Opinion Houthis, Hamas, Ukraine - my conspiracy theory.

[mkess101]

They don't need an incentive to not attack people.

If they do, I want the same.

Too simplistic. Israel isn't going to attack Hezbollah or any other proxies without reliable Intel that one or more of those groups are preparing to go on offense themselves. Not for any other reason than that they no way want to voluntarily open another front and stretch their own capabilities.
That said, they aren't in too much of a "let's wait and see if they threat is REALLY there" kinda mindset after Oct 7th.


The best and most effective way to avoid the conflict spreading is to make it readily known to these groups (and those they answer to) that any aggression toward Israel is also poking the bigger bear that they don't want any part of. And at the same time, US leadership making it clear to Bibi that "Yes, we have your back. But you also have a responsibility to not push this into a wider conflict and we expect you to adhere to that."

I'm skeptical the last part is communicated strongly enough though...

 

[Islam Imamate]

They don't need an incentive to not attack people.

If they do, I want the same.

What? Reread what I wrote and try to think about what I'm saying here. Israel is very liable to attack first because it has a precarious geopolitcal position. By sending assets to the region to deter regional actors we can persuade Israel that they are secure without having to preemptively attack actors like Hezbollah. That is good because we want to avoid escalation here. Should we leave them to fend for themselves? If we do, why would we expect them to listen to us?

 

[Blayt7hh]

It a coincidence. And we aren’t spread thin where it matters; in the pacific. The Navy is still firmly focused there.

A lot of people have worried about us giving away weapons to Ukraine as well. At first glance this does look bad. What’s really been happening behind the scenes though is that the US is accelerating next generation productions. Most of that we have given is or will soon be replaced. It’s also a reassuring sign that our Cold War era equipment is giving Russia such a hard time

 

[Fluffernutter]

if you were a true Risk aficionado you would know that the first step is to claim Australia, marshal resources there and then branch out.

Australia then South America.

Easier to defend that way

 

[Fluffernutter]

I was just thinking about the timeline of events and how it's spreading out our forces and resources. I have absolutely nothing to base this opinion on other than years of playing Risk, chess and various strategy games.

But it feels like between these 3 conflicts we're being spread out and our resources being spread thin to support various military operations that ultimately will tax our allies willingness to blindly follow us. We might feel fine engaging in conflict at this scale but surely our allies are going to start wanting to pull back even more. Which undermines our position as global leader.

It's something I've been theorizing for a while. That China and Russia are collaborating on fomenting discord that weakens our global standing, rather than engaging in actions that directly challenge it. Forcing us to lead our allies into decisions that they don't want to be a part of. And I feel like it's escalating.

I feel that if there was such tight collaboration, a cable would have been leaked by now stating this fact.

It could be Russia, China, and Iran just working on their own self interests, that just happen to counter the US's

 

[Fluffernutter]

If USA is silly enough to start engaging in countries like Niger, or wherever discord is sown, then yeah - they'll spread themselves too soon pretty rapidly.

It's beyond ridiculous that the USA would need to invest a lot in Israel, though. Wherever we stand on that conflict, it's a country with an iron dome, tanks, jets, and precision weaponry against guys who make rockets from pipes and have some AK47s.

Ukraine is the country that is facing a bigger and more powerful enemy, and that should be where the Western nations are prioritizing their support.

U.S. Resumes ISR Flight Operations in Niger

The U.S. has more than 1,000 troops in Niger who had been participating alongside Nigerien troops in counterterrorism operations and security force assistance training.

www.defense.gov

 

[TheGreatA]

Our Eastern friends are definitely making moves to undermine the West, but when it comes to Ukraine, I think Russia just genuinely stumbled into a scenario which turned into a long grind rather than a quick, decisive accomplishment of their objectives.

Now that they're bogged down in an undesirable scenario, they're trying to figure out ways to salvage the situation. Slowly squeezing the West and causing cracks to appear between allies, is the only thing they can hope to gain from all this.

If someone had presented Putin with a plan that required several years of fighting, and massive losses of manpower/resources, there's no way he would've gone through with it. He was fooled into believing that they could make gains easily. The unfortunate truth about Russian government is that they have started to believe their own lies. Previously, they still had a firm grasp on reality in the midst of all the bullshit propaganda intended for gullible audiences. Nowadays they've become the main consumers of their own drivel.

 

[Fluffernutter]

Our Eastern friends are definitely making moves to undermine the West, but when it comes to Ukraine, I think Russia just genuinely stumbled into a scenario which turned into a long grind rather than a quick, decisive accomplishment of their objectives.

Now that they're bogged down in an undesirable scenario, they're trying to figure out ways to salvage the situation. Slowly squeezing the West and causing cracks to appear between allies, is the only thing they can hope to gain from all this.

If someone had presented Putin with a plan that required several years of fighting, and massive losses of manpower/resources, there's no way he would've gone through with it. He was fooled into believing that they could make gains easily. The unfortunate truth about Russian government is that they have started to believe their own lies. Previously, they still had a firm grasp on reality in the midst of all the bullshit propaganda intended for gullible audiences. Nowadays they've become the main consumers of their own drivel.

A month before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they had moved troops into Kazakhstan to squash an attempted coup.

I think that emboldened Putin to green light his movement in Ukraine.

But, as it turns out, beating Peter McNeeley, didn't prepare him adequately to take on Evander Holyfield

Kazakh leader declares ‘coup d’etat’ over as Putin claims victory

President Tokayev says ‘counterterrorism’ operation to end soon after days of bloody protests.

www.google.com

 

[panamaican]

I feel that if there was such tight collaboration, a cable would have been leaked by now stating this fact.

It could be Russia, China, and Iran just working on their own self interests, that just happen to counter the US's

Maybe it has. Just we don't know doesn't mean that the government doesn't know.

Or it might be a tight collaboration but with flexibility on how to execute their individual elements.

 

[nixkid]

Might have missed it if it was already mentioned here..but the whole Venezuela Guyana thing is pretty convenient timing for Russia as well.

And the way Maduro did it is pretty strange too. Held a referendum, declared Guyana's Essequibo region theirs and changed all the maps seemingly without an immediate plan to actually take military control of the area. It's almost like it's a bluff. Like the whole thing is just design to be a distraction.

 

[Long Dark Blues]

Everything is about exhausting the US and it's allies until the commies go full retard in South China Sea.

Yup.

 

[Mike Hagger]

It’s not implausible that some of these events are orchestrated or at a minimum capitalized upon by China and Russia… I do wonder, did americas geopolitical disposition post trump fuel the right environment for these event to occur in relative short order? Or did trump presidency set the conditions?

The timing is peculiar if the events are calculated was a weak President the target? I don’t know does not entirely matter.

The next trick is to get America to commit to a war directly with Iran. Then China can snag Taiwan, I feel like this is the plan.

 

[Natural Order]

Playing world police for the ideology of materialism is one hell of an undertaking!

 

[The_Renaissance]

Houthi & The Blowfish.

 

[jericksen5]

Russia sacrificed half of their armed forces and military equipment and exposed their general military ineptitude to create hesitation amongst Americas allies. Got it, makes perfect sense, seems so obvious when you put it that way.

 

[LeonardoBjj]

I was just thinking about the timeline of events and how it's spreading out our forces and resources. I have absolutely nothing to base this opinion on other than years of playing Risk, chess and various strategy games.

But it feels like between these 3 conflicts we're being spread out and our resources being spread thin to support various military operations that ultimately will tax our allies willingness to blindly follow us. We might feel fine engaging in conflict at this scale but surely our allies are going to start wanting to pull back even more. Which undermines our position as global leader.

It's something I've been theorizing for a while. That China and Russia are collaborating on fomenting discord that weakens our global standing, rather than engaging in actions that directly challenge it. Forcing us to lead our allies into decisions that they don't want to be a part of. And I feel like it's escalating.

- You're one of us, Pan!
Are you ready to ride with the devil?

@BearGrounds - We got a friend.

 

[LeonardoBjj]

I was just thinking about the timeline of events and how it's spreading out our forces and resources. I have absolutely nothing to base this opinion on other than years of playing Risk, chess and various strategy games.

But it feels like between these 3 conflicts we're being spread out and our resources being spread thin to support various military operations that ultimately will tax our allies willingness to blindly follow us. We might feel fine engaging in conflict at this scale but surely our allies are going to start wanting to pull back even more. Which undermines our position as global leader.

It's something I've been theorizing for a while. That China and Russia are collaborating on fomenting discord that weakens our global standing, rather than engaging in actions that directly challenge it. Forcing us to lead our allies into decisions that they don't want to be a part of. And I feel like it's escalating.

- It's a pretty good theory. In my opinion those conflicts come righ after the pandemic, as a way to countries to make money. Looks how much money was made only in Ukraine?

Brazil, UK, USA and several contries are profiting over those wars.

 

[LeonardoBjj]

Political support costs very little.

USA has given Israel a ton of political support, ie, the UN votes, keeping the international community off their backs, preventing international retaliation from countries like Iran (and other very unhappy countries) through diplomacy.

This isn't the kind of support Ukraine needs, Ukraine needs a lot of support to defend itself.

Israel, less so.

- USA gets the money back and more @Siver! I dont think USA has lost money in a war in 40 or so years.

 

[SandisLL]

Might have missed it if it was already mentioned here..but the whole Venezuela Guyana thing is pretty convenient timing for Russia as well.

And the way Maduro did it is pretty strange too. Held a referendum, declared Guyana's Essequibo region theirs and changed all the maps seemingly without an immediate plan to actually take military control of the area. It's almost like it's a bluff. Like the whole thing is just design to be a distraction.

To keep futures prices for speculants with crude oil enough high. What coincidence is Putin and Patrushev & Lukashenko friendship with Iran....

 

[Siver!]

- USA gets the money back and more @Siver! I dont think USA has lost money in a war in 40 or so years.

Well, that is true.

I suppose as an investment opportunity, even an utterly immoral one, it's financially sound.