Boxing Discussion VIII

ApplesVild said:
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Why is the AJ/Ruiz fight happening in Saudi Arabia? Is either guy in the Country yet and if they are how long have they been there?

From interviews it sounds like AJ has upped his sparring for this camp and he feels like that was part of the problem first go round. With big names, and especially big names who have big fights coming up, you have to question how much sparring is happening and how hard are the sessions.

All the pressure is really on AJ. His career, his name, his sponsors. It's going to feel like the world is watching him and waiting for him to trip up again. Who knows where his head is, he's generally open in his interviews and from what I have heard he sounds very frustrated with himself and the whole situation. Who's to say how this motivates him.

Physically he's slimmed down, that says he wants to be looser, move more and potentially look to go longer. In terms of style match up that would be the gameplan, stay long, keep on the outside and avoide the fire fights.

Ruiz wants the inside, slip to the inside and throw hooks, he wants the same fight he got the first time. He got knocked down, took some big punches, but that is part of the game he is playing, it's to be expected.

Both men will have changed things, in their training, their gameplan and their mindsets but these big changes aren't always for the best. Overthinking, over analysing, second guessing can all cause more problems.

I have to think that physically AJ has the advantage, his reach and length and on paper there is a clear strategy - Use those tools, pick at Ruiz with single shots and don't engage in anything close quarters where it can be avoided.

Ruiz has the experience, a career of fighting men who are taller and longer than him, it's nothing new. He has the belts now and more big pay days ahead with a win but he has the comfort of the focus not being on him, everyone is looking at AJ.

Value is on Ruiz as the dog, but an AJ by decision play is also a great bet.

I'm far from having a good boxing knowledge, probably better to bet it live, let them settle in for 3/4 rounds and see what we get.
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Glad to see somebody who watches boxing often mirror similar sentiment on how this goes down. I do also reckon it'll takes a few rounds maybe 4-6rds before we see any risks taken from both of them, or at least AJ as I'm sure Ruiz will have no problem engaging in earlier rounds to push the pace.

I was considering a smaller play on the over - maybe 7.5 @ 1.83 because I reckon it'll be quite tentative. AJ been in Saudi for about a week, Ruiz only a few days ago by the looks of it. I don't know, will the climate even have much of an effect on this?
 
Rematches go the same way like 86% of the time so i dont really get why Ruiz has such mad odds. People talk about AJ getting KOd in sparring 2 weeks before the match but in MMA it has never been good idea to bet on injuries but maybe its not the same in boxing. Also seems like people forgot Ruiz came in with 2 weeks notice.
 
Red_2 said:
Glad to see somebody who watches boxing often mirror similar sentiment on how this goes down. I do also reckon it'll takes a few rounds maybe 4-6rds before we see any risks taken from both of them, or at least AJ as I'm sure Ruiz will have no problem engaging in earlier rounds to push the pace.

I was considering a smaller play on the over - maybe 7.5 @ 1.83 because I reckon it'll be quite tentative. AJ been in Saudi for about a week, Ruiz only a few days ago by the looks of it. I don't know, will the climate even have much of an effect on this?
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The flight, the heat, the out of the ordinary sleeping arrangements, food and training facilities should all have some effect on both men. Obviously the hard work is done, this week is really going to be spent getting loose, drilling and adjusting to the changes.. And lots of media obligations.

AJ has had a lot of media obligations for the majority of his fights in the UK, this will easily be the most Ruiz has ever had to deal with. Some guys love it, some hate it and it drains them. Some guys lose focus due to the attention, it all becomes about the media, the spectacle.

These kind of things are all unknowns though. I generally try to go under the assumption both guys are getting into the ring at their best.

They say style match ups rarely change, rematches usually go the same way as the first fight but that doesn't just mean the final result, that means round ro round. Who was winning the rounds? Who was implementing their gameplan? Who was tiring more? Who was getting hit more?
 
This fight is a different level of opponent and pressure but Ruiz came to New Zealand to fight Parker and handled the travel really well. I thought he was robbed of the decision.
I think 80% of the pressure has to be on Joshua and this fight will show how much heart and champion quality he has
 
Cockadoodle said:
This fight is a different level of opponent and pressure but Ruiz came to New Zealand to fight Parker and handled the travel really well. I thought he was robbed of the decision.
I think 80% of the pressure has to be on Joshua and this fight will show how much heart and champion quality he has
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I don't know the ins and outs of AJ's history but I have never really seen him as a 'fighter', he reminds me more Eubanks Jr. Not it terms of growing up rich and protected, but I just don't see him as the guy struggling from day one. I'm pretty sure he went to boarding school, then straight into a top boxing club, Olympics training, pro. It's hard work but it's not coming from nothing.
 
Ruiz has more to gain from a real camp this time around. Last time he got what, 8 days to prepare? AJ had a full camp last time

AJ Claims he had a panic attack before the fight; how's he going to handle this time knowing he's already been lamped by his opponent. Rumours he got KO'd in training as well. I like the over, Ruiz ML and maybe a sprinkle on Ruiz decision at +1600. Granted he's going to need to dominate to win on the cards but I can see a tentative fight from both given the stakes and Ruiz throws more fluent and longer combinations which judges may notice more?
 
ApplesVild said:
I don't know the ins and outs of AJ's history but I have never really seen him as a 'fighter', he reminds me more Eubanks Jr. Not it terms of growing up rich and protected, but I just don't see him as the guy struggling from day one. I'm pretty sure he went to boarding school, then straight into a top boxing club, Olympics training, pro. It's hard work but it's not coming from nothing.
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Agree, I def hold a big question mark over Joshua's head whether he has the grit and determination to be one of the greats. Obviously all the physical attributes are there but like you said I am not convinced he is actually a fighter.
Happy to be proven wrong in the weekend, until then I'm on the 3/1 underdog who will fight to the end.
 
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if the ref didn stop it in the seventh round would be a 10-8
 
AJ by decision £70 for £350

AJ by majority decision (exact method bet) £10 for £410
 
Jesus, unlikely but those majority decision lines have crazy value. Still sticking with AJ dec @5.00 and sprinkle on the maj dec.
 
3U on O7.5 @ 1.83
Likely to be looking at fight goes distance +250 & some decision props.

Hrgovic/Molina - do people see this going over 4.5? He's getting guys out there as quickly as he should but the tough Kevin Johnson took him the full 8. Molina sometimes looks somewhat durable then others gets folded early. Over sits at +115 here
 
burge13 said:
Ruiz has more to gain from a real camp this time around. Last time he got what, 8 days to prepare? AJ had a full camp last time
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No, Ruiz fought on April 20th. Exactly when news Miller failed the tests broke and AJ needs a new opponent. Ruiz confirmed as opponent May 1st. Fight June 1st. So Ruiz was coming off a training camp and easy fight, should already have been well conditioned and then had a month to prepare for AJ. AJ was preparing for Miller a different style of opponent. AJ has more to gain from a full camp because he is less of a natural fighter and needs specific sparring for his opponent.

That said I like every betting outcome except AJ by KO which I think is way too short at +100 (was -138 when I started betting the fight), I think AJ KO should be +400 based on the talk he is going to box cautiously behind the jab and the way Ruiz took the punch which decked him and then the right hand after he got up, looks like he's got an iron chin.

I also make Ruiz a slight favourite overall. The big unknown is whether something was wrong with AJ last time.
 
Created a nice little $0.00 to win $220.00 free roll opportunity for myself with prices varying wildly between books after line movement.

D'Mitrius Ballard (-225) vs Yamaguchi Falcao $225.00 for $100.00
D'Mitrius Ballard (-225) vs Yamaguchi Falcao $225.00 for $100.00
Yamaguchi Falcao (+335) vs D'Mitrius Ballard $200.00 for $670.00
 
Red_2 said:
Jesus, unlikely but those majority decision lines have crazy value. Still sticking with AJ dec @5.00 and sprinkle on the maj dec.
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That's really the best way to play those lines, just sprinkle a little on a few likely outcomes and maybe you'll get lucky.

If AJ does go the route people are expecting, boxing long and picking at Ruiz then it is a possibility that the majority hits
 
On Ulysse KO and late stoppage - Rounds 9 +1400 through 12 at +2700. Wanted the opener on Ulysse which was -240 but by the time it opened here it was -900.

Has anyone got thoughts on the Aussie card tonight? Tszyu goes distance at +100 looks alright but not bet it yet. Broadhurst +400 perhaps?
 
burge13 said:
On Ulysse KO and late stoppage - Rounds 9 +1400 through 12 at +2700. Wanted the opener on Ulysse which was -240 but by the time it opened here it was -900.

Has anyone got thoughts on the Aussie card tonight? Tszyu goes distance at +100 looks alright but not bet it yet. Broadhurst +400 perhaps?
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Although it's not really boxing, I'm on Darcy Lussick to finish that old fart Justin Hodges
 
Cockadoodle said:
Although it's not really boxing, I'm on Darcy Lussick to finish that old fart Justin Hodges
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Saw that line flipped but didn't know enough to bet either. You have to think this is set up for Hodges to win and fight Gallen though...
 
burge13 said:
On Ulysse KO and late stoppage - Rounds 9 +1400 through 12 at +2700. Wanted the opener on Ulysse which was -240 but by the time it opened here it was -900.

Has anyone got thoughts on the Aussie card tonight? Tszyu goes distance at +100 looks alright but not bet it yet. Broadhurst +400 perhaps?
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i'm going with FDGTD, I think that a finish is very probably, Tszyu want to finish.
 
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