Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[t6p]

Not that that was a trifecta that was much worth getting with a 3/1 over a 2/1 over a 5/2.

Ah, I actually boxed all four horses on my ticket initially but cancelled it. Oh well, no big loss. I'll take the profitable day Shark, thanks!

 

[Sharkey]

Ah, I actually boxed all four horses on my ticket initially but cancelled it. Oh well, no big loss. I'll take the profitable day Shark, thanks!

Yeah, it's not that big a loss, T. Think the tri only paid about 40/1 in the end, so with a 4 horse box costing you $24 you weren't really getting much a deal there. We want better returns than not even doubling our money with trifecta bets like that that's for sure.

 

[t6p]

Yeah, it's not that big a loss, T. Think the tri only paid about 40/1 in the end, so with a 4 horse box costing you $24 you weren't really getting much a deal there. We want better returns than not even doubling our money with trifecta bets like that that's for sure.

Agree 100% bud.

 

[Sharkey]

Agree 100% bud.

I'll try to watch out for you next time, T, by posting the odds as well as the horses when I make plays like that. You basically want 2 of your 4 horses to be at least middling prices or higher to make a 4 horse box worthwhile that way you're guaranteed at least one good price in there if it does hit. Today was a tough day to find any longshot types. At least on the races we bet anyways.

 

[Sharkey]

Nothing but longshots who all ranked 3rd on the numbers for me today at Mahoning Valley (pre-scratches);

==========

Race 1 - #4 Angel Falls 20/1 to place for $5

Race 2 - #5 Making History 15/1 to win/place for $2/$8

Race 4 - #4 Hoarder 8/1 to win place for $5/$10

Race 6 - #5 Yankee Gentleman 20/1 to win/place for $2/$4 plus a pair of $2 exactas with #7 over #4, #5

Race 8 - #11 Weekend Melody 15/1 to win/place for $2/$6 and then a #2, #4, #11 exacta box for $2

==========

Race 4 may also get an exacta box play from me as I have 4 horses all bunched together on the numbers (#2, #4, #5, #6). We'll see what the board says as the race draws near, though, and figure out if it's worthwhile.

Lots of short priced horses are coming into today off long layoffs (some super long) and/or show regressive patterns to their races, so I expect some good payouts today at this track. Just hope I've landed on the right horses that are involved in those payouts.

 

[t6p]

Nothing but longshots who all ranked 3rd on the numbers for me today at Mahoning Valley (pre-scratches);

==========

Race 1 - #4 Angel Falls 20/1 to place for $5

Race 2 - #5 Making History 15/1 to win/place for $2/$8

Race 4 - #4 Hoarder 8/1 to win place for $5/$10

Race 6 - #5 Yankee Gentleman 20/1 to win/place for $2/$4 plus a pair of $2 exactas with #7 over #4, #5

Race 8 - #11 Weekend Melody 15/1 to win/place for $2/$6 and then a #2, #4, #11 exacta box for $2

==========

Race 4 may also get an exacta box play from me as I have 4 horses all bunched together on the numbers (#2, #4, #5, #6). We'll see what the board says as the race draws near, though, and figure out if it's worthwhile.

Lots of short priced horses are coming into today off long layoffs (some super long) and/or show regressive patterns to their races, so I expect some good payouts today at this track. Just hope I've landed on the right horses that are involved in those payouts.

I'm in. Let's do this!

 

[Sharkey]

I'm in. Let's do this!

There's a very real chance we end up with nothing today, T, since we're playing nothing but longshots. You okay with that?

 

[Sharkey]

Ah, why am I even asking that. We're men right here. Real men with balls on us. Big ones. Yeah, that's right. Let's do it, T!

 

[Sharkey]

Ah, why am I even asking that. We're men right here. Real men with balls on us. Big ones. Yeah, that's right. Let's do it, T!

Says the guy who has three little $2 win bets in his plans.

 

[t6p]

I think I've mentioned before @Sharkey, I'm all about the low risk/high reward stuff. If you're confident in your capping you can't ever be scared to lose a bet.

My strategy this year for MMA has been to look for solid underdogs and high value props. It's been working nicely so far.

 

[Sharkey]

I think I've mentioned before @Sharkey, I'm all about the low risk/high reward stuff. If you're confident in your capping you can't ever be scared to lose a bet.

My strategy this year for MMA has been to look for solid underdogs and high value props. It's been working nicely so far.

In that case how about a straight exacta with the #7 over #4 here in race 1? The #5 scratched out, and that was my 2nd ranked horse going, thus moving the #4 up to 2nd. The #7 looks like a very, very solid favourite here too (I basically conceded to this one, thus my place only plan with the #4), and by far the most likely winner. Currently we're getting 18/1 on that exacta, which is quite the good price in what is now a 5 horse field with an odds-on favourite on top.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah, I'd rather cash an 18/1 exacta rather than a maybe 3/1 place bet I think. If the #4 horse does place it's probably to the #7, so why not.

Race 1 - #7 over #4 in the exacta for $5 instead of the place bet

 

[Sharkey]

the #6 over #4, I mean. There's no 7 in this race. Haha.

 

[Sharkey]

Ah, I'm going to miss this Mahoning Valley track once it's racing meet ends, which should be coming up soon. It's a cheap ass track with nothing but cheap horses that run on it. But it's got a certain charm to it that I can't really explain. The pools are fun to bet into just because sometimes the wagering is way out of whack. The track announcer/handicapper, Matt Hook, is a cool guy to listen too, and also a sharp capper who does his homework. And while they're all cheap, there's a lot of really cool and reliable horses that have ran there this winter and spring. When you bet this place as much as I have for the last few months you get to know a whole lot of them. Like Humorous Chant from a couple of days ago. She's just on go right from the time she leaves the gate til the finish line with an enthusiasm for running that you don't see all that often. Brass Buckle yesterday is like the Hoppertunity of Mahoning Valley. Just that old veteran that will give his all no matter what. Sometimes it's good enough. Sometimes it isn't. But he's reliable enough to at least give you a chance to cash your tickets regardless. The horse we're betting today in race 4, Hoarder, is quite similar to Brass Buckle. He's gonna run his race and be picking up ground late no matter what whether his race is good enough or not.

 

[Sharkey]

The #6 did it's job. Unfortunately our longshot didn't. It did give me a little bit of hope when it seemed to be advancing a little while sitting in 3rd around the turn.

 

[Sharkey]

Making History gave us a shot all the way around the track, but only managed 3rd a couple lengths back of the winner at the line. Nice run, though, even if it did come up a little short.

 

[Sharkey]

That's a nice 5/1 show payout on those who backed Making History that way. Not this guy, though.

 

[Sharkey]

 

[t6p]

In that case how about a straight exacta with the #7 over #4 here in race 1? The #5 scratched out, and that was my 2nd ranked horse going, thus moving the #4 up to 2nd. The #7 looks like a very, very solid favourite here too (I basically conceded to this one, thus my place only plan with the #4), and by far the most likely winner. Currently we're getting 18/1 on that exacta, which is quite the good price in what is now a 5 horse field with an odds-on favourite on top.

I had to do some actual work and got pulled away. I would have been in on that for sure so I lucked out I guess, haha.

 

[Sharkey]

I had to do some actual work and got pulled away. I would have been in on that for sure so I lucked out I guess, haha.

I just switched my $5 place into a $5 exacta, T, so I lost the same amount either way.