International Brexit News & Discussion v7: British Parliament Rejects Theresa May's Brexit Deal (Again)

[Fronk]

How are you separating the 2? I don't want to put words in your mouth but it reads like you're saying that it's okay if this hurts the jobs so long as the downward pressure on wages is relieved?

Fewer jobs but more money per job.

I think it's more related to sectors like construction where polish, baltic etc. workers will do the job for a fraction of the price of a domestic worker, and can because of the freedom of the EU. It's good for the client of course, but not so much for lets say english carpenters, who still has to face a higher cost of living while competing for the same jobs. Atleast that's the way it has been in Sweden. You could argue that this also leads to people building more in general, have more things renovated, but it doesn't really help the english carpenter.

 

[Teen Wolf]

Non-binding legal opinion from the ECJ's advocate general: the UK can unilaterally cancel Brexit:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-46428579

Just cancel it. Come back with an agreed planned with all parties what Brexit actually means and then vote again.

 

[panamaican]

I think it's more related to sectors like construction where polish, baltic etc. workers will do the job for a fraction of the price of a domestic worker, and can because of the freedom of the EU. It's good for the client of course, but not so much for lets say english carpenters, who still has to face a higher cost of living while competing for the same jobs. Atleast that's the way it has been in Sweden. You could argue that this also leads to people building more in general, have more things renovated, but it doesn't really help the english carpenter.

Sure, the English carpenter will certainly be able to charge more for his work since there will be less competition. But since it comes with a reduced demand, I'm not sure how this helps the English carpenter.

Brexit is already causing a slowdown in the UK population growth. This means less demand for new construction and thus fewer jobs for those carpenters.

 

[DarkneT]

I think it's more related to sectors like construction where polish, baltic etc. workers will do the job for a fraction of the price of a domestic worker, and can because of the freedom of the EU. It's good for the client of course, but not so much for lets say english carpenters, who still has to face a higher cost of living while competing for the same jobs. Atleast that's the way it has been in Sweden. You could argue that this also leads to people building more in general, have more things renovated, but it doesn't really help the english carpenter.

Speaking as a carpenter
Never seen it

Other jobs sure, groundworkers are always typically Romanian and Painters

Very rare I see Polish workers in other trades, plumbers, electricians and carpenters I don’t think I’ve come across a foreign worker in decades

Maybe it’s the circles I mix in but it’s rare to see these days
It’s rare to see any workers these days of any decent.. bricklayers and plasterers mostly

 

[DarkneT]

Sure, the English carpenter will certainly be able to charge more for his work since there will be less competition. But since it comes with a reduced demand, I'm not sure how this helps the English carpenter.

Brexit is already causing a slowdown in the UK population growth. This means less demand for new construction and thus fewer jobs for those carpenters.

Speaking as a carpenter
There’s absolutely nothing slowing down from our end
The lack of houses in the UK is getting worse and worse
I’ve never known it this busy in all of my 17 years, a subcontractor I work with who is 61 and has been building houses since he was 16 (employs 60 plus men) says this is the busiest it’s been since the 80’s

Literally have been doing 6 days a week since April and could have been 7 if I’d wanted it, and honestly we work at a strange place that build a tough target imo
Expensive houses aimed at high earners
The budget builders must be absolutely flat out in this economy

Bricklayers and plasterers respectively right now can be earning doctors wages, there’s no one to do the work

 

[panamaican]

Speaking as a carpenter
There’s absolutely nothing slowing down from our end
The lack of houses in the UK is getting worse and worse
I’ve never known it this busy in all of my 17 years, a subcontractor I work with who is 61 and has been building houses since he was 16 (employs 60 plus men) says this is the busiest it’s been since the 80’s

Literally have been doing 6 days a week since April and could have been 7 if I’d wanted it, and honestly we work at a strange place that build a tough target imo
Expensive houses aimed at high earners
The budget builders must be absolutely flat out in this economy

Bricklayers and plasterers respectively right now can be earning doctors wages, there’s no one to do the work

Sure, right now. But the data coming in says that the population growth is slowing.

The current state isn't going to change overnight and I wouldn't suggest that it would. But looking long term, you're going to see a population slowdown, which will be coupled with reduced birthrates (which means less need for bigger homes per family), and your current housing shortage stops being a shortage.

I'm talking mid to long term. I don't expect any changes in the short term.

 

[DarkneT]

Sure, right now. But the data coming in says that the population growth is slowing.

The current state isn't going to change overnight and I wouldn't suggest that it would. But looking long term, you're going to see a population slowdown, which will be coupled with reduced birthrates (which means less need for bigger homes per family), and your current housing shortage stops being a shortage.

I'm talking mid to long term. I don't expect any changes in the short term.

You know this sick crystal ball of yours ..


Is Ortega gonna dust Holloway this weekend? I’ll drop my mortgage on it

 

[panamaican]

You know this sick crystal ball of yours ..


Is Ortega gonna dust Holloway this weekend? I’ll drop my mortgage on it

Not my crystal ball. The population growth numbers came out over the summer. The birth rate numbers have been out for a while.

Your population growth was the lowest it's been in a decade. And that's just in anticipation of Brexit. Once it's finished, the growth will stay depressed relative to the current figures because the rules simply won't allow more people to come live there.

 

[JDragon]

Not my crystal ball. The population growth numbers came out over the summer. The birth rate numbers have been out for a while.

Your population growth was the lowest it's been in a decade. And that's just in anticipation of Brexit. Once it's finished, the growth will stay depressed relative to the current figures because the rules simply won't allow more people to come live there.

It's not just people though. It's urbanization and it's individualization (less people per household) too.

 

[DarkneT]

Not my crystal ball. The population growth numbers came out over the summer. The birth rate numbers have been out for a while.

Your population growth was the lowest it's been in a decade. And that's just in anticipation of Brexit. Once it's finished, the growth will stay depressed relative to the current figures because the rules simply won't allow more people to come live there.

Shall I just off myself and have done with it then

 

[Fronk]

Speaking as a carpenter
Never seen it

Other jobs sure, groundworkers are always typically Romanian and Painters

Very rare I see Polish workers in other trades, plumbers, electricians and carpenters I don’t think I’ve come across a foreign worker in decades

Maybe it’s the circles I mix in but it’s rare to see these days
It’s rare to see any workers these days of any decent.. bricklayers and plasterers mostly

Interesting, becuase that has certainly been the case in Sweden. There are bunch of polish contractors right now in the building next to mine for example that are building a new apartment. Then again Sweden is much closer to Poland and Eastern Europe in general. I find it especially curious since there actually are alot of polish immigrants in the UK.

 

[DarkneT]

Interesting, becuase that has certainly been the case in Sweden. There are bunch of polish contractors right now in the building next to mine for example that are building a new apartment. Then again Sweden is much closer to Poland and Eastern Europe in general. I find it especially curious since there actually are alot of polish immigrants in the UK.

Taxi drivers mostly in my area but we build high end houses
Maybe the budget stuff there may be foreigners
Perhaps

 

[panamaican]

Shall I just off myself and have done with it then

Of course not. I'm talking about the industry on a large scale, on an individual scale - that's up to you and your hustle, just like always.

 

[panamaican]

It's not just people though. It's urbanization and it's individualization (less people per household) too.

I'm not sure if you're agreeing with me or saying that individualization will mitigate the effect?

 

[Armbars]

For those interested;

https://assets.publishing.service.g..._the_Protocol_on_Ireland-Northern_Ireland.pdf

 

[JDragon]

Sorry, only saw this now, somehow missed the notification.

My point was that it's not just about the number of people, it's about the fact that people want to live in the cities and that less people live in one household than in earlier times. These are continuing trends. So even if the total number of people declines, there still may be a need to provide new apartments in urban areas and therefore a market to do so.

 

[JDragon]

@panamaican forgot to quote

 

[panamaican]

Sorry, only saw this now, somehow missed the notification.

My point was that it's not just about the number of people, it's about the fact that people want to live in the cities and that less people live in one household than in earlier times. These are continuing trends. So even if the total number of people declines, there still may be a need to provide new apartments in urban areas and therefore a market to do so.

I agree that less people live in one household than before and more people live in cities. But, as you stated, it's not a new trend. It's been the trend for a quite a few years already. Brexit isn't going to change that in either direction. A decline in population and population growth is the only new post-Brexit effect. Accordingly, the only new impact will be a slowdown in housing demand, both new and used, owners and rentals.

What I don't know is how surprised the construction industry was by the Brexit vote and how far out they were with projects. Pre-Brexit vote, they were building new construction based on the old population assumptions. When the Brexit vote hit, everyone knew that it was going to result in a population decline.

So how many projects were mid-build or in early stage construction? Because that's going to be a better indicator how much extra supply is going to be on the market post-Brexit. And that extra supply is going to tell us how much demand we should anticipate for more construction.

To that end, London housing prices have seen a notable dip in 2018 and we should expect it to continue into 2019 as the population situation settles into whatever the new, smaller, normal will be.

 

[7437]

So we are at no deal or no brexit? is that right?

 

[xcvbn]