Jailton Almeida explains why he thinks Sergei Pavlovich beats Tom Aspinall at #UFC295

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

Jailton Almeida believes one half of the UFC 295 co-main event has a clear edge over the other.

Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) will take on fellow surging contender Tom Aspinall (13-3) at Madison Square Garden in New York on Nov. 11 for the interim heavyweight title. The replacement bout was announced a little more than two weeks before Jon Jones’ scheduled title defense against Stipe Miocic fell through, as “Bones” suffered a torn pectoral muscle in training.

While Aspinall is a slight -130 favorite on some sportsbooks in the evenly-matched booking, Almeida (19-2) sees Pavlovich having an advantage. It is worth noting that the Russian was originally supposed to weigh-in as the backup for the title fight between Jones and Miocic.

Keeping that in mind, Almeida believes Pavlovich will have an edge as he was already in a title-fight mindset as opposed to his English opponent, who was just training as usual.

“Jones’ injury opens up opportunities, and now we have Aspinall vs. Pavlovich. As far as who I see as the favorite, I think Aspinall didn’t have the mentality that he was going to fight for the belt. Actually, after his fight, he said he wanted Ciryl Gane.” Almedia said during UFC Fight Night 231 media day.

“Meanwhile, Pavlovich is a guy that had his mind focused on fighting for the belt, and he was serving as a backup and was doing a full camp. I think I’ll favor Pavlovich. He’s the guy with the full camp, and Aspinall was just training to train. He wasn’t mentally ready for a title fight. He wasn’t thinking about the title.”

Currently undefeated in the UFC with all wins coming via stoppage, Almeida is scheduled to headline UFC Fight Night 231 in Sao Paulo opposite Derrick Lewis (27-11) this weekend.

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https://www.sherdog.com/news/news/J...ks-Pavlovich-Beats-Aspinall-at-UFC-295-191587

 

[Barteh]

I think Pavlovich will win as well but I don't think the full camp is going to be the difference maker.

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

Poll Added

 

[sadoquera]

aspinall is a solid boxer, has great bjj, very techinical, kicks and punches well from both sides. pavlovich is a strong dude, very well rounded, but i do not see such an advantage here.

 

[jitzmonkey]

Said it probably a dozen times on this forum:

Aspinall has had trouble in the past with distance management.
He jams himself on nearly every big strike that he lands.
His speed usually makes up for this deficiency.
It didn't help and caused to his injury against Blaydes.

While he showed improvement against Tybura, it was still evident.

Contrarily, he is still relatively young; so may be making big improvements between fights.

Sergei having a full camp may benefits the Russian.

On a completely unrelated note, Tom looks like a jacked Shane Gillis:

 

[Arm Barbarian]

I kind of think Pav may win as well.

I think this one might be a one round barn burner, and one furious exchange ends it.

 

[Spam On Rye]

I like both guys and think Asp has the higher ceiling overall but it's a hard pick. Asp has better wrestling and is gonna be faster but he keeps that chin up in the air which is perfect for Pavs power. Plus, Asp didn't have a camp right?

 

[TankAbbott4Eva]

I’ll go Aspinall but am not convinced either way, after what Tuivasa said about Sergei’s power he’s a chance against anyone.

This is a better and more relevant fight than Jones vs Miocic though

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

Pav takes it this time, but it will be an interesting inevitable rematch when Aspinall develops more.
His speed makes other HWs look stupid, but Pav's reach will touch him before he can disengage efficiently.

 

[Neck&Neck]

If Pav The Sav can avoid an early TD, I think he should take out AspenThaw with more precise striking and pressure

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

@StonedLemur @Fight Professor @TerrorTimmy @Elvis. @ryun253 @don't ask @C0NCH3TO @MEAN357 @Cooliox @mudrubble @Bobby Boulders @Simple Southerner @svmr_db @Luthien @BoxerMaurits

What do my homies think? Agree? Sergei over Aspinall...

 

[don't ask]

@StonedLemur @Fight Professor @TerrorTimmy @Elvis. @ryun253 @don't ask @C0NCH3TO @MEAN357 @Cooliox @mudrubble @Bobby Boulders @Simple Southerner @svmr_db @Luthien @BoxerMaurits

What do my homies think? Agree? Sergei over Aspinall...

I want Sergei to win. Also, I like this trend of being tagged in to shitpost.

 

[WoozyFailGuy]

I want Sergei to win. Also, I like this trend of being tagged in to shitpost.

There are levels to this shitposting.

 

[don't ask]

There are levels to this shitposting.

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

I want Sergei to win. Also, I like this trend of being tagged in to shitpost.

There are levels to this shitposting.

Picking the winner isn't sh*t posting home slice...

 

[Simple Southerner]

@StonedLemur @Fight Professor @TerrorTimmy @Elvis. @ryun253 @don't ask @C0NCH3TO @MEAN357 @Cooliox @mudrubble @Bobby Boulders @Simple Southerner @svmr_db @Luthien @BoxerMaurits

What do my homies think? Agree? Sergei over Aspinall...

Yeah I'll be rooting for Tom though he can win this fight its not beyond reach.

 

[Burd]

Makes sense about training for a title fight all this time.

 

[StonedLemur]

@StonedLemur @Fight Professor @TerrorTimmy @Elvis. @ryun253 @don't ask @C0NCH3TO @MEAN357 @Cooliox @mudrubble @Bobby Boulders @Simple Southerner @svmr_db @Luthien @BoxerMaurits

What do my homies think? Agree? Sergei over Aspinall...

No sir, can't agree on that one.
Although Pav looks like a machine right now, I see Tom's grappling making the difference.

 

[Luthien]

Never thought Tom was anything special @KowboyMMA

 

[JarlSkuld]

Meh, it's HW. Whoever lands the first big shot will win.

Jarl