Islamic State Thread v7 : Jihad is the stupidest fad

[Banchan]

Number of ISIS fighters are ever evolving. Back 2011 they only had a few hundred, then about 9,000 when they took over Mosul in June. Last month the CIA estimated their numbers at 30,000. As they control more territories, their rate of expansion grows. They're also assisted by other Sunni militant groups, which bolstered the numbers. However, ISIS has no control over these allied groups.

Speaking of which, when the CIA estimated ISIS militants in the range of 20,000 - 30,000 jihadis, their control was limited to 90,000 square km. Since that time, they've expanded heavily. The Kurd leader estimates present ISIS controled territory to be at 250,000 square km. That's almost 3 times the territory they had 3 months ago.

 

[Banchan]

How much of that supposed 200,000 do you think are properly trained, able-bodied individuals? people have been overstating their enemies armies since written history began.

I would guess no less trained than our Iraqi allies who fled and left their American taxpayer - paid for ammunitions and equipment for ISIS to collect like early Christmas presents.

 

[nefti]

You also have to worry about Iraqis and Kurds overstating IS numbers to get more money, weapons and supplies from Western aid.

the kurds deserve every penny, bullet, and supply they get. They should have their own nation. As a nation, the US owe them their own nation. The should be independent.

 

[Selukrid612]

Yikes!

Senior Kurdish leader: CIA has hugely underestimated the number of ISIS jihadis (est. 200 000, CIA est. 20 000 - 31 500), who now rule an area the size of Britain.

He estimates that Isis rules a third of Iraq and a third of Syria with a population of between 10 and 12 million living in an area of 250,000 square kilometres, the same size as Great Britain. This gives the jihadis a large pool of potential recruits.

Proof that Isis has created a large field army at great speed is that it has been launching attacks against the Kurds in northern Iraq and the Iraqi army close to Baghdad at the same time as it is fighting in Syria. "They are fighting in Kobani," said Mr Hussein. "In Kurdistan last month they were attacking in seven different places as well as in Ramadi [capital of Anbar province west of Baghdad] and Jalawla [an Arab-Kurdish town close to Iranian border]. It is impossible to talk of 20,000 men or so."

The high figure for Isis's combat strength is important because it underlines how difficult it will be eliminate Isis even with US air strikes. In September, the CIA produced an estimate of Isis numbers which calculated that the movement had between 20,000 and 31,500 fighters. The underestimate of the size of the force that Isis can deploy may explain why the US and other foreign governments have been repeatedly caught by surprise over the past five months as IS inflicted successive defeats on the Iraqi army, Syrian army, Syrian rebels and Kurdish peshmerga.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-of-200000-claims-kurdish-leader-9863418.html

Just to put that number in perspective, the US didn't even have 200,000 troops in Iraq during the invasion and occupation. That's a very large force, larger than the entire British armed forces. If they had 200,000 men they would've overran Kobane over a month ago. Instead they're struggling to do anything outside of Sunni strongholds. Anbar Province isn't even entirely under their control.

And those attacks against Kurdistan he's referencing were easily repelled, it's not like they were massive battles. I thought at the time ISIS was simply trying to discourage the Peshmerga from sending troops to Kobane because those attacks occurred shortly after that decision was made.

 

[A Very Serious Cat]

ISIS has jumped that shark

They're staring down a humiliating and costly defeat in Kobane.
The Iraqi Kurds have been armed and with the support of air strikes aren't going anywhere.
The Iraqi army finally seems to be getting some of its shit together and winning a few battles.
They don't even have any real anti-war sentiment in the west to cling to. Their almost comical level of evil has dealt to that.

What a shitty caliphate.

 

[Banchan]

Just to put that number in perspective, the US didn't even have 200,000 troops in Iraq during the invasion and occupation. That's a very large force, larger than the entire British armed forces. If they had 200,000 men they would've overran Kobane over a month ago. Instead they're struggling to do anything outside of Sunni strongholds. Anbar Province isn't even entirely under their control.

And those attacks against Kurdistan he's referencing were easily repelled, it's not like they were massive battles. I thought at the time ISIS was simply trying to discourage the Peshmerga from sending troops to Kobane because those attacks occurred shortly after that decision was made.

ISIS has jumped that shark

They're staring down a humiliating and costly defeat in Kobane.
The Iraqi Kurds have been armed and with the support of air strikes aren't going anywhere.
The Iraqi army finally seems to be getting some of its shit together and winning a few battles.
They don't even have any real anti-war sentiment in the west to cling to. Their almost comical level of evil has dealt to that.

What a shitty caliphate.

Do you know what the Caliphates' s strongest weapon is? It's time. Something that they have a lot of and we don't. Airstrikes and coalition forces are very expensive and they know that. Even if we are successful at presently minimizing their impact, how long before they rise again in the thirdcoming?

 

[SammyPops]

How much of that supposed 200,000 do you think are properly trained, able-bodied individuals? people have been overstating their enemies armies since written history began.

probably a lot of them and they that number is growing each day. experience is a hell of a thing

 

[MadHorse]

Do you know what the Caliphates' s strongest weapon is? It's time. Something that they have a lot of and we don't. Airstrikes and coalition forces are very expensive and they know that. Even if we are successful at presently minimizing their impact, how long before they rise again in the thirdcoming?

 

[Rod1]

I would guess no less trained than our Iraqi allies who fled and left their American taxpayer - paid for ammunitions and equipment for ISIS to collect like early Christmas presents.

Yeah but its like the 300 spartans vs the 1,000,000 persians, most likely a BS number.

 

[Banchan]

Say what you want about Obama but at least he understands that this will be a long term endeavor. The West might not have the stomach for it but it's the cold truth. We should appreciate a president who realizes that sending ground troops with the idea of ending this thing quickly is unrealistic and will only antagonize more Muslims (which could lead them to sympathize with IS)

I didn't say anything about Obama.

All I mean by that is that ISIS's failure to take Kobani isn't indicating their peak is not powerful enough to take it. It could mean they are laying low or focusing on other territory until the planes go away.

 

[Banchan]

Yeah but its like the 300 spartans vs the 1,000,000 persians, most likely a BS number.

Except we are not Spartans because we have our own share of Persians running away from ISIS. Even Obama admits that we have to reevaluate our tactics because we weren't expecting our allies to retreat so quickly.

 

[Rod1]

Except we are not Spartans because we have our own share of Persians running away from ISIS. Even Obama admits that we have to reevaluate our tactics because we weren't expecting our allies to retreat so quickly.

Im just saying that you shouldnt dismiss the CIA number so quickly, its not like Kurds have a massive intelligence network.

 

[Fronk]

Im just saying that you shouldnt dismiss the CIA number so quickly, its not like Kurds have a massive intelligence network.

yes, infact kurdish information is not reliable at all.

 

[Swiftmayhem]

ignorant first worlders discussing something they have no clue on itt

yawn

 

[Fronk]

ignorant first worlders discussing something they have no clue on itt

yawn

:icon_lol:

please enlighten us

 

[MadHorse]

I didn't say anything about Obama.

All I mean by that is that ISIS's failure to take Kobani isn't indicating their peak is not powerful enough to take it. It could mean they are laying low or focusing on other territory until the planes go away.

I wasn't referring to you specifically with regard to Obama, I was referring to the general criticism which he gets for his 'weak' policy in Iraq and Syria.

I don't completely agree with you though. They have invested a lot of men and weaponry in their failed attempt at seizing Kobani.. not to mention the blow it must have made to their confidence. This is partialy reflected in the amount of foreign recrutes which have drasticaly gone down. Add to that the recent recapturing of Jurf al-Sakhr, Beji and more, the attack on Baghdadi, sunni tribes taking a stance against IS and the loss of oil refineries...

I think this is more than just a strategical retreat.

 

[irish_thug]

Yeah but its like the 300 spartans vs the 1,000,000 persians, most likely a BS number.

300 spartans for 1,000,000 spartans, eh?

Does anyone know where we can get 60 spartans? that ought to be enough to deal with 200,000 isis. Isis? Isises? Isisians? Isissies.

 

[Banchan]

Im just saying that you shouldnt dismiss the CIA number so quickly, its not like Kurds have a massive intelligence network.

Neither is probably correct. Though you should note that the CIA est. is based on a much smaller territory from several months ago. ISIS has accmulated huge amounts of territory since then. That probably supports Hussein's claim that their numbers have grown dramatically with the seizure of territory. How are they guarding it, fighting and expanding at the same time? Have you checked out the size of land they are currently occupying? It's hard to believe that 20,000-30,000 can do this.

 

[Banchan]

I wasn't referring to you specifically with regard to Obama, I was referring to the general criticism which he gets for his 'weak' policy in Iraq and Syria.

I don't completely agree with you though. They have invested a lot of men and weaponry in their failed attempt at seizing Kobani.. not to mention the blow it must have made to their confidence. This is partialy reflected in the that the amount of foreign recrutes have drasticaly gone down. Add to that the recent recapturing of Jurf al-Sakhr, Beji and more, the attack on Baghdadi, sunni tribes taking a stance against IS and the loss of oil refineries...

I think this is more than just a strategical retreat.

I'm basing this on reports from our military that they are hiding from our airstrikes. Previous to this, they traveled more openly. You're correct that they've suffered some major blows and that is probably why they are being more cautious.

 

[Victor Maitland]

I think carpet bombing tactics should be used in known ISIS controlled areas. A night of carpet bombing in Kobane would end them fast.