Official UFC on Fox 15 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

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Ukram said:
Any reason why though?

I have noticed sometimes there lines are more open and active compared to whill but then sometimes its the opposite way round...
I find it hard to look in 3-4 places at the same time however so tricky to gauge which site is better :icon_conf
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They keep it open during rounds and dont suspend betting as often for shit like a takedown. All other sites I have seen the livebetting essentially only works in between rounds as they suspend it the second anything happens.
 
EckY said:
They keep it open during rounds and dont suspend betting as often for shit like a takedown. All other sites I have seen the livebetting essentially only works in between rounds as they suspend it the second anything happens.
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That sounds too good to be true :) Can you do big bets like 2k ?
 
Just noticed that Luca Fury's twitter account has been suspended, anyone know why?
 
vkram said:
Just noticed that Luca Fury's twitter account has been suspended, anyone know why?
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https://www.furysfightpicks.com/what-happened-to-the-furys-fight-picks-twitter-accounts/

On Monday I awoke to find the Twitter accounts for @FurysFightPicks, @TheMMAOddsCast and @FFPAlerts had been suspended for no reason. Obviously I was not in violation of Twitter rules on any of them, let alone all three. After contacting Twitter it turns out that a very common mistake occurred.

They have various algorithms in place to detect spam accounts. These are not perfect, however, and often mistake real users for spam bots. This happens if multiple users from the same computer tweet out too many of the same links, which obviously occurred since myself and FFP have three Twitter accounts that I use to tweet links out for the main site, The MMA OddsCast and premium bet alerts.

So, that
 
I haven't done any MMA betting for ages, can someone tell me why Felice is the underdog?

Felice/Cummings/Cub all seem like good bets.
 
XociDe said:
I haven't done any MMA betting for ages, can someone tell me why Felice is the underdog?

Felice/Cummings/Cub all seem like good bets.
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Theres like 3 longish breakdowns already posted. Just search the thread mang.
 
Ukram said:
That sounds too good to be true :) Can you do big bets like 2k ?
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i never tried 2k bets but when i started with them i could do some big bets. now my limits is around 50-125$ :( but everytime the line changes the limit is reset
 
was cummins always scheduled to fight OSP or did one of them fill in for an injury?
 
roht0 said:
How will OSP get a close decision? I think if OSP wins it's by stoppage, I don't see OSP out pointing cummins.
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He won a round vs bader, who is pretty much a much better version of cummings.
OSP is not a monster puncher like Rumble either.
 
I rarely ever post my bets simply due to jinxy-brain, but I won a bunch of money last week. Because of that, I am willing to take chances with my bets this week, as well as face the dragon of jinxes. I might look like a fool in the end, but It's so annoying not being able to share with y'all when you're talking about your bets.

$10 each
Machida +123
Swanson -147
Herrig +115
Herrig/Vanzant Inside Distance +135
Miller +150
Cummins/OSP Dec -145 (my least favorite bet I made)
Sterling NoDec +210
Brandao -170
Parlay: Machida, Swanson, Herrig, Miller. +2815
 
I want to put a small bet on Herrig. Should I bet now or wait for a better line? How do you guys think the line will move?
 
Jae Gibbz said:
I want to put a small bet on Herrig. Should I bet now or wait for a better line? How do you guys think the line will move?
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I have a feeling it won't stay on her being an underdog by fight-time. To be honest though, these lines guys are sometimes nutso bananas. Other times they have the inside scoop on tough camps or tough weight-cuts. So you really can never know for sure. We saw how wrong they were on Calderwood. I called my guy and said, "that line needs to be halved at least!" because his Casino was giving -850 to Calderwood and +620 for Moroz. They didn't listen. Took a bath on that one.

(And before I sound too gloaty, I told him in the same conversation that I thought the Baczynski line was wrong on the O/U because the American-Pol was going to grind the first two rounds as best he could, and lose a decision..... so I'm only smart half the time)

Anyway, The line for Herrig is favorable enough that I was willing to put down my standard investment. Any more and I would have been concerned there was an injury or people knew something I didn't. I believe linesmakers see her judo throws and subs from the bottom as the asset. But Herrig, IMO, has stronger takedowns, better top control, and generally more strength/power. In my eyes, Herrig just has more ways to win and a straight-line to the victory. And since I don't like Herrig in general, I know that's a sincere perspective. So I was comfortable at the + line and wouldn't wait any longer for it to move around IF you're going to bet on her anyway.
 
MilesAbove said:
Anyway, The line for Herrig is favorable enough that I was willing to put down my standard investment. Any more and I would have been concerned there was an injury or people knew something I didn't. I believe linesmakers see her judo throws and subs from the bottom as the asset.
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I think it's just based on hype or whatever. Oddsmakers dun goofed IMO. It does happen. The only 'skill' VanZant has ever shown is wall n' stall which, to be fair, she is not bad at. But I don't see her winning 3 rds vs Felice with that. Felice is stronger and much more experienced. She has a chance of catching Felice in a sub but only a slight one. Other than that she has no chance. It's worth adding (also relevant to the odds i.e. why they are that way) that in the Sherdog poll for this bout, although most picked VanZant, literally every username I spotted that I consider knowledgeable about the fighters picked Felice.

The line is what I was dreaming of (slightly better actually) and I will probably risk a huge amount on this one. This post and yours may jinx that but since Luca Fury picked VanZant I feel that overpowers our jinx voodoo :icon_chee
 
Just put 1u in each of these:
- Miller +150
- Mizigaki +240

Dariush on short notice and Sterling being green as he is, they should not be that big of favs.
 
MilesAbove said:
I have a feeling it won't stay on her being an underdog by fight-time. To be honest though, these lines guys are sometimes nutso bananas. Other times they have the inside scoop on tough camps or tough weight-cuts. So you really can never know for sure. We saw how wrong they were on Calderwood. I called my guy and said, "that line needs to be halved at least!" because his Casino was giving -850 to Calderwood and +620 for Moroz. They didn't listen. Took a bath on that one.

(And before I sound too gloaty, I told him in the same conversation that I thought the Baczynski line was wrong on the O/U because the American-Pol was going to grind the first two rounds as best he could, and lose a decision..... so I'm only smart half the time)

Anyway, The line for Herrig is favorable enough that I was willing to put down my standard investment. Any more and I would have been concerned there was an injury or people knew something I didn't. I believe linesmakers see her judo throws and subs from the bottom as the asset. But Herrig, IMO, has stronger takedowns, better top control, and generally more strength/power. In my eyes, Herrig just has more ways to win and a straight-line to the victory. And since I don't like Herrig in general, I know that's a sincere perspective. So I was comfortable at the + line and wouldn't wait any longer for it to move around IF you're going to bet on her anyway.
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Xuh said:
I think it's just based on hype or whatever. Oddsmakers dun goofed IMO. It does happen. The only 'skill' VanZant has ever shown is wall n' stall which, to be fair, she is not bad at. But I don't see her winning 3 rds vs Felice with that. Felice is stronger and much more experienced. She has a chance of catching Felice in a sub but only a slight one. Other than that she has no chance. It's worth adding (also relevant to the odds i.e. why they are that way) that in the Sherdog poll for this bout, although most picked VanZant, literally every username I spotted that I consider knowledgeable about the fighters picked Felice.

The line is what I was dreaming of (slightly better actually) and I will probably risk a huge amount on this one. This post and yours may jinx that but since Luca Fury picked VanZant I feel that overpowers our jinx voodoo :icon_chee
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Thanks for the input, guys. I'm also banking on Herrig's strength and experience. I'll just drop my bet now. Going Herrig .5u and Herrig DEC .5u. Might add .25u to each if line moves favorably.

Oh, and if anybody is planning on betting Paige, I'd advise betting on her by DEC
 
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