Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

Five horses for me today that fit the angle, which has a 9-5-3 record out of the last 24 starters to have it;

Mahoning Valley Race 2 - Lil Country Grad 3/1
Tampa Bay Race 3 - #5 Big Silver Hoss 7/2
Fair Grounds Race 6 - #1 Galilea 10/1
Turfway Park Race 2 - #4 Barbad Bernie 4/1
Delta Downs Race 8 - #7 Moroccan Warrior 6/1

$5 to win, $10 to place with all of them for me. We'll see what kind of prices I can get since a few are a little short on the morning line. I have doubts any of these go off as favourite in their races, though, so the prices should still be okay.

 

[t6p]

Five horses for me today that fit the angle, which has a 9-5-3 record out of the last 24 starters to have it;

Mahoning Valley Race 2 - Lil Country Grad 3/1
Tampa Bay Race 3 - #5 Big Silver Hoss 7/2
Fair Grounds Race 6 - #1 Galilea 10/1
Turfway Park Race 2 - #4 Barbad Bernie 4/1
Delta Downs Race 8 - #7 Moroccan Warrior 6/1

$5 to win, $10 to place with all of them for me. We'll see what kind of prices I can get since a few are a little short on the morning line. I have doubts any of these go off as favourite in their races, though, so the prices should still be okay.

Playing with house money after yesterday, so how could I not be in. Only wish I wasn't working so I could watch. Let's get it, Shark.

 

[Sharkey]

Playing with house money after yesterday, so how could I not be in. Only wish I wasn't working so I could watch. Let's get it, Shark.

Best of luck to you today, T.

I'm likely going to miss watching a couple of races myself today as I have to do an estimate on a house later this afternoon that I'll eventually be working on. But I should still be able to watch the first two and the the last one which is in the evening. Hoping for more of the same with these guys obviously.

How's your UFC betting gone over the last month or so? I noticed you broke even on the FOX card. Doing okay on the others recently?

 

[t6p]

Best of luck to you today, T.

I'm likely going to miss watching a couple of races myself today as I have to do an estimate on a house later this afternoon that I'll eventually be working on. But I should still be able to watch the first two and the the last one which is in the evening. Hoping for more of the same with these guys obviously.

How's your UFC betting gone over the last month or so? I noticed you broke even on the FOX card. Doing okay on the others recently?

Thanks, Shark.

It's been going pretty well bud. 4 of the last 6 cards have been winners for me and UFC 218 was my best night since July. I'm up just a hair over 10u the past 30 days, and I'm especially happy with that because the Gastelum/Bisping card was tied for my worst loss of the year. Trying to really look at my numbers to see what's working and what isn't. I'll be making some tweaks in 2018 that hopefully will lead to a more profitable year.

 

[Sharkey]

Thanks, Shark.

It's been going pretty well bud. 4 of the last 6 cards have been winners for me and UFC 218 was my best night since July. I'm up just a hair over 10u the past 30 days, and I'm especially happy with that because the Gastelum/Bisping card was tied for my worst loss of the year. Trying to really look at my numbers to see what's working and what isn't. I'll be making some tweaks in 2018 that hopefully will lead to a more profitable year.

That's awesome, T. Great to hear you've had some good nights recently. Looking inwards and handicapping yourself as a capper is always a great move as well. Keep what works for you. Discard what doesn't. That's the type of thinking that makes me think you will have a big year in 2018.

 

[t6p]

That's awesome, T. Great to hear you've had some good nights recently. Looking inwards and handicapping yourself as a capper is always a great move as well. Keep what works for you. Discard what doesn't. That's the type of thinking that makes me think you will have a big year in 2018.

Thanks Shark, I hope you're right!

 

[Sharkey]

The 1st one of the day gave us a shot. Was right there in position the whole way during the stretch run but got caught late and finished a half length back in 3rd.

 

[Sharkey]

Not a great return in our 2nd race after the scratches (2/1), but it still cashes.

 

[Sharkey]

Sucks to see that our price just took a massive hit on our Fair Grounds play. They got some wet stuff down there so the race has been taken off the turf and onto the sloppy main track. Field went from 12 down to 7 now. The good thing for our horse is that she's 2 for 2 over an off track, including her last race where it fits the E2 angle. The bad thing about that is everybody else who does conventional handicapping is going to see her past success on an off track as well. Who knows what we'll get, but it's hard seeing anything close to that 10/1 morning line.

 

[Sharkey]

Sorry about that, T. All but one were in a position to cash something for us during the stretch runs today, but we don't have much to show for it. We'll get em next time.

 

[t6p]

Sorry about that, T. All but one were in a position to cash something for us during the stretch runs today, but we don't have much to show for it. We'll get em next time.

Just seeing the results Shark and no need to ever apologize. Especially when I'm still up almost 4u over the last two days!

I've been trying to follow along as much as possible. It seems like this E2 angle you've been playing has been working out nicely so far?

 

[Sharkey]

Just seeing the results Shark and no need to ever apologize. Especially when I'm still up almost 4u over the last two days!

I've been trying to follow along as much as possible. It seems like this E2 angle you've been playing has been working out nicely so far?

Could I at least feel bad about about our 10/1 shot getting bet all the way down to 3/2 and then proceeds to finish off the board? Haha. Terrible.

Yeah, I've been playing this angle almost exclusively for the past few weeks now and it's been great to me. Even when my inner degenerate came out to expand the angle and betting it more random I was seeing positive results. Works best when I stick to what it is, though. But I've always got positive results when betting this angle even going back a few years. Difference then was that I was driving down to the OTB 2 or 3 times a month playing limited races so I wasn't going to find the horse that fits the angle all that often. Nowadays I've been doing a quick half hour scan of 30, 40, 50 races a day, and then once a horse catches my eye I can see if he then fits the angle, and do some additional capping to see how he measures up if he does fit. It's gotten kinda boring to be honest. Haha. Instead of capping all vs all I've basically narrowed it down to one vs all. But hey, whatever works right. The best thing about this is that very, very few people betting the ponies are even familiar with the two concepts behind the angle (it's never mentioned by any public handicappers or anything), and even of those who may be familiar with it nobody is looking at it like I am.

 

[t6p]

Could I at least feel bad about about our 10/1 shot getting bet all the way down to 3/2 and then proceeds to finish off the board? Haha. Terrible.

Yeah, I've been playing this angle almost exclusively for the past few weeks now and it's been great to me. Even when my inner degenerate came out to expand the angle and betting it more random I was seeing positive results. Works best when I stick to what it is, though. But I've always got positive results when betting this angle even going back a few years. Difference then was that I was driving down to the OTB 2 or 3 times a month playing limited races so I wasn't going to find the horse that fits the angle all that often. Nowadays I've been doing a quick half hour scan of 30, 40, 50 races a day, and then once a horse catches my eye I can see if he then fits the angle, and do some additional capping to see how he measures up if he does fit. It's gotten kinda boring to be honest. Haha. Instead of capping all vs all I've basically narrowed it down to one vs all. But hey, whatever works right. The best thing about this is that very, very few people betting the ponies are even familiar with the two concepts behind the angle (it's never mentioned by any public handicappers or anything), and even of those who may be familiar with it nobody is looking at it like I am.

Haha well on the bright side even if Galilea had won, it wouldn't have been much of a payout.

That's awesome bud, glad to hear it. I'm sure winning $$$ will make up for some of that boredom. And thanks for sharing all of your hard work with us dummies around here.

 

[Sharkey]

Haha well on the bright side even if Galilea had won, it wouldn't have been much of a payout.

That's awesome bud, glad to hear it. I'm sure winning $$$ will make up for some of that boredom. And thanks for sharing all of your hard work with us dummies around here.

Cheers T.

 

[Sharkey]

10-5-4 record now with the last 29 starters who fit this E2 angle. A minimum $2 W/P bet on all 29 of them would have returned $216.20 for your initial $116 investment. Being heavier on the place bets myself I don't get quite that kind of return where I'm doubling up obviously. But I can't complain. Where the hell have all the 2nd place finishes gone, though? I haven't had a E2 horse finish 2nd in nearly 20 races now. That's messed up.

Anyways, three for me that all go later on today;

Gulfstream Race 9 - #5 Boyd Crowder 15/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)
Turfway Park Race 4 - #3 Elegant Thunder 8/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)
Charles Town Race 4 - #1 Furrfield Furrst 8/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)

I doubt my prices get shit on as much as they did yesterday, but if they do in one or two cases then I'll be passing on that race. Putting money on a 10/1 shot that goes off at 3/2 in the end is kinda embarrassing. I'm trying to beat those types bet like that. Not join them.

 

[t6p]

10-5-4 record now with the last 29 starters who fit this E2 angle. A minimum $2 W/P bet on all 29 of them would have returned $216.20 for your initial $116 investment. Being heavier on the place bets myself I don't get quite that kind of return where I'm doubling up obviously. But I can't complain. Where the hell have all the 2nd place finishes gone, though? I haven't had a E2 horse finish 2nd in nearly 20 races now. That's messed up.

Anyways, three for me that all go later on today;

Gulfstream Race 9 - #5 Boyd Crowder 15/1 ($10 to place)
Turfway Park Race 4 - #3 Elegant Thunder 8/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)
Charles Town Race 4 - #1 Furrfield Furrst 8/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)

I doubt my prices get shit on as much as they did yesterday, but if they do in one or two cases then I'll be passing on that race. Putting money on a 10/1 shot that goes off at 3/2 in the end is kinda embarrassing. I'm trying to beat those types bet like that. Not join them.

I'm in. If the prices get worse so be it. GL!

 

[Sharkey]

Anyways, three for me that all go later on today;

Gulfstream Race 9 - #5 Boyd Crowder 15/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)
Turfway Park Race 4 - #3 Elegant Thunder 8/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)
Charles Town Race 4 - #1 Furrfield Furrst 8/1 ($5 to win, $10 to place)

I'm throwing a win bet on the horse at Gulfstream as well @t6p because why the hell not. There's actually quite to bit to like about that guy if he goes off close to his morning line in what looks like a wide open race to me. A couple knocks against him too, but hey, that's what the 15/1 (hopefully) is for. But the horse has won 3 of his last 4. Is only one of two horses in the race to have earned a Brisnet late pace figure of 100+ in any of it's recent races. There looks to be a whole lot of early speed signed on for this race too, and that speed is all lined up on the inner and outer posts, which makes it that much better. So this horse here should have the running style to take advantage of that, as well as the late pace figs to do it well. Good trainer and jockey combination with this guy. Fats workout lasr week finishing 5th of 29 at the distance on the track, which was also noted as a positive workout by the clockers down there. This horse has also been well backed by the public in each of it's last 4 starts never going off at more than 4/1, so that itself hints at some quality. He was 4/1 his last race at Churchill, which took place at the same level today's race is. He was double jumped before that too, which is a confident trainer's move. His last race at Churchill was actually really sneaky good too based on what I saw. Looked like he got squeezed between horses twice on the backstretch. Had to switch out on another entering the turn. Got first run at the leaders by moving too early I thought, and couldn't sustain that run in the late stretch before finishing 4th (on dirt for first time too). That's the race where he fits the E2 angle, so he was also forced to run faster through the early & mid portions of the race than he was used to previous. And that race for him came after he was given an over 2 month break, so maybe his conditioning wasn't up to the task regardless of whatever else happened in the race. Horses who run races like that are basically what this E2 angle was designed for. The concepts being that this horse got the needed conditioner out of running faster than normal throughout a big portion it's last race, gets sharpened up for it's race after that one, and is able to then sustain that late run of theirs instead of fading a bit in the stretch. That's the point where we both say thanks very much for the 15/1 folks. Right?

 

[Sharkey]

Shit, that's a lot of words for a measely little $5 bet. Haha. Yeah well. Maybe I'll gamble a little more today on these guys just for the hell of it.

 

[t6p]

I'm throwing a win bet on the horse at Gulfstream as well @t6p because why the hell not. There's actually quite to bit to like about that guy if he goes off close to his morning line in what looks like a wide open race to me. A couple knocks against him too, but hey, that's what the 15/1 (hopefully) is for. But the horse has won 3 of his last 4. Is only one of two horses in the race to have earned a Brisnet late pace figure of 100+ in any of it's recent races. There looks to be a whole lot of early speed signed on for this race too, and that speed is all lined up on the inner and outer posts, which makes it that much better. So this horse here should have the running style to take advantage of that, as well as the late pace figs to do it well. Good trainer and jockey combination with this guy. Fats workout lasr week finishing 5th of 29 at the distance on the track, which was also noted as a positive workout by the clockers down there. This horse has also been well backed by the public in each of it's last 4 starts never going off at more than 4/1, so that itself hints at some quality. He was 4/1 his last race at Churchill, which took place at the same level today's race is. He was double jumped before that too, which is a confident trainer's move. His last race at Churchill was actually really sneaky good too based on what I saw. Looked like he got squeezed between horses twice on the backstretch. Had to switch out on another entering the turn. Got first run at the leaders by moving too early I thought, and couldn't sustain that run in the late stretch before finishing 4th (on dirt for first time too). That's the race where he fits the E2 angle, so he was also forced to run faster through the early & mid portions of the race than he was used to previous. And that race for him came after he was given an over 2 month break, so maybe his conditioning wasn't up to the task regardless of whatever else happened in the race. Horses who run races like that are basically what this E2 angle was designed for. The concepts being that this horse got the needed conditioner out of running faster than normal throughout a big portion it's last race, gets sharpened up for it's race after that one, and is able to then sustain that late run of theirs instead of fading a bit in the stretch. That's the point where we both say thanks very much for the 15/1 folks. Right?

I added the win bet as well. Thanks for the heads up.

 

[Sharkey]

A Navarro horse is sitting at 20/1 right now at Gulfstream after coming in with a pair of bullet works and with the potential to be sitting lone speed on a track that plays very well to speed. Yeah, this guy is a turd who has been totally off form this year. Then again, so are others in this race. It's quite tempting. I'll probably pass. But if it goes up even more then I might have to take a flyer and bite.