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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Dec 29, 2017.
man i can't wait for lima-rory
I like Quinton "Rampage" Jackson at -145 over Chael Sonnen in the first bout of the heavyweight tournament. Chael is a blown up middleweight and Rampage has blown himself to a heavyweight. Rampage has good takedown defense and stand up ability to go with his power and if Chael can't get him down he'll likely quit against Rampage. Got it for 2.9 units to win 2.0.
I like Chael's speed advantage over Rampage and obviously his wrestling, and I bet against Chael when he fought Tito. Rampage has slowed down a lot and if Chael avoids the power shots I think round 2 and 3 are his. If Rampage was a dog I'd like that bet.
So lame this card is on the ufc Saturday ppv and not Friday
Rampage is not easy to take down, especially now that he's a 253 pound heavyweight. Even King Mo struggled to hold Rampage down or manage to score any damage and just eked out a decision in their last bout. I think this will be harder for a much more shot Chael. This card will also be held in California under new scoring criteria as well. I added more to Rampage at -150, now 5.9 units to win 4 units.
Yeah I agree with most of that and I don't really like to bet on Chael, the Tito fight was very odd to me and Chael seems like a guy who wouldn't mind being involved in fixed fights (major accusation I know, but it wouldn't surprise me).
My read on this fight is more of a fade on Rampage than any confidence in Chael, I probably won't bet this fight but will pay close attention to interviews from both fighters and the weigh in. Hopefully Chael's on some supplements and Rampage isn't taking this seriously lol but not enough for me to bet on yet.
I took rampage for 1u at -160
I think 1 decent shot from him and shale is gonna turtle
Already have 725 for 500 and 1500 for 1000 on Quinton
Already assuming he will be in shit shape. But IMO Chael is SHOT. And I can't imagine Chael having anything at HW
2 shot fighters but Rampage has the real heart of a fighter.
Easily a pass fight atm. Trusting Fatpage seems very irresponsible, but would need a slightly better Chael price to stab unless come weigh ins he looks not so undersized. Rampage is bloated as fuck now and after one successful td hes likely not getting back up without ref assistance.
You should watch the most recent Rampage fight like I just did to refresh my memory. Rampage was taken down three times in round one with ankle picks mostly in the second King Mo fight, but he was able to stand up each time. Then Mo just couldn't take him down in round 2 or 3 despite trying mightily. Rampage smartly used the cage to help keep himself up and stand up in round 1 and succeeding rounds. Matter of fact he used his size to throw Mo down to the canvas in round 2 and take Mo down in round 3 briefly. Chael ironically was commenting this fight and commented specifically on Rampage's anti-takedown strategy.
Why not wait for the ITD prop? Like you said. Chael most likely quits. No way he's getting KTFO by Rampage at this stage of his life. It's just not worth it to him to go out on his shield.
Very easy to picture these two huffing and puffing, while only throwing a few pawing strikes per minute, their way to a bland decision. The early minutes burning up as Sonnen attempts takedown after takedown, which are probably stuffed just due to sheer weight imbalance. The later minutes eaten away by a slow Rampage on the hunt.
I've given my opinion many times about what I consider to be the foolishness of only betting a fighter that you believe will win only via a prop and not also a moneyline bet. Usually I'm talking about an underdog, but in this case, Ramage was only -145 or -150 when I bet him, so that's low enough for me to play him straight as it could potentially go to a boring decision just like the second Rampage and King Mo fight, but with Chael probably having less success than King Mo.
Chael cut quite a bit to get to MW. Does anyone know what he's walking around at now? I would assume he's at least 220 lbs. I know Dolce used to claim he was "240 lbs and ripped", but I would guess that's Dolce being Dolce and exaggerating.
He's done multiple interviews saying he's in shape at 230 and hopes to be 220 on fight night. Fatpage will be around 260 I guess.
Any thoughts on the fight? The Rampage that fought Ishii would have troubles with Sonnen IMO.
What about the sonnen that fought tito?