, has fought only poor competition.
 
JimGunn said:
Kongo is back to +120 and now you guys scared me off pulling the trigger.
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i'm not second guessing it. kongo's the side at these odds. johnson isn't finishing shit, just play over if leaning his way.

i slightly favor kongo here. significant edge on feet, and if he actually took johnson down (it could happen), he'd smash him i think. but johnson definitely could get some wall control and try to huge it out for 15 mins, get a td here and there.

i don't think johnson will take kongo down all that easily, tho
 
EzFlyer said:
i'm not second guessing it. kongo's the side at these odds. johnson isn't finishing shit, just play over if leaning his way.

i slightly favor kongo here. significant edge on feet, and if he actually took johnson down (it could happen), he'd smash him i think. but johnson definitely could get some wall control and try to huge it out for 15 mins, get a td here and there.

i don't think johnson will take kongo down all that easily, tho
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Do you feel that the difference between +120, +100 or -120 is enough justification to sway you from betting one side to another in a pretty competitive, let's say close to 50/50 bout? I know the odds have to be taken into consideration, but sometimes I think relatively small differences in the odds like this are given a lot more consideration by bettors than is warranted oftentimes.
 
Going with my initial lean, 2u on Kongo at +120. I don't think that line will get better.
 
JimGunn said:
Do you feel that the difference between +120, +100 or -120 is enough justification to sway you from betting one side to another in a pretty competitive, let's say close to 50/50 bout? I know the odds have to be taken into consideration, but sometimes I think relatively small differences in the odds like this are given a lot more consideration by bettors than is warranted oftentimes.
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if it's 50/50 in my mind and +120 odds, for me, a 1-2u bet is justified. but even w/that, it depends on your level of confidence. if you're CERTAIN it could go either way, you could argue that a bigger bet is doable. in other words, some fights where i think it's 50/50, but i'm not truly confident in that lean, i'll bet smaller. (i.e. blanco-skelly is close to 50/50 for me, so you'd think i'd be betting big on blanco, but man, i don't know if i'm right, so more likely to be 0.5u or something)

i cap this more like 55-45 kongo, so i like +125 (or the +120 right now) quite a bit. i have 2u on the +125 but i have some extra plans on this fight. TBA later haha :p
 
I think this is also in Kongo's favor if Johnson wants to strike on the feet rather than wrestle.:

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2016/8/1...ohnson-interview-matt-mitrione-fight-mma-news

"I kind of want to exchange with him, honestly. I haven't showed that part of my game. People in Nashville and people that spar with me know that I have real good striking. I just haven't showed it. I haven't been comfortable enough in the cage to showcase it. But I'm getting comfortable. God help the heavyweights when I do get comfortable; it's going to be bad for everybody"
 
EzFlyer said:
i'm not second guessing it. kongo's the side at these odds. johnson isn't finishing shit, just play over if leaning his way.

i slightly favor kongo here. significant edge on feet, and if he actually took johnson down (it could happen), he'd smash him i think. but johnson definitely could get some wall control and try to huge it out for 15 mins, get a td here and there.

i don't think johnson will take kongo down all that easily, tho
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Unless Johnson is rocked or gasses, I'd be absolutely shocked if Kongo could keep him down and smash him after a takedown. I think you are highly overestimating Kongo's top control. A lot of the time when he gets takedowns, he's landing a bit before fighting to keep you back down. He eats up a lot of clock with his opponent trying to get back up, getting close, and then he barely keeps him down. Kongo has spent significant amounts of time in several fights winning using takedowns without much control, keeping the fighter on the fence, making his opponent defend a takedown, repeat. He's at an absolute disadvantage in that aspect in this fight, especially considering the weight difference + wrestling credentials.
 
Oblivian said:
Unless Johnson is rocked or gasses, I'd be absolutely shocked if Kongo could keep him down and smash him after a takedown. I think you are highly overestimating Kongo's top control. A lot of the time when he gets takedowns, he's landing a bit before fighting to keep you back down. He eats up a lot of clock with his opponent trying to get back up, getting close, and then he barely keeps him down. Kongo has spent significant amounts of time in several fights winning using takedowns without much control, keeping the fighter on the fence, making his opponent defend a takedown, repeat. He's at an absolute disadvantage in that aspect in this fight, especially considering the weight difference + wrestling credentials.
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Im not overestimating anything? I said it could happen. I think it's more likely that johnson walls and stalls a lot, loses striking exchanges.

Only thing I said with the utmost confidence is that anyone who bets johnson -160 when o2.5 was -160 as well is making a bad bet. And it's just my opinion.
 
EzFlyer said:
Im not overestimating anything? I said it could happen. I think it's more likely that johnson walls and stalls a lot, loses striking exchanges.

Only thing I said with the utmost confidence is that anyone who bets johnson -160 when o2.5 was -160 as well is making a bad bet. And it's just my opinion.
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Reread your quote. You said it could happen in regards to the takedown, but you said if the takedown does happen, you think he'd smash him on the ground. I don't know why you'd think Kongo would have such an easy time after getting the takedown.
 
JimGunn said:
Do you feel that the difference between +120, +100 or -120 is enough justification to sway you from betting one side to another in a pretty competitive, let's say close to 50/50 bout? I know the odds have to be taken into consideration, but sometimes I think relatively small differences in the odds like this are given a lot more consideration by bettors than is warranted oftentimes.
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Jim, you have come a long way since zewkey, but have you not realized yet that price movements near +100 have the biggest affect on your potential payout?

1u @ -120 = .83 profit
1u @ +120 = 1.20 profit

1u @ -120 = .83 profit
1u @ -220= .45 profit

1u @ -250 = .40 profit
1u @ -350 = .29 profit

As the line moves away from even, the line movement has a less weighted effect on your potential profit. In the 40 point difference you lose as much profit per dollar that you lose in a 100 point change from -120 to -220.
 
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Oblivian said:
Reread your quote. You said it could happen in regards to the takedown, but you said if the takedown does happen, you think he'd smash him on the ground. I don't know why you'd think Kongo would have such an easy time after getting the takedown.
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because kongo is dangerous on top, he always has been
 
And that's precisely where I am answering your question on "I'm not overestimating anything?". You act as though Kongo is going to have an easy time on top if he gets a takedown on one of the best wrestlers he's faced, and the first wrestler he's faced who is bigger than him. Kongo may get some stoppages on top, but it's typically against guys who are either subpar in general or subpar grapplers. I will say that if you look at how many takedowns Kongo has scored, it's tough to make an argument that he's that dangerous on the ground. As already mentioned, he gets takedowns often, the guy on bottom starts working back up, he gets them against the fence, back down quickly, and repeat.

This is why I played King Mo even though he was outsized against Kongo. It's really the first wrestler he's faced in a long time. Kongo has become NCAA Kongo in a lot of fights because he has a big advantage in wrestling - because he doesn't face wrestlers or grapplers. It's not because he's some great wrestler or that he has some super solid top game.
 
Oblivian said:
And that's precisely where I am answering your question on "I'm not overestimating anything?". You act as though Kongo is going to have an easy time on top if he gets a takedown on one of the best wrestlers he's faced, and the first wrestler he's faced who is bigger than him. Kongo may get some stoppages on top, but it's typically against guys who are either subpar in general or subpar grapplers. I will say that if you look at how many takedowns Kongo has scored, it's tough to make an argument that he's that dangerous on the ground. As already mentioned, he gets takedowns often, the guy on bottom starts working back up, he gets them against the fence, back down quickly, and repeat.

This is why I played King Mo even though he was outsized against Kongo. It's really the first wrestler he's faced in a long time. Kongo has become NCAA Kongo in a lot of fights because he has a big advantage in wrestling - because he doesn't face wrestlers or grapplers. It's not because he's some great wrestler or that he has some super solid top game.
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we have a miscommunication. i thought you were suggesting that i was saying kongo would get a takedown pretty easily. i wasn't.
 
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