News Jailton Almeida vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik set for May 13th

[Post 2 Decision]

Jairzinho and Lewis are 2 big overachievers with one punch KO power. Fight would be fun while it lasts.

Lewis has beaten people that Rozenstriuk lost to... in theory he is the most accomplished MMA fighter.

I don't think Roz gets caught by Lewis, at least not current Lewis

 

[Safton]

I don't think Roz gets caught by Lewis, at least not current Lewis

Yeah I've been giving this hypothetical fight some thought lately. It's one I've always wanted to see despite the fact that both being timid counter-punchers means it could turn into a staring contest. I think with each man's respective momentum lately Rozenstruik probably has more upside if/when they ever fight. His timing and power are just as good as Derrick's and he has a bigger arsenal of reliable striking techniques (calf kicks, head kicks, Superman punches, an actual jab, knees, etc.) Lewis doesn't even have much of a reach advantage over Bigi Boy. My only real concern would be if Black Beast tried to implement some offensive grappling to mix things up amidst the brawling like he did against Tai. Plus, of course, the inherent volatility of two power-punchers swinging hammers at each other.

I would say that Rozenstruik's durability is probably the better of the two to rely on, but I really didn't like the way he seemed totally unable to recover from the first clean strike he got clipped by against Volkov who isn't really known as a power-puncher at HW. Probably safe to say that both are fully capable of beginning a fight-ending sequence with the first good shot they land.

 

[markantony20]

I love watching Almeida fight I’m excited for this one.

 

[Sinedd]

I really wish they'd give Almeida someone like Tybura or Romanov instead. We need to find out if he can beat a heavyweight with some wrestling skill before he runs all the way up the rankings.

 

[BoxerMaurits]

It’s not official yet. Rozenstruik still hasn’t signed his contract

 

[Tweak896]

• See above. Aspinall won't be back for a few months at least in all likelihood.
  
• Tai is coming off a skid, but if he's smart he'll take some time off instead of foolishly rushing back into the cage yet again after having sustained so much concussive damage in his last two outings in such a small time frame. Plus, you're talking about potentially boosting #14 directly into the Top 5 off the back of two wins in the weight class and only a single ranked victory. Between Jailton and Bam Bam there are four contenders coming off wins -- some of which are on streaks -- all of which would likely argue that they deserve the opportunity for some Tuivasa smoke just as much.
• Spivak is one of said contenders. Three-fight win streak, all finishes, already in the Top 10. Dude's on a trajectory toward the Top 5 as it is. Look at it from his perspective: why should he have to defend his rank against someone way below him just because they have hype and momentum?

I say this as someone who likes Almeida a lot and will eagerly watch every time he's in the cage. He's probably the first hype train I've boarded since becoming a UFC fan. But on a meritocratic basis, I don't really think he should leapfrog so many dudes just because people like me and you are excited to see what he can do at the top of the division. One could argue that he's already getting a bit of a treat just by being handed Rozenstruik who's Top 10 and coming off a win; given the rankings he could have easily been tossed at a powerful wrestler in Romanov who's only one slot ahead of him (though I think he would win that fight). Just my two cents.



I think that goes for everyone lmao. Fingers crossed.

I'm an old school mma fan, been watching this sport awhile. When I started if you got 5 finishes in a row that was basically unheard of to not get a title shot. The guy hasn't seen a 3rd round in the UFC and has outclassed all his opponents. You have guys above him who have lost fights brutally, sure they might be on winning streaks but to be undefeated in the UFC like he is with those finishes is crazy.

Maybe JDS comes to mind as the only guy who had to prove more to finally get his shot but I'm sick of guys that look top of the division have to string a crazy streak together. It's becoming too common now and the reason why is always just like you stated, the guys above "have to make the best career moves for themselves". I get it, but also it's the mentality that turned boxers into undefeated can crushers who avoid the tough matchups. The more we as fans excuse these decisions the closer it becomes like that. These guys get on insane win streaks and they are at the end of their rope and luck by the time they have the title and its statistically more likely they'll have a short title defense run because of it.

 

[Safton]

I'm an old school mma fan, been watching this sport awhile. When I started if you got 5 finishes in a row that was basically unheard of to not get a title shot. The guy hasn't seen a 1st round in the UFC and has outclassed all his opponents. You have guys above him who have lost fights brutally, sure they might be on winning streaks but to be undefeated in the UFC like he is with those finishes is crazy.

Maybe JDS comes to mind as the only guy who had to prove more to finally get his shot but I'm sick of guys that look top of the division have to string a crazy streak together. It's becoming too common now and the reason why is always just like you stated, the guys above "have to make the best career moves for themselves". I get it, but also it's the mentality that turned boxers into undefeated can crushers who avoid the tough matchups. The more we as fans excuse these decisions the closer it becomes like that. These guys get on insane win streaks and they are at the end of their rope and luck by the time they have the title and its statistically more likely they'll have a short title defense run because of it.

I agree with parts of this and can't quite get there on others. In talking about how number of title defenses shouldn't be an arbitrary gatekeeping metric for measuring greatness of one's legacy to previous champions, I have argued in previous posts how the current format of the sport is such that it simply doesn't encourage long title defense reigns. It takes longer for guys on average to make it to the UFC in the first place as compared to decades ago, it takes longer for them to make it into the rankings, it takes longer for them to make it into the Top 10, then the Top 5, and then to get a title shot before the topic of title defenses even comes up. So yeah, I agree that this is an unfortunate side effect.

That being said, I don't think the solution is to hitch one's wagon to any new shiny prospect who fights in an exciting way and seems to have the goods at the expense of other fighters in the division who have more tenure and are ranked above him. Spivak is still in his 20s, has shown a willingness and ability to improve, has looked great in his last few outings, and went from a medicore prospect to a legit contender. He's on a three-fight finish streak. Should a rocky start to his UFC career cause him to be thrown by the wayside in favor of a dude who only has two wins inside the division (only one of which was against a ranked contender)? What about Marcin Tybura? Very forgettable fighter in many aspects most would agree, but the guy is 7-1 in his last 8 bouts. That's crazy.

Mind you, I'm not encouraging rank-squatting. I think it has caused divisions like Lightweight to become somewhat stagnant. If a ranked fighter is coming off a loss, he or she should be compelled to fight someone ranked below them coming off a win -- full stop. Sometimes other things happen because people are booked, injured, or you have lots of fighters adjacent to one another all coming off wins/losses and so things just have to happen and that's fine.

So yeah, I like guys like Almeida and Chimaev and the like. Monstrous finishing machines who come into the division and strike fear into the ranks before storming their way toward the top. But I don't agree with anyone getting fast-tracked due to hype alone. If a fighter at the top requests the match-up... okay, fine I guess. It feels disrespectful to the guys who have been quietly putting in good work for years at this point despite their records looking a bit saltier at times. Furthermore, it can be outright detrimental to the prospect by rushing them into a fight they're not ready for yet. I don't know about you, but I feel like Curtis Blaydes or the Aspinall we saw pre-injury could get off the couch and fuck Jailton up (I'm exaggerating, but only a bit). It would do Almeida well to get a bit more seasoning before engaging in those kinds of tests lest he end up like Aaron Pico. Hell, despite beating Burns, Khamzat took more damage against Burns in one fight than he did against an entire career's worth of opponents up to that point. Would another opponent or two in between have made any appreciable difference? Maybe, maybe not. Furthermore, even if the prospect passes the test sometimes they still catch shit. Khamzat gets ragged on for "almost losing to a bloated Lightweight" while Alex Pereira gets talked about as some kind of paper champ because he "is got fast-tracked for the PPV points and is going to be exposed by the first decent grappler he fights".

Mind you, for the sake of clarity/disclosure, just as you're an old-school fan I am very much new-school lol. I came late to the sport and I try -- in vain -- to make the rankings neat and orderly and sensible while having every matchmaking decision be based purely on merit and standing in the division (strong bonus if it's stylistically interesting). It's how my brain is wired.

 

[Dirty Frank]

Whatever happened to Rozenstruik killing people with teh jab?
Nowadays you'd be crazy not to pick the younger, more athletic grappler over him

 

[Safton]

Whatever happened to Rozenstruik killing people with teh jab?

Oh his power's still there, he's just fighting better competition is all.

He did this to Sakai with a tiny arm punch to the bottom of the chin while off-balance:



(7:28)

There's not really a good video of the Daukaus fight, but it's kind of hilarious. Right as the fight starts, Chris lands a big right cross on Bigi Boy who just eats it before trying to club him with two counter-hooks that rattle his guard and make him back off. Things seem to be going well for Chris and he begins to inch forward back into the pocket, but Rozenstruik intercepts him with a jab. Nothing crazy -- not really a stiff jab or anything and Jairzinho doesn't step into it at all -- just flicks his left hand out there and stabs Chris with it as the latter is coming in. Daukaus immediately goes on wobbly baby deer legs and begins backpedaling across the Octagon to begin the fight-ending sequence.

Of course, that's Daukaus who was always a bit chinny and had been finished by strikes in his last two outings.

Nowadays you'd be crazy not to pick the younger, more athletic grappler over him

Probably. I do favor Jailton, but I think this fight's dangerous still. Jairzinho is one of the biggest men he's fought, has the power & timing to capitalize on his wild striking tendencies on the feet, and actually has slightly better defensive grappling than people give him credit for at times.

I think Jailton probably takes him down and finishes him on the mat inside two rounds, but I wouldn't blame anyone for betting on Rozenstruik to catch him. I certainly don't think it's proverbially setting your money on fire.

 

[Tweak896]

I agree with parts of this and can't quite get there on others. In talking about how number of title defenses shouldn't be an arbitrary gatekeeping metric for measuring greatness of one's legacy to previous champions, I have argued in previous posts how the current format of the sport is such that it simply doesn't encourage long title defense reigns. It takes longer for guys on average to make it to the UFC in the first place as compared to decades ago, it takes longer for them to make it into the rankings, it takes longer for them to make it into the Top 10, then the Top 5, and then to get a title shot before the topic of title defenses even comes up. So yeah, I agree that this is an unfortunate side effect.

That being said, I don't think the solution is to hitch one's wagon to any new shiny prospect who fights in an exciting way and seems to have the goods at the expense of other fighters in the division who have more tenure and are ranked above him. Spivak is still in his 20s, has shown a willingness and ability to improve, has looked great in his last few outings, and went from a medicore prospect to a legit contender. He's on a three-fight finish streak. Should a rocky start to his UFC career cause him to be thrown by the wayside in favor of a dude who only has two wins inside the division (only one of which was against a ranked contender)? What about Marcin Tybura? Very forgettable fighter in many aspects most would agree, but the guy is 7-1 in his last 8 bouts. That's crazy.

Mind you, I'm not encouraging rank-squatting. I think it has caused divisions like Lightweight to become somewhat stagnant. If a ranked fighter is coming off a loss, he or she should be compelled to fight someone ranked below them coming off a win -- full stop. Sometimes other things happen because people are booked, injured, or you have lots of fighters adjacent to one another all coming off wins/losses and so things just have to happen and that's fine.

So yeah, I like guys like Almeida and Chimaev and the like. Monstrous finishing machines who come into the division and strike fear into the ranks before storming their way toward the top. But I don't agree with anyone getting fast-tracked due to hype alone. If a fighter at the top requests the match-up... okay, fine I guess. It feels disrespectful to the guys who have been quietly putting in good work for years at this point despite their records looking a bit saltier at times. Furthermore, it can be outright detrimental to the prospect by rushing them into a fight they're not ready for yet. I don't know about you, but I feel like Curtis Blaydes or the Aspinall we saw pre-injury could get off the couch and fuck Jailton up (I'm exaggerating, but only a bit). It would do Almeida well to get a bit more seasoning before engaging in those kinds of tests lest he end up like Aaron Pico. Hell, despite beating Burns, Khamzat took more damage against Burns in one fight than he did against an entire career's worth of opponents up to that point. Would another opponent or two in between have made any appreciable difference? Maybe, maybe not. Furthermore, even if the prospect passes the test sometimes they still catch shit. Khamzat gets ragged on for "almost losing to a bloated Lightweight" while Alex Pereira gets talked about as some kind of paper champ because he "is got fast-tracked for the PPV points and is going to be exposed by the first decent grappler he fights".

Mind you, for the sake of clarity/disclosure, just as you're an old-school fan I am very much new-school lol. I came late to the sport and I try -- in vain -- to make the rankings neat and orderly and sensible while having every matchmaking decision be based purely on merit and standing in the division (strong bonus if it's stylistically interesting). It's how my brain is wired.

I understand the Pico situation of rushing the guys, but Almeida/Chimaeve are 31/28 respectively. That doesn't leave much of a career left for them. Fans demand beating a top 10 and top 5 opponent, probably a win streak of 3-5 underneath top 10, but the issue today is champs defend only twice a year if we're lucky and consider that "very active". We would have less issues if the champ defended 3x normally a year, and 2x in a bad year, 1x in a rare time. Then the other issue is rematches which hold rankings up. We're getting Usman/Izzy both well deserved rematches, but there were plenty that haven't been needed.

There is an issue today I don't know how to fix until we can get more control of top fighters of who they fight and how often they do. Pride Heavyweights were a legendary division, but look at the frequency of opponents and quality of opposition. This is why today is stagnant and considered much lower quality.

 

[Safton]

I understand the Pico situation of rushing the guys, but Almeida/Chimaeve are 31/28 respectively. That doesn't leave much of a career left for them. Fans demand beating a top 10 and top 5 opponent, probably a win streak of 3-5 underneath top 10, but the issue today is champs defend only twice a year if we're lucky and consider that "very active". We would have less issues if the champ defended 3x normally a year, and 2x in a bad year, 1x in a rare time. Then the other issue is rematches which hold rankings up. We're getting Usman/Izzy both well deserved rematches, but there were plenty that haven't been needed.

I get that, but again I don't think a fighter's age combined with hype surrounding them is reason enough to boost them over guys ranked above them who are on solid win streaks of their own and are plenty deserving on their own merit. If that's the case why even bother with rankings at all? The sport is just fundamentally different today than it was years ago, for better or worse.

I actually don't like instant rematches for dethroned champions under any circumstances unless there was legitimate controversy from the first bout, but that's neither here nor there...

There is an issue today I don't know how to fix until we can get more control of top fighters of who they fight and how often they do. Pride Heavyweights were a legendary division, but look at the frequency of opponents and quality of opposition. This is why today is stagnant and considered much lower quality.

Possibly, but I almost view PRIDE and the way it operated as a different albeit related combat sport to modern cage-fighting in the Western world TBH.

 

[Willek]

Almedia never fighting at LHW again?

 

[Paul E Gensinger]

Can we get him a HW with a lil bit of TDD? This is just a waste of time.

Not for him it isn't.
It gets him a ranked win against one of the top 3 hitters in the UFC. He's up there with Tai (I think) in terms of pure power.

Also, so much for Struke getting back on track....

 

[joeson]

Rozenstruik's TDD and ability to get back up are underrated. Outside of Blaydes and Overeem (who has awkward and deceptively effective takedowns) he hasn't really been held down. He has a TDD of 75%, compared to Tai at 52%, BB at 52%, Gane at 55%, Pavlovich at 66%, and Ngannou at 71%. Admittedly, not a lot of people try to take him down for some reason but when they have tried he has been able to defend most.

That being said, he hasn't fought someone that is going to doggedly pursue the takedown and has submissions on the ground like Almeida. Not a great style match up for Biggie but he will be the bigger man. If he can keep the fight standing, Almeida will be in trouble.

 

[Paul E Gensinger]

Huge step up in competition for Jail Town.


Rozen has good TDD (TD Def.: 75%), more than Gane, Blaydes, Volkov and Lewis according to the ufcstats.com.

I don't see it. Almeida is going to maul him. In fact, he's going maul everyone but Jones and Blaydes.
Mark my words.

 

[Safton]

I don't see it. Almeida is going to maul him. In fact, he's going maul everyone but Jones and Blaydes.
Mark my words.

There are more opponents than that who have the chance to give him trouble, much less avoid being mauled IMO. And I say that as a big fan of the guy.

 

[Dirty Frank]

Oh his power's still there, he's just fighting better competition is all.

He did this to Sakai with a tiny arm punch to the bottom of the chin while off-balance:



(7:28)

There's not really a good video of the Daukaus fight, but it's kind of hilarious. Right as the fight starts, Chris lands a big right cross on Bigi Boy who just eats it before trying to club him with two counter-hooks that rattle his guard and make him back off. Things seem to be going well for Chris and he begins to inch forward back into the pocket, but Rozenstruik intercepts him with a jab. Nothing crazy -- not really a stiff jab or anything and Jairzinho doesn't step into it at all -- just flicks his left hand out there and stabs Chris with it as the latter is coming in. Daukaus immediately goes on wobbly baby deer legs and begins backpedaling across the Octagon to begin the fight-ending sequence.

Of course, that's Daukaus who was always a bit chinny and had been finished by strikes in his last two outings.



Probably. I do favor Jailton, but I think this fight's dangerous still. Jairzinho is one of the biggest men he's fought, has the power & timing to capitalize on his wild striking tendencies on the feet, and actually has slightly better defensive grappling than people give him credit for at times.

I think Jailton probably takes him down and finishes him on the mat inside two rounds, but I wouldn't blame anyone for betting on Rozenstruik to catch him. I certainly don't think it's proverbially setting your money on fire.

Whoa thank you for the comprehensive reply!