Does Aljo have a chance?

Substance Abuse said:
It would be hilarious if he won but I do think Yan is going to.

With that said, Aljo was right to take the DQ if the knee altered his ability to compete. Unfortunately he milked it with horrible acting and took it too far. Instead, he should have told the doctor and the ref that his vision was blurry or that he had lost his equilibrium, rather than put on that performance. At the end of the day, Yan threw an illegal, DQ worthy knee and paid the price. Does it suck as a fight result? 100%, but it's the rules.
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Couldn't have said it better myself. The fact it was YAN HIMSELF who performed an illegal move that was incredibly stupid (something that when almost every other fighter does, is roundly criticized) seems to be completely glossed over.
 
Of course he has a chance, but I think it was more than clear from the first fight who the better fighter was.

You can argue that Aljo maybe won the first 2 rounds of the first fight, but even so, it was more than clear that everything he threw at Yan was entirely ineffective. Outstriking or outworking someone doesn't really mean anything if your shots do basically no damage, meanwhile everything you get hit by looks to be doing quite a lot.

Aljo's best 2 rounds didn't really mean anything at all. He gassed himself out throwing everything he could at Yan, and everything he had wasn't enough to even phase Yan. Sure, he can pace himself better this time, but that's just likely gonna result in Yan taking over even earlier.
 
Substance Abuse said:
Yes. It's a fight.

Judges are also idiots so anything can happen.

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Reasonable scorecards. Yan looked like the more consistent fighter and the vibe was that the tide was turning, but up until that point, it was a close fight in terms of numbers and scoring criteria. Aljo kept it close with his frantic pace and Yan taking his time.

Yeah by the end Aljo looked gassed as shit and Yan looked fresher than ever, but what actually happened in the fight? People need to open their eyes.

The shocking part was the grappling aspect. I suspect that's what lead so many of you to blindness.
 
Well it's fighting, crazier things have happened. Aljo's conditioning will probably be a key factor.

If he's not able to outgrind and overwhelm Petr, he's toast. He's getting his ass whooped in a moderately paced technical fight.
 
What I'll say is that all the trolling can only play to his advantage. Not saying it will, but Yan's a hothead, and if Aljo has a window, it may exist as a result of Yan fighting angry as opposed to being calculated like he normally is.

He obviously is yet to face a takedown machine like Merab, but regardless, Yan has proven nearly impossible to grapple. Aljo would be wise to only utilize takedown attempts when Yan might not be as privy to them. His striking foundation is grounded in irregularity, and this is good against someone like Yan who's a master of making adjustments. However, it requires speed and endurance. Wasting energy chasing takedowns will undo Aljo in a hurry. If I'm him, I'm trying to keep the rounds close and frequently giving Yan different looks. Throw out a false tell or two, and then when Yan tries to capitalize on it, try countering with a spinning elbow or something.

It'll take the performance of Aljo's life and less than the best we've seen from Yan, and maybe he can win a close decision.
 
DougieJones said:
Couldn't have said it better myself. The fact it was YAN HIMSELF who performed an illegal move that was incredibly stupid (something that when almost every other fighter does, is roundly criticized) seems to be completely glossed over.
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It is Yan's fault. I'm not contesting that by any means. Aljo should have dropped the act though.
 
Yan's favored for a reason, but Aljo has a path for sure.

I think the biggest adjustment he needs to make for this fight is he needs to be a lot more patient and try to make the most out of all five rounds. Yan has a reputation for being a slow starter, so maybe pick some spots earlier in the fight to score points on Yan and win those early rounds. Later in the fight, be defensive, look for counters, and pick careful moments for shooting takedowns and creating grappling exchanges. Even though Yan out-wrestled him in their first fight, I think Aljo can still win in grappling exchanges if he's careful with picking his shots and comes in with a good gameplan.

Short version: his needs to be make this fight boring and win on points. Otherwise, I think Yan finishes him inside three rounds.
 
DougieJones said:
Couldn't have said it better myself. The fact it was YAN HIMSELF who performed an illegal move that was incredibly stupid (something that when almost every other fighter does, is roundly criticized) seems to be completely glossed over.
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Yan throws knees from there all the time as people rise up.Watch is pre UFC fights. I think in the heat of the moment he screwed up and misunderstood his corner thinking he was good to throw it.

It's still a foul and most people agree it was stupid. it's Aljo performance after and the subsequent posts after. He was literally calling to fight anyone but Yan for months after.

He has the option to be get paid to beat the crap out of the guy that fouled him and wanted to fight everyone but Yan and now is calling him a steroid cheat. Aljo doesn't think he can win this fight sadly.
 
He was winning the first fight and Yan had to cheat to try and win
 
Substance Abuse said:
It would be hilarious if he won but I do think Yan is going to.

With that said, Aljo was right to take the DQ if the knee altered his ability to compete. Unfortunately he milked it with horrible acting and took it too far. Instead, he should have told the doctor and the ref that his vision was blurry or that he had lost his equilibrium, rather than put on that performance. At the end of the day, Yan threw an illegal, DQ worthy knee and paid the price. Does it suck as a fight result? 100%, but it's the rules.
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No,never!
 
maximus__ said:
Yan throws knees from there all the time as people rise up.Watch is pre UFC fights. I think in the heat of the moment he screwed up and misunderstood his corner thinking he was good to throw it.

It's still a foul and most people agree it was stupid. it's Aljo performance after and the subsequent posts after. He was literally calling to fight anyone but Yan for months after.

He has the option to be get paid to beat the crap out of the guy that fouled him and wanted to fight everyone but Yan and now is calling him a steroid cheat. Aljo doesn't think he can win this fight sadly.
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Oh I absolutely think Yan will win and agree with the Sterling criticisms, I just would love to see the meltdown if Aljo finishes him or something lol
 
DougieJones said:
Oh I absolutely think Yan will win and agree with the Sterling criticisms, I just would love to see the meltdown if Aljo finishes him or something lol
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I would except I think Aljo would then go on to hold arguably the best division in the UFC up for months trying to fight Cejudo, Cruz or O'malley even for the next couple years. Yan seems to be just down to fight anytime, anywhere.
 
I've watched the fight once and I've watched highlights several times. It gets worse for Aljo every time I watch the highlights. There were several, and I mean at least 10 or more times, where Yan made him look very silly. Like, threw him to the ground, reversed his takedowns and tossed him, or just made him spin around, I'm not even including knockdowns.

Aljo looked like he was in slow motion compared to Yan. I'm not trying to bash Aljo, but it looked like when a new guy at the gym spars for the first time and his more experienced opponent kind of lets him do what he wants because he's new to everything.

I just don't see him winning, I think Yan is on another level, but it is MMA.
 
tornado362 said:
So I was a huge Aljo fan, and going into that fight, I wanted nothing more than for him to win the title... which he did, but yeah let's not get into that.

Of course, I'm still a fan of the guy, I like him as a fighter, the antics I tolerate, but of course they've swayed my judgment.

The first fight was more competitive than people remember, Aljo clearly won round 2, and there was an argument for round 1 being won. I really believe this fight is closer than a lot of people think, the worrying thing is Aljo's cardio, especially having taken a year out.

But is there anyone who also believes that this fight is closer than people are making out, I'm fully aware of the monster Yan is.
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Anything can happen, but it's unlikely.
 
Aljo's a legit Top 5 BW. Of course he has a chance.
 
"Does he have a chance?" is a terrible question.
There is almost always a chance. Even if someone was 99% to win, 1% is still literally a chance.
But answering the question you want to be asking... What is Aljo's chance?
I think Yan is a pretty decent favorite.

I rewatched the fight now and I think you could have scored every round for Yan. The first two rounds were competitive.
Round 1, Sterling won the first half and had two nice knees that were his most damaging shots... and Yan won the second half. The most damaging blow by quite a bit was Yan's cross that knocked down Sterling and I think it edges the round to Yan. Yan had 2 knockdowns & 3 takedowns to Sterling's 1 takedown. Sterling was way busier (3x more strikes thrown or so) and probably slightly out-struck Yan in terms of landed (Yan's defense was good and most strikes missed or were blocked. Not to mention most Aljo threw were v light), but overall damage goes to Yan somewhat clearly. I won't cry about scoring round 1 for Sterling, but I think Yan won.
Round 2, all 3 judges scored for Sterling, but I actually thought Yan edged this round. It was close though, prob closer than the first. Less strikes thrown. Lots of grappling. I suppose judges gave it to Sterling because he was controlling the grappling... but really pushing someone in to the fence doing no damage isn't worth much IMO. Again I thought Yan did more damage this round. He had 1 TD to 0 for Aljo. And Yan's TD came w/ a few strikes landed. Biggest shot of the round was probably knee Yan landed on Aljo but it wasn't a game changer or anything. I gave it to Yan , but truly no issue scoring rnd 2 for Sterling.

That said, I think Yan delivered more damage in the first 2 rounds pretty clearly. He had 2 knockdowns and 4 takedowns to 0 KD & 1 TD for Sterling. You definitely botched it if you scored this 0-2 for Sterling going in to Rnd 3. 1-1 is fine or 2-0 Yan is fine IMO.

Round 3 was clear Yan. And round 4 Yan was not only dominating, it was clear Sterling was totally ineffectual and absolutely gassed. Gassed to the point that people pointing to the scorecards are insinuating that Sterling could have won whereas I think the fight was basically over.

Let's say round 4 ended with no DQ, assuming Yan only won 10-9, you'd have 2 scorecards that were 39-37 & one that was 38-38. So Sterling could only win the fight with a finish (a 10-8 round gives him majority draw). While I suppose it isn't impossible Sterling finishes Yan in that 5th round, I think it was well under 10%. Maybe 1% or something.

All that said, that fight is in the past, and went a particular way. The next doesn't have to go the same. Sterling is skilled and can submit anyone at BW. He can beat Yan, but he really needs things to break right for him. I think he almost always loses wars. Yan's cardio and boxing and just overall toughness are out of this world. I think Sterling really only wins much by early sub. Maybe a lucky/well-timed elbow of some kind (he does have some nasty unorthodox striking) as well early for a TKO or that gets Yan to a bad position Sterling subs him.

Yan seems to be one of the smartest fighters in terms of adapting to his opponents. You can see it during fights. That skill tends to be an important one in rematches. I don't have a read on that for Aljo though.

tl;dr: I rate Yan as definitely over a 2:1 favorite. Maybe as high as 3:1.
 
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