Bellator 202 Budd vs Nogueira

I hammered Ducote at -225. Getting her at those odds with a MASSIVE grappling / wrestling advantage was a gift. I think Ducote should be in the -400-500 range.

Yeah, Arteaga does a lot of stuff on the ground that she only gets away with when fighting the skinnier girls. She had her back taken twice, sits up to create space and leaves her arm out - her opponents think for a split second about an armbar instead of holding her tight again, and Veta flips out. Very low level. Emily also does not have the big height and reach disadvantage like her previous fight, which she arguably should have won anyway.
 
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I remember watching Arteaga fight live and thinking she's a total scrublord. I favor Ducote heavily at the odds she's at right now.


I also like Honeycutt over the 40 year old Leo Leite at -170. Honeycutt just has more big fight experience. Leite has fought most of his career at LHW against opponents who have dropped to MW, not to mention the fact that all of his opponents have a combined record of 90-44. The exception of that record being Ryan Spann (14-5) and Moise Rimbon (25-11). I don't see Honeycutt wanting to take Leite down because of a submission threat, and he should have a clear and obvious advantage on the feet. Leite only has 2 TKO wins over the bums he's faced, and one of them was because of a knee to the groin that the ref missed.
Agreed, but I think the concern is that Honeycutt will mimic the Lovato Jr. fight, and since that's another BJJ guy, he'll lose handily. I don't think it's that simple. I think Honeycutt did not like what he saw on tape of Lovato on the feet, and didn't like what little he tasted in the cage, so he went to his instinct. I don't think Leite provides those threats at all. In fact, he's a shorter, less dangerous, older version of Lovato. I think if Leite doesn't get the takedown, he will lose, whereas Lovator was more of a double threat.
 
One bet for the card. Ducote/Budd parlay 3u for 2.8u.
 
Agreed, but I think the concern is that Honeycutt will mimic the Lovato Jr. fight, and since that's another BJJ guy, he'll lose handily. I don't think it's that simple. I think Honeycutt did not like what he saw on tape of Lovato on the feet, and didn't like what little he tasted in the cage, so he went to his instinct. I don't think Leite provides those threats at all. In fact, he's a shorter, less dangerous, older version of Lovato. I think if Leite doesn't get the takedown, he will lose, whereas Lovator was more of a double threat.
Lovato also looked like he had a lot of success keeping Honeycutt at range with kicks, and trying to land knees if Honeycutt got too close. Could that just be an excellent job of gameplanning from Lovato, or is that the blueprint to beat Honeycutt?

We will find out tonight. COMING UP NEXT!
 
For Bellator 202 tonight props I like Talita Nogueira ITD at +310 and Not Valentin Moldavsky ITD at -115.
 
I remember watching Arteaga fight live and thinking she's a total scrublord. I favor Ducote heavily at the odds she's at right now.

Betting against Veta too.
The ground advantage is way too much. I think Emily is also more athletic.


Also Dantas usually only loses to wrestlers.
 
Betting against Veta too.
The ground advantage is way too much. I think Emily is also more athletic.


Also Dantas usually only loses to wrestlers.
I just remember Veta looking like some scrub brawler who should be fighting on the undercard of the old Extreme Challenge cards from the early 2000's.
 
I just remember Veta looking like some scrub brawler who should be fighting on the undercard of the old Extreme Challenge cards from the early 2000's.

It's WMMA. It's like less than 10 years old haha.

I've actually rolled with her when she was a blue belt. She was honestly decent for a chick but Emily is much better.
I probably sound hella sexist but on average chicks are not that good at bjj especially in Idaho. We have no gabi Garcia's or derns here.
 
I don't understand playing Dantas as a favorite. Michael can take rounds on the feet imo.

I have two small equal bets on Mayday and Leite. Nothing really jumps off the page for me. I like Daniel in tomorrow's headliner so will most likely play that as well.
 
I'm on Nog, Dantas, Honeycutt, and James.
 
I'm on Nog, Dantas, Honeycutt, and James.
I accidentally talked myself out of playing Honeycutt lol. I know I'm going to be better off leaving that fight alone.

I stand by what I said about the line being correct, I just don't have as much confidence in Honeycutt as I did 2 hours ago. Not sure how I even got here lol.
 
Lot money coming to Talita Nogueira now... wtf
 
Lot money coming to Talita Nogueira now... wtf
Budd was easily taken down in her last fight vs Boxer Blencowe.. feels close to a 50/50 fight imo Nog opening at +280 was madness
 
And yeah Budd has dropped from -215 to -145 in the last few hours. Any injuries we should know about?
 
I like to known too. Bellator live stream only say, 'TONIGHT'S PRELIMS WILL BEGIN SHORTLY.'
'Shortly' means anywhere from 1 min to 6 hr ....lol.
I think maybe even Bellator don't know the start time for prelim or fight order, just have to get the main card on track for tv.
 
Bellator 202 Risk $1152.50

Talita Nogueira (+280) vs Julia Budd $100.00 for $280.00
Talita Nogueira wins inside distance (+310) $50.00 for $155.00
Talita Nogueira/Julia Budd won’t go 5 round distance (+145) $100.00 for $145.00

Eduardo Dantas (-145) vs Michael McDonald $145.00 for $100.00
Eduardo Dantas (-150) vs Michael McDonald $150.00 for $100.00
Eduardo Dantas (-150) vs Michael McDonald $150.00 for $100.00
Eduardo Dantas/Michael McDonald won’t go 3 round distance (+185) $100.00 for $185.00

Leo Leite (+205) vs Chris Honeycutt $100.00 for $205.00

Not Valentin Moldavsky inside distance (-115) vs Ernest James $57.50 for $50.00

Veta Arteaga (+345) vs Emily Ducote $100.00 for $345.00

Gerald Harris (+155) vs Yaroslav Amosov $100.00 for $155.00
 

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