Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

I was hoping one of the #2, #5, and #6 would have separated themselves as far as odds go here in race 4, and then box the #4 with the two better prices. But all three of those horses are sitting at 3/1 right now, so I have to stick with just betting this #4 horse, Hoarder, straight.

 

[Sharkey]

A meh 4th for Hoarder at 16/1. Was never involved and never looked like he'd get involved either.

 

[Sharkey]

This next longshot in race 6 is the one I was most curious about betting today (My Gentle Yankee). I saw something last night beyond just the numbers that was either a stream of gold or a stream of diarrhea. Not sure which since it was night time and thus dark when I did these races. Hoping to get at least the 20/1 morning line odds to find out what exactly that stream was. Also need a good break from the gate with this horse, which it doesn't always get.

 

[Sharkey]

Stop betting my longshot peoples. Thanks.

 

[Sharkey]

Should have used my nose instead of my eyes to tell me what that stream was.

 

[Sharkey]

Why would anybody take 4/5 on a horse who hasn't raced for a full year and has only had 2 published workouts in the last 5 months. If this was April of 2017 then yeah, 4/5 makes complete sense as this horse would look like clearly the best horse in the race. But 4/5 in April of 2018? I don't care if it wins today or not (and it certainly could based on having big back class advantage). That is a terrible bet.

 

[Sharkey]

One time today, please. Just one time. That's all we need.

 

[Sharkey]

Why would anybody take 4/5 on a horse who hasn't raced for a full year and has only had 2 published workouts in the last 5 months. If this was April of 2017 then yeah, 4/5 makes complete sense as this horse would look like clearly the best horse in the race. But 4/5 in April of 2018? I don't care if it wins today or not (and it certainly could based on having big back class advantage). That is a terrible bet.

These stupid mother fuckers deserved that result. This big favourite finished 9th, I think, only beating one other horse.

Our longshot was in there with a chance the whole way, but lost a little bit late and had to settle for 4th.

 

[Sharkey]

Another small profit on the day. I've been $14, $9, $16, and now $18 to the good the last four days. Better than losing, but I need to do better.

See, that's what sucks about the previous four days and some of the unlucky circumstances we faced (losing photos, finishing close 3rds). I made a small profit for each of them, but I have one day like today where I go oh-for taking a chance with longshots and I'm back to where I started. It sucks.

 

[Sharkey]

Might as well try one more race today since I had the time;

Race 9 at Aqueduct - #7 Curiousncuriouser (6/1) to win/place for $8/$12

 

[Sharkey]

#9 over #2 over #1, #3 in a pair of $2 trifectas here in race 8 at Aqueduct. On the turf.

 

[Sharkey]

Might as well try one more race today since I had the time;

Race 9 at Aqueduct - #7 Curiousncuriouser (6/1) to win/place for $8/$12

6/1 on the morning line. 8/5 to open. Not at that price. I'll wait and see if it's in the 3/1 range before I play otherwise I'll pass.

 

[Sharkey]

I'll try this one more time today before I go back to just betting the bigger stakes races on the weekends. Win bets only for me today for the most part and these aren't taking into account scratches which I haven't looked at yet. I'm guessing one or two of these will have scratched.

==========

Aqueduct;


Race 2 - #3 Swivel 7/2 to win for $10

Race 3 - #5 Wildcat Belle 8/5 over #4 Conquest So True 6/1 and #6 Daring Prospect 4/1 in a pair of $5 exactas

Race 7 - #1 Salty Smile 5/2 to win for $15

Race 8 - #6 May Flowers 7/2 to win for $15

Race 9 - #2 Battle Midway 12/1 to win for $10

==========

Gulfstream;


Race 1 - #8 Song of Melody 8/1 to win for $15

Race 2 - #6 Princess Knoll 7/2 to win for $10

Race 3 - #4 Stronger 9/2 to win for $15

Race 5 - #6 Arpinella 4/1 to win for $10

Race 7 - #1 Barry Karafin Bets 10/1 to win for $5

Race 8 - #7 Furiosa 3/1 to win for $15

==========

Keeneland;


Race 3 - #2 Artegon 4/1 to win for $15

Race 4 - #11 John Tippmann 10/1 to win for $5

Race 6 - #3 Exclamation Point 3/1 to win for $15

Race 7 - #7 Keep Quiet 7/2 to win for $15

Race 8 - #3 Zipp On By 3/1 to win for $15

==========

I have to bet them and forget them today, so some of these are likely to go off shorter that I'd like. But whatever. If they end up as favourites they should be good favourites, so I'll just take what I get. Some of these will go off longer than their morning line as well.

 

[Sharkey]

I got scratches in the first two races at Aqueduct (races 2 and 3), so no plays for me there. The rest are good to go, though.

 

[t6p]

I'll try this one more time today before I go back to just betting the bigger stakes races on the weekends. Win bets only for me today for the most part and these aren't taking into account scratches which I haven't looked at yet. I'm guessing one or two of these will have scratched.

==========

Aqueduct;


Race 2 - #3 Swivel 7/2 to win for $10

Race 3 - #5 Wildcat Belle 8/5 over #4 Conquest So True 6/1 and #6 Daring Prospect 4/1 in a pair of $5 exactas

Race 7 - #1 Salty Smile 5/2 to win for $15

Race 8 - #6 May Flowers 7/2 to win for $15

Race 9 - #2 Battle Midway 12/1 to win for $10

==========

Gulfstream;


Race 1 - #8 Song of Melody 8/1 to win for $15

Race 2 - #6 Princess Knoll 7/2 to win for $10

Race 3 - #4 Stronger 9/2 to win for $15

Race 5 - #6 Arpinella 4/1 to win for $10

Race 7 - #1 Barry Karafin Bets 10/1 to win for $5

Race 8 - #7 Furiosa 3/1 to win for $15

==========

Keeneland;


Race 3 - #2 Artegon 4/1 to win for $15

Race 4 - #11 John Tippmann 10/1 to win for $5

Race 6 - #3 Exclamation Point 3/1 to win for $15

Race 7 - #7 Keep Quiet 7/2 to win for $15

Race 8 - #3 Zipp On By 3/1 to win for $15

==========

I have to bet them and forget them today, so some of these are likely to go off shorter that I'd like. But whatever. If they end up as favourites they should be good favourites, so I'll just take what I get. Some of these will go off longer than their morning line as well.

I'm in on all plays. Thank you sir and good luck.

 

[t6p]

@Sharkey

Looks like Exclamation Point was the only “exclamation point” for us today bud. Oh well, get em next time.

 

[Sharkey]

@Sharkey

Looks like Exclamation Point was the only “exclamation point” for us today bud. Oh well, get em next time.

Yeah, I just got home and saw that, T. That's brutal. My account was sitting so healthy at well over $700 not two weeks ago. Now it's shrunk all the way down to $162. This recent bad run has basically killed it for me.

 

[t6p]

Yeah, I just got home and saw that, T. That's brutal. My account was sitting so healthy at well over $700 not two weeks ago. Now it's shrunk all the way down to $162. This recent bad run has basically killed it for me.

Sorry to hear that Shark, that's frustrating. I'm sure you'll recover though. Maybe focusing in on the weekend races like you mentioned is the way to go.

 

[Sharkey]

Sorry to hear that Shark, that's frustrating. I'm sure you'll recover though. Maybe focusing in on the weekend races like you mentioned is the way to go.

Cheers T. I may have to do that. Or at the very least be a lot more selective in what races I bet.

 

[Sharkey]

This guy is never going to figure it out is he?

https://www.xbtv.com/video/workout/...113-60-on-april-8th-2018-at-santa-anita-park/

He'll be a play against for me in the Arkansas Derby as the 2nd choice even though I have a futures bet on him for the Derby. I'll probably play against both the 3rd and likely 4th choices in Quip and Tenfold as well, while conceding the race to the favourite, Magnum Moon. I think my plan will be to try to get Combatant or Dream Baby Dream home second behind that one in the exacta. Could pay quite nicely if it does hit, especially if it's Dream Baby Dream finishing 2nd.

There's another 3 year-old stakes race on the undercard which looks quite interesting (the Northern Spur), and which features Title Ready as the probably heavy favourite. But I'm likely to try to beat him with the other Asmussen horse in the race, Ego Trip, who's 8/1 on the morning line. That one just broke his maiden in his last race at 9 furlongs in a race where he closed from the back third of the pack into a moderate (at best) pace. The horses that were sitting 1st, 2nd, 3rd early all finished 2nd, 3rd and 4th, so the race shape heavily favoured the early front runners. Ego Trip made a big run in the stretch, though, and did so with a very impressive turn of foot in only his 2nd lifetime start.

Race starts at the 11:00 mark;



The leader hit the mile mark in 1:38.42 and Ego Trip was still 3+ lengths back at the time. Ego Trip crossed the line in 1:51.04. That basically means that Ego Trip ran the last furlong in about 12 seconds flat earning a Brisnet late pace figure of 109. Now that is a closer. He should get a pace to run at on Satruday too with at least four horses in the race that do their best running while up close or on the early lead. As the most expensive horse in the race ($600k) he's expected to run very well in races like this too.