Did you watch the weigh-ins? Zeferino is much taller than Bradley and looked ripped in fantastic shape, although Bradley is very heavily muscled himself at his height and thicker. I think Zeferino's previous opponent Jason High is a much better boxer and striker than Paul Bradley is. Zeferino can win this on the feet in my opinion, has the ability to avoid getting taken down easily to his back and has a huge advantage on the ground on top with his submissions.
Yeah, I had another paragraph on that but decided to delete. Of course Zeferino is ripped - he is cutting virtually nothing, so he will basically look like that at fight time, while Bradley confirmed he was 190 after rehydrating. Joao never uses boxing in a sustained way, except against High, so expecting him to outpoint on the feet is incorrect imo. It's always strike, strike, and get into the clinch for a takedown - even with High, who he realized he could hit, he still sought the ground. I think Bradley is better than High standing - no way I can see High hanging (and finishing) with Chris Honeycutt, or even Yushin Okami on the feet.
If Joao has no success getting a takedown, he will lose on the feet handily imo. Or at least grinded against the cage. Joao is finish or lose, and I don't see that materializing here.