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Neither is probably correct. Though you should note that the CIA est. is based on a much smaller territory from several months ago. ISIS has accmulated huge amounts of territory since then. That probably supports Hussein's claim that their numbers have grown dramatically with the seizure of territory. How are they guarding it, fighting and expanding at the same time? Have you checked out the size of land they are currently occupying? It's hard to believe that 20,000-30,000 can do this.
It took 200 spanish to take control of an empire of millions. There is a reason why ISIS went uncontested on Sunni areas but stopped on its tracks in Shia areas.
A lot of people supported ISIS, thats why they moved so fast in the areas where they could get support, but that has stopped, also the 20,000-30,000 earlier estimate is not taking into account the beating they are getting.
Plus even if they have grown 3 times, you may assume they may have 60,000 to 90,000 isnt? the 200,000 number just reeks of a number made out of thin air.