I'm probably going to get flamed for this, but these two things seem contradictory:
"He is 5’4” and 130 pounds..."
"If a big, strong guy who weighed 250 pounds came to train, I would expect him to be able to deflect the weight, power and aggression and keep himself safe. He might not be able to win, but neither should he lose."
I honestly think a 250 pound noob off the street could dominate a 5'4 130 pound blue belt. If you told the noob, "I want you to fuck him up as hard as you can" then I think the 250 pounder could easily smash the hell out of a 5'4 130 pound blue belt in a minute. Even if the 250 pounder is out of shape and gasses. Isn't it the Gracies themselves that say every 40 pounds equals a belt level? So essentially it's a 130 pound blue belt versus a 250 pound purple/brown belt?
Quite honestly, I think this is where BJJ breaks down. In practice, you take two people within 20 pounds of each other the higher belt is going to win. But once you put a smaller guy versus a bigger guy on the street with punches then I think a lot of the smaller person's tactics and techniques break down.
Disclaimer: Nothing against the thread starter. Just a comment. Good article. Please don't omoplata me.