International Brexit News & Discussion v7: British Parliament Rejects Theresa May's Brexit Deal (Again)

Tory former minister suggests he would vote with Labour in no confidence motion to block no-deal Brexit

This morning the Tory Brexiter Jacob Rees-Mogg said that pro-Europeans in the party posed a much greater threat to Theresa May and her majority than Brexiters like himself. We know have the first piece of evidence that he’s right.

Nick Boles, a former minister, has just posted these two messages on Twitter. He is saying that, if Theresa May decided to opt for a no deal (as she implies she will, if her deal gets voted down - although she is reluctant to confirm that with 100% certainty), he will resign the party whip and “vote in any way necessary” to stop that happening. That clearly implies that he would be willing to vote with Labour in a confidence motion.

This is interesting because, if you had to draw up a list of Tory MPs likely to sacrifice their careers in the party in the interests of torpedoing a no-deal Brexit, Boles would not be an obvious candidate for the shortlist. He did vote remain in the referendum, but then he managed Michael Gove’s doomed leadership campaign (not a job that would appeal to most diehard remainers) and he has not been a prominent pro-European rebel in the Commons. He has also been associated recently with the “Norway for now” plan, which at one point was floated as a stepping stone to a Canada-style Brexit in the long term (ie, a fairly hard Brexit).

If Boles feels this way, then there is a good chance that at least six other Tories do, too. And that would be about the number needed for May to lose a confidence vote.






Source: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...b072dc52e5f7f6#block-5c192835e4b072dc52e5f7f6
 
What a no deal means for logistics in the UK.

 
It's good to have preparation for all possibilities, but I still don't believe that they would come to a No-Deal. That's a Lose-Lose for everyone involved.

 
Arkain2K said:
It's good to have preparation for all possibilities, but I still don't believe that they would come to a No-Deal. That's a Lose-Lose for everyone involved.

Click to expand...


Except this is all a Tory party civil war on European involvement and as such what's good for the country isn't really up for discussion.
 
Arkain2K said:
It's good to have preparation for all possibilities, but I still don't believe that they would come to a No-Deal. That's a Lose-Lose for everyone involved.

Click to expand...



kinda. it certainly would prevent anyone from trying to leave the EU again.
 
Arkain2K said:
It's good to have preparation for all possibilities, but I still don't believe that they would come to a No-Deal. That's a Lose-Lose for everyone involved.
Click to expand...

Think about it. You are the British PM, on the evening of March 28th. No agreement from parliament for the deal. What do you do? Do you deliver hard Brexit? Or do you tell the EU 'Sorry guys guys, we won't be leaving for now after all'. Because that is what you can do legally, it will be your choice and your responsibility. Do you? You can then, again, invoke Article 50 so that you will leave the EU in 2021. And try to re-negotiate (lol).
 
1) May would like to introduce a 30k pounds salary threshold for EU immigrants post-Brexit. Intense pressure from businesses to have a significantly lower threshold:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...ill-be-forced-to-back-down-over-migrant-curbs

2) Michael Gove channelling the inner Captain Obvious: "Food prices will rise after hard Brexit"

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...exit-will-raise-food-prices-says-michael-gove

3) Also in the link from #2:

The UK exports 91% of its recyclable waste, and Gove admitted that this would be subject to tariffs of 12% in the event of no deal if the UK was granted third country status. The EU could also raise its standards to refuse UK waste – like China did last year – which effectively ended imports of plastic waste from the UK and other countries, raising concerns about stockpiling

Gove said: “It is the nature of no deal that the EU could change the rules, in particular ones that might create new barriers for UK business.”
 
DuNlQC_WwAAwvCY.jpg:large


 
I work for transport company,.....we have a lot of trucks going across Europe and my company is shitting it. Everything will be much more expensive and we expect a lot of people to go
 
New poll among Labour party members:

  • 72% believe Corbyn should back second referendum
  • Only 18% oppose Labour campaigning for a second referendum
  • 88% would vote Remain in case of such a vote

There is a slight difference for members vs. supporters of the party. 89% of members believe the Brexit vote was a mistake, whereas 73% of supporters think that.
 
No One Is Ready for a No-Deal Brexit
By pretending to prepare for calamity, the government is deluding itself — and its citizens.

By
Editorial Board
2. Januar 2019, 08:30 MEZ
1400x-1.jpg

Wrong again. Photographer: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

With Brexit negotiations paralyzed, and fewer than 100 days till the clock runs out, it’s worth remembering that the U.K. government — despite its assurances — remains entirely unready for a no-deal exit from the European Union. Pretending otherwise helps no one.

In recent weeks, the government has started making some frantic preparations. It has directed 2 billion pounds to no-deal provisions, hired some 10,000 staffers, and redeployed hundreds of civil servants to help shorthanded departments. Rather alarmingly, it’s also putting about 3,500 troops on standby.

All this amounts to an expensive bluff. From the beginning, the government has tried to use the prospect of a chaotic exit as negotiating leverage — “No deal is better than a bad deal,” as Prime Minister Theresa May has said. It was never terribly convincing, not least because the U.K. was doing almost nothing to prepare for it. To pretend to get serious now, with a mere three months to go, is simply delusional. EU negotiators know full well that Britain could never accept the consequences of no deal — and these expensive preparations won’t induce them into new concessions.

It bears repeating that a no-deal exit would be a disaster. Overnight, customs and regulatory barriers would rise. Licenses and approvals issued in Britain would no longer apply across the border. Supply chains would freeze up. Food distribution could break down. Growth would crater, the pound could plummet, prices might soar and unemployment could double. That’s to say nothing of non-economic consequences: U.K. police could lose access to tools for tracking terrorists, British planes and pilots could be grounded, hospitals could run outof medicines, and garbage could pile up — not to mention dead bodies.

Dire as these looming calamities are, the government has offered hardly any real details about how it intends to mitigate them. Its plans to deal with drug and food shortages have mostly been hashed out in secret. What ideas it has aired publicly — chartering ships on a mass scale to deliver critical supplies, for instance — have been unnervingly unrealistic.

It has also done next to nothing to help businesses. It started publishing formal guidance on a no-deal exit only in August, thereby giving companies a mere seven months to prepare. Executives say they’re being left in the dark. Small businesses report being ignored entirely. Fully 94 percent of firms in one survey complained about a lack of information.

Even where more robust planning has started, the results are no more encouraging. Take border controls. In a no-deal scenario, the U.K. would need to process some 260 million customs declarations a year, compared to about 55 million currently. A recent audit found that 11 out of 12 critical IT systems intended to handle this added deluge won’t be ready in time, nor could the needed infrastructure or staff be in place. As a result, the government would likely forgo regulatory and safety checks on many goods coming from the EU, a situation it concedes is “less than optimal.”

A better approach to all of this would be honesty. The time for bluffing is up. No government could willingly accept a calamity on the scale of a no-deal Brexit, and May should simply say so. If Parliament rejects her Brexit deal in January — as in all likelihood it will — she should push immediately to delay the Article 50 process and stop the countdown. That would allow time for either new elections or, far better, a second referendum that would let the public finally break this deadlock.

To continue with Potemkin no-deal preparations will only compound the damage. Vast sums are being spent to sustain an illusion that isn’t fooling anyone. Meanwhile, no progress is being made on more realistic options — and the clock ticks and ticks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...xit-despite-preparations-the-u-k-is-not-ready
 
Trump will swoop in and make a massive deal with UK.
 
JDragon said:
No One Is Ready for a No-Deal Brexit
By pretending to prepare for calamity, the government is deluding itself — and its citizens.

By
Editorial Board
2. Januar 2019, 08:30 MEZ
1400x-1.jpg

Wrong again. Photographer: Jack Taylor/Getty Images

With Brexit negotiations paralyzed, and fewer than 100 days till the clock runs out, it’s worth remembering that the U.K. government — despite its assurances — remains entirely unready for a no-deal exit from the European Union. Pretending otherwise helps no one.

In recent weeks, the government has started making some frantic preparations. It has directed 2 billion pounds to no-deal provisions, hired some 10,000 staffers, and redeployed hundreds of civil servants to help shorthanded departments. Rather alarmingly, it’s also putting about 3,500 troops on standby.

All this amounts to an expensive bluff. From the beginning, the government has tried to use the prospect of a chaotic exit as negotiating leverage — “No deal is better than a bad deal,” as Prime Minister Theresa May has said. It was never terribly convincing, not least because the U.K. was doing almost nothing to prepare for it. To pretend to get serious now, with a mere three months to go, is simply delusional. EU negotiators know full well that Britain could never accept the consequences of no deal — and these expensive preparations won’t induce them into new concessions.

It bears repeating that a no-deal exit would be a disaster. Overnight, customs and regulatory barriers would rise. Licenses and approvals issued in Britain would no longer apply across the border. Supply chains would freeze up. Food distribution could break down. Growth would crater, the pound could plummet, prices might soar and unemployment could double. That’s to say nothing of non-economic consequences: U.K. police could lose access to tools for tracking terrorists, British planes and pilots could be grounded, hospitals could run outof medicines, and garbage could pile up — not to mention dead bodies.

Dire as these looming calamities are, the government has offered hardly any real details about how it intends to mitigate them. Its plans to deal with drug and food shortages have mostly been hashed out in secret. What ideas it has aired publicly — chartering ships on a mass scale to deliver critical supplies, for instance — have been unnervingly unrealistic.

It has also done next to nothing to help businesses. It started publishing formal guidance on a no-deal exit only in August, thereby giving companies a mere seven months to prepare. Executives say they’re being left in the dark. Small businesses report being ignored entirely. Fully 94 percent of firms in one survey complained about a lack of information.

Even where more robust planning has started, the results are no more encouraging. Take border controls. In a no-deal scenario, the U.K. would need to process some 260 million customs declarations a year, compared to about 55 million currently. A recent audit found that 11 out of 12 critical IT systems intended to handle this added deluge won’t be ready in time, nor could the needed infrastructure or staff be in place. As a result, the government would likely forgo regulatory and safety checks on many goods coming from the EU, a situation it concedes is “less than optimal.”

A better approach to all of this would be honesty. The time for bluffing is up. No government could willingly accept a calamity on the scale of a no-deal Brexit, and May should simply say so. If Parliament rejects her Brexit deal in January — as in all likelihood it will — she should push immediately to delay the Article 50 process and stop the countdown. That would allow time for either new elections or, far better, a second referendum that would let the public finally break this deadlock.

To continue with Potemkin no-deal preparations will only compound the damage. Vast sums are being spent to sustain an illusion that isn’t fooling anyone. Meanwhile, no progress is being made on more realistic options — and the clock ticks and ticks.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/a...xit-despite-preparations-the-u-k-is-not-ready
Click to expand...
look at those fresh faced young people
 
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